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oghedien's source

by scope: 2004-04-30 | Not yet rated

Previous Categories: Forsaken Schemes: What Are They Planning?

Moghedien knows some very sensitive information, knowing how she got it may have significance to events that occur in Caemlyn.

“Al'Thor means to go after Rahvin. Today. This morning. Because he thinks Rahvin killed Morgase. I don't know whether he did or not, but al'Thor believes it. But Rahvin never trusted Lanfear. He never trusted any of them. Why should he? He thought it all might be some trap set for him, so he has laid a trap of his own. He has set Wards through Caemlyn so if a man channels a spark he will know. Al'Thor will walk right into it. He almost certainly already has. I think he meant to leave Cairhien right after sunrise. I had no part of it.”

TFoH. Ch54. ‘To Caemlyn'

This passage shows that Moghedien has had some very recent and accurate information on both the actions of a fellow forsaken and on the plans of Rand.

So the questions are.

1- How does Moghedien know Rand means to attack Rahvin? (Cairhien)

2- How does she know of Rahvin's preparations? (Caemlyn)

Firstly from the Moghedien side of it. How has Moghedien been gathering information? There's no real possibility that she has been to either Cairhien or Caemlyn personally as she is caught up in her personal vendetta with Nynaeve and Birgitte and is posing as Maigan. It would be foolhardy and very unlike the ‘spider' to go Gateing around especially from a Salidar full of Aes Sedai to a Caihien full of the Dragon Reborn.

The second possibility is that Moghedien has spies in either or both locations. This again would seem unlikely; she had her center of operations in Tanchico, a long way distant from both Caemlyn and Cairhien.

The main route of information for Moghedien has been spying in Ter'aran'rhiod, Nynaeve and Birgitte have seen her watching Lanfear, Rahvin, Sammael and Graendal.

‘Below them, Moghedien also stood on darkness, garbed nearly as black as what surrounded her, bent and listening intently. And as far below her, four huge, high backed chairs, each different, sat on an expanse of glistening white-tiled floor floating in the blackness. Strangely, Nynaeve could hear what those in the chairs said as well as if she had been among them'

TFoH. Ch 34. A Silver Arrow

So it is possible that Moghedien has seen people discussing the information. However it is hard to see what group of people she could have overheard. The only grouping that may work I'll consider right at the end.

The most likely source of the information for Moghedien is that someone told her directly. Let's consider the timing.

The news of Morgase's ‘death' and the decision to attack Rahvin the next morning is made sometime in the afternoon / evening and at Moiraine's urging is set for the following morning. Next morning Lanfear and Moiraine take their tumble through the ter'angreal on the docks. Then Rand leaves with the chosen Aiel, Aviendha, Mat and Asmodean for Caemlyn. At roughly the same time Nynaeve captures Moghedien. So there was only one night for that information to spread.

We can eliminate Moghedien overseeing any meeting between the good guys in Ter'aran'rhiod because no such meeting took place. We can almost certainly discount Asmodean as it would not be in his best interests. So we can probably assume that there is either another spy or that there is a Forsaken in the nest. Whatever the primary source of the information for Rand's intention it was almost certainly passed on by another Forsaken to Moghedien.

Further I think we can narrow it down to four, those directly involved in the Illian plot as they were the ones most involved with the events. I'll cover each of these in turn.....

Lanfear. She was in Cairhien witness the confrontation at the docks and she was the instigator of the Illian plot (TFoH Prologue) so she was in a position to find out about Rand's plan. But why would she pass any information about Rand to Moghedien. Also why would she be discussing any such received information with anyone else and not with Rahvin and the others involved in the plot? It also makes no sense that she would know such potentially explosive information and then wander down to the Cairhien docks to check on Kadere. Specifically a quote:

‘By showing your obedience to my commands. I have been too busy to watch Rand al'Thor myself. Tell me what he has done, aside from conquering Cairhien, what he plans to do'

TFoH. Ch52. ‘Choices'

Sammael. He does have a spy in Cairhien (if we assume Melindhra was sent by him) however she dies before she can report anything. Sammael is actually shown depending on others to do his spying:

‘“Have you learned where al'Thor is hiding Asmodean? Or anything of Lanfear's whereabouts? Or Moghedien's?.....”'

