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rtur Hawkwing, Failed Prophecies, and the 2nd Dragon

by Elder Haman: 2004-07-08 | Not yet rated

Previous Categories: Miscellaneous

Okay- I don't know if I believe this myself, but it struck me so powerfully that I think it should be presented for discusion.

There were three things that sparked this idea inside my head:

1: Artur Hawkwing tells Rand that they have fought against each other.