‘“You know as much as I do” Graendal said blithely.'

LoC. Ch6. ‘Threads Woven of Shadow'

On the subject of Rahvin's preparations. Sammael would not have been able to visit there to discover them as they would have been triggered by his channeling. There would also be no real reason for Rahvin to tell him. Sammael was concentrating on preparing the trap in Illian in expectation of Rand's attack. Why would he have told Moghedien?

Rahvin. Well he definitely knew about his own preparations and was suspicious of his allies fearing an attack. However if he found out about Rand's intentions would he have been alone in Caemlyn? Was he alone in Caemlyn? As with Sammael why would he have told Moghedien?

Graendal. Now there is no direct information that shows Graendal was the source of Moghedien's information, but she has one advantage over all the other candidates. She did meet Moghedien.

‘“Rahvin is dead, Great Lord. Yesterday.” There was pain. Euphoria too strong became pain quickly. His arms and legs twitched. He was sweating, now. “Lanfear has vanished without a trace, just as Asmodean did. And Graendal says Moghedien failed to meet her as they had agreed. Also yesterday, Great Lord. I do not believe in coincidence”' LoC Prologue.

Two points from this.

1- Moghedien and Graendal had met and agreed to meet again

2- Graendal met with Demandred

In addition, of all the Forsaken, Graendal is the one that speaks to the most of the others. It would not be surprising if she had had one on ones with Rahvin and thus learned about his preparations. From Sammael's demand for information from her (see above) it seems as she has good sources (probably from those under Compulsion) and could have agents in Cairhien, perhaps even among the Aiel. A problem as with Sammael and Rahvin is why she would of told Moghedien? But she's always liked having her fingers in many pies.

Rahvin and Graendal Moghedien could have overheard a meeting between these two, but as she was meeting Graendal anyway it seems a little less likely then Graendal just telling her.

So this is my theory

1- Rahvin prepares his defenses.

2- He tells Graendal of his concerns. Along the lines of ‘I'll be damned if I get caught out'

3- Rand hears of Morgase's ‘death' and decides to attack Rahvin.

4- The information passed to the Aiel societies and through some route to Graendal's ears sometime over the evening / morning.

5- Graendal is meeting with Moghedien in Ter'aran'rhiod and passes over the information

6- (Lanfear / Moiraine at the docks)

7- Moghedien is captured and misses next meeting

8- (Rahvin balefired)

9- Graendal meets Demandred.

Now what was the point of all this. Well if Graendal has the sources to know what the Dragon Reborn plans to do within 12 hours of him deciding, what else does she know. Did she know that the Dragon Reborn's faithfully gleeman was accompanying him? Does she know who Natael is? Was it Graendal who not only passed on the information of Moghedien's non appearance to Demandred but also the news of Rahvin's death? Did she in fact also report that to the DO at her own meeting?

‘Only she herself knew that she had made her own journey to Shayol Ghul and down to the lake of fire. Only she knew that the Great Lord had all but promised to name her Nae'blis,'

LoC. Ch 6.Threads Woven in Shadow.

Was Graendal in Caemlyn? Did she meet an old friend, briefly.
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Comments

1

Tamyrlin: 2004-07-20

(Frenzy for Tamyrlin)
nice one, scope. This demonstrates how downright sneaky Graendal is. She's managed to play all the Forsaken factions against each other, used Moghedien's abilities and the others' opinions of her to her advantage. Genius. Here's hoping the Great Lord doesn't squander such a valuable resource.
some minor nitpicks:
Moghedien COULD gate from Salidar, someone as careful as she could blend her channeling in with the general background channeling, even as much Power as a Gateway needs. But you're right, it's more the Spider's M.O. to use tel'aran'rhiod to do her snooping.
2. again, Moghedien doesn't need convential means to gather data. She can pull her informants into t'a'r and pick their brains there. So being 'based' in Tanchico isn't a hinderance.
Moghedien probably collected a lot of bits and pieces, and Graendal probably surreptitiously guided her interpretation of that information.

2

charliec: 2004-07-20

Genuinely excellent analysis! I don't have anything to add beyond Frenzy's points, just wanted to say I'm impressed...

3

Callandor: 2004-07-20

**The second possibility is that Moghedien has spies in either or both locations. This again would seem unlikely; she had her center of operations in Tanchico, a long way distant from both Caemlyn and Cairhien.**

Really? Odd that her center of operations would be in Tanchico, when she took control of the Black Ajah, after posing as their servant of course, in Amador.

**The most likely source of the information for Moghedien is that someone told her directly. Let's consider the timing.**

.... Wouldn't that mean she would have to leave Salidar?

**It also makes no sense that she would know such potentially explosive information and then wander down to the Cairhien docks to check on Kadere.**

.... And why not?

Lanfear has this explosive informationa that Rand is going to go and attack Rahvin, which is totally against her plan of him to go attack Sammael. Why wouldn't she go there and try to sway Rand into going to Sammael?

**‘By showing your obedience to my commands. I have been too busy to watch Rand al'Thor myself. Tell me what he has done, aside from conquering Cairhien, what he plans to do'**

She could be iffy about false information. She could see Rand massing a strike at somewhere, but it could be to add to the Sammael attack.

**2- He tells Graendal of his concerns. Along the lines of ‘I'll be damned if I get caught out'**

Why would Rahvin tell Graendal? Why would he tell anyone?

**Now what was the point of all this. Well if Graendal has the sources to know what the Dragon Reborn plans to do within 12 hours of him deciding, what else does she know. Did she know that the Dragon Reborn's faithfully gleeman was accompanying him? Does she know who Natael is? Was it Graendal who not only passed on the information of Moghedien's non appearance to Demandred but also the news of Rahvin's death? Did she in fact also report that to the DO at her own meeting?**

Uh huh.... Does she know of Rand's toenail problem? Does she know he doesn't have a nail clipper?

The fact that Graendal was waiting for a meeting with Moghedien, kinda gives her an alibi to not go to Caemlyn. Then her meeting with Demandred, which is only after Rahvin is balefired due to your own intepretation, in which you suppose she is the source of both pieces of information.

Is she an information broker? Strange that now a days she is almost totally against this. Quite strange that Graendal is the super-spy-networker, when it is associated with Moghedien.

4

Anubis: 2004-07-21

moghedien ran a spy network in the AOL if memory serves. i would imagine that one of the first things she did upon release was to get as many eyes and ears in good locations as possible.

5

ilgross: 2004-07-21

Even though Moggy was based mainly in Tarabon and Salidar, doesn't mean that she was devoid of any intel in other parts of the world.

Any Forsaken worth their salt would be putting as many informants into Rand's Camp as possible this inculdes grapping some Dark-Aiel into the dream world and talking to them there.

While your theroy is good, it is quite possible the Moggy simply interrogated one of the Dark-Aiel as part of general intel of Rand.

No matter where you are based, Rand has shown the Forsaken he can strike anywhere, anytime. They would be stupid not to have informants in his camp.

Besides your theory does require a fair bit a cooperation between the Forsaken, which as far as we have seen as been noticably lacking. If I was a Forsaken (keep on dreaming...) I would never share intel when Rand is about to wack on the Forsaken and thus reduce the playing field a bit.

Hell I probably wouldn't share any info full stop.

6

scope: 2004-07-21

**Really? Odd that her center of operations would be in Tanchico, when she took control of the Black Ajah, after posing as their servant of course, in Amador.**

Fair point, but thats still not close to either Cairhien of Caemlyn. As far as I can remember Moghedien has had no recorded connection with the more northerly cities.

**.... Wouldn't that mean she would have to leave Salidar? **

Not really, a meeting in Ter'aran'rhiod could be face to face and Moghedien could Dream her way there while in Salidar.

** Lanfear has this explosive informationa that Rand is going to go and attack Rahvin, which is totally against her plan of him to go attack Sammael. Why wouldn't she go there and try to sway Rand into going to Sammael? **

Well if she wanted to sway Rand's opinion wouldn't she have been more likely to pop in to see him in the middle of the night, rather then wander down to a crowded dock for a chat.

Also the quote 'I have been too busy to watch Rand al'Thor myself' pretty much rules out her knowing.

** Why would Rahvin tell Graendal? Why would he tell anyone? **

Another fair point, however he must of told someone. Only another male channeler would be able to detect wards set against Saidin, and would most likely set them of while looking. To me it seems more likely that Rahvin would inform one of his fellow conspirators rather then Moghedien.

** The fact that Graendal was waiting for a meeting with Moghedien, kinda gives her an alibi to not go to Caemlyn **

Not really, the meeting with Moghedien could of been, for the sake of argument, late afternoon. Moghedien's no-show would then have not have come to Graendal attention till after the events in Cairhien which occured in the morning.

** Then her meeting with Demandred, which is only after Rahvin is balefired due to your own intepretation, in which you suppose she is the source of both pieces of information**

Her meeting with Demandred could well have come the day after, before Demandred goes to Shayol Ghul. He only refers to events that occured 'yesterday' and does not say when he met Graendal. This can lead to the assumption that Graendal could of told Demandred of Rahvin's demise.

** Is she an information broker? Strange that now a days she is almost totally against this. Quite strange that Graendal is the super-spy-networker, when it is associated with Moghedien.**

Moghedien's reputation as a spinner of webs, the master manipulator behind the scenes, is just that, a reputation. When we consider her actions in the books she pretty much goes from one blunder to another. When she isn't being captured she's chasing around on a personal vendetta like a headless chicken.

As to Graendal being an 'information broker' well, name one Forsaken that has been involved with more of the others?

7

Great Lord of the Dark: 2004-07-21

Very impressive. Only thing I'll mention is that Moghedien could probably detect the Caemlyn defenses in T'A'R, since they would exist there as well, so no info need be transmitted, just deductions made by her.

8

Illuminati: 2004-07-21

And here's a different take on it.

Moridin watching from the shadows seeing that Lanfear, Sammael, Graendal and Rahvin's plan is very much real and working. This is a serious threat to his Naeblis plans (if they had succeded Moridin would not had been Naeblis, most likely Sammael or Lanfear would) so he uses his DF operativs and plant the rumour in Cairhien hoping that Rand will take the bait and foil the trap. Mogheiden the everwatching knows from her spying that Rahvin has defenses up just in case (most military leader forsaken have shown to have defenses just in case in the series, it isn't too hard to figure this out). How she know about the surprise attack is an open question but you could just as easily assume that one of the DF operatives Moridin used to spread the rumour also reported to Mogheiden and voala you have the source. We have seen this to be true on numerous occasions aswell, DF operatives reporting to more than one forsaken. And she can easily meet this operative in his/her dreams giving her time to gain the information in time for this all to work out aswell.

Now, Moridin still observing from the shadows see his plane working, Rand totally changing focus, travels to Caemlyn and disables some of these traps (he still doesn't want the dragon dead at this point remember and he's not allowed to kill off forsaken, but there is nothing in the forsaken agreement about weaking another so someone else kills him) watch the showdown (the silverfishes anyone?) and see Rand balefire Rahvin. God, balanced restored and Moridin is again ahead in the game. And ofcorse why not wack of that traitor Asmodean while at it so the disciple Taim can start moving and cause unpreceded chaos in the world.

And all the while doing this he never even let anyone suspect he was back, except one. Asmodean.

Have fun. Greandal did it supporters will have to do better than this to get ahead of the Taim did it or Ishamael did it fans. ;)

9

Callandor: 2004-07-22

**Moghedien's reputation as a spinner of webs, the master manipulator behind the scenes, is just that, a reputation. When we consider her actions in the books she pretty much goes from one blunder to another. When she isn't being captured she's chasing around on a personal vendetta like a headless chicken.**

And yet, she was single handedly responcible for the entire Shadow spy network. Or is that just reputation?

10

a dragonburned fool: 2004-07-23

Moghedien definitely has some spy-network in different places of the Westlands, including somebody around Rand, and she would most likely contact her spies picking them out from their dreams. I agree also with arguments that Graendal met with Moghedien before Rand's attack against Caemlyn, and that Graendal told her something (maybe for to pay with information for information: information trade would be good motive to contact Moghedien).

About Rahvin's preparations it's not easy to get direct information about it, because I don't believe Rahvin would speak about that to anybody. But the fact that he begins to mistrust Lanfear, Sammael and Graendal could be detected only by eavesdropping at their negotiations (what Moghedien already has done, and most likely she regulary did it). Rahvin also needed to move large number of Trollocs to Caemlyn (he would did it very soon before the time of the attack, because it would be not very convenient to keep many Trollocs in the palace of a big city hidden for long time), and that movement of Trollocs could be detected. Such movement of Trollocs would mean that Rahvin intends to have battle soon, most possibly in Caemlyn, i.e. one can guess that Rahvin is expecting attack against Caemlyn soon. Once it is guessed it is not easy to figure out that Rahvin will cover Caemlyn with saidin detectors, because everybody on his place would make so (Rand has also no problems to guess that Sammael would cover Illian with saidin detectors, Rand hasn't any direct information about Sammael's preparations, but it was obvious Sammael will do so, and Sammael actually did so), it's a necessary preparation for such a case, it's obvious Rahvin would do so.

About Rand's attack against Caemlyn - Far Dareis Mai were not intended to know about but they found it out, so there were possibilities for a spy to learn it. Especially if it was an Aiel DF. We don't know even did Melindra really don't know about the Caemlyn attack when she met Mat, or her questions were only for to find out, would Mat specifically take part in this attack.

11

wattj69: 2004-07-24

One MAJOR problem with the "moridin did it" idea. how would Asmodean recognize him? his last words wouldn't make any sense. we've already seen that forsaken brought back to life aren't recognizable by others. Moghedien thought she could push Moridin around when first she saw him, everyone thought "Cyndane" was from the third age when they first saw her. there is no way that Asmodean could see some random man and automatically know it's Ishy. just doesn't work.

12

Kristin: 2004-08-04

Moggy does potentially have a black ajah source in Caemlyn. Before she was captured, she gave all the black ajah with Liandrin secret, individual instructions. After that, it seemed like they all just scattered in different directions. In one of the later books, there is mention of a woman in Camelyn who feeds stray cats, a rather distinctive feature of one member of Liandrin's old crowd...coincidence? probably not.

(Sorry to be so vague... I'll look for the references over the weekend if anybody wants the details...)

13

Lauric: 2004-08-10

"Caemlyn held too many rumors of Aes Sedai already as it was, another reason he had planned to go out. Alanna and Verin and the Two Rivers girls had grown into half the Tower, by the word in the streets, and there were plenty of other tales of Aes Sedai sneaking into the city, sneaking through the gates in the night. **That story of an Aes Sedai Healing stray cats was so prevalent he could almost believe in her himself, but all Bashere's efforts to track the tale down provided as much substance as the tale that the women who escorted the Dragon Reborn everywhere were really Aes Sedai in disguise.**"

LoC, Chapter 42 "The Black Tower" p. 756.

It seems out unusually compassionate Black Sister is somewhere in Caemlyn. But is she Moggy's spy? At the time they were sent, Rand hadn't taken Caemlyn yet.

14

RogueSavior: 2004-08-26

Why couldn't Moghedien just have gated around using the True Source? At this point she's still in the DO's favor, right?

15

Callandor: 2004-08-26

**Why couldn't Moghedien just have gated around using the True Source? At this point she's still in the DO's favor, right?**

She's terrorfied of it.

**TITLE: A Crown of Swords

CHAPTER: 25 - Mindtrap

The ledge on which she lay projected above a black-mottled red loake of molten rock where flames the size of men danced and died and reappeared. Overhead, the cavern rose roofless through the mountain toa sky where wild cloud raced, striated red and yellow and black, as if on the winds of time themselves. It was not the dark-clouded sky seen outside on Shayol Ghul. Non of that earned a second glance, snf not just because she had seen it many times. The Bore into the Great Lord's place of imprisonment was no closer here than anywhere else in the world, but here she could feel it, here she could bathe in the radiant glory of the Great Lord. The True Power washed around her, so strong here that attempting to channel it would fry her to a cinder. *Not that she had any desire to pay the price elsewhere either.***

Also, RJ states it simply ;):

**Q: Can you use the TP in the Stedding?

A: ye....er...RAFO. You must be a stone cold fanatic to *want* to use the TP. *Moggy is terrified of it. Avoids it.***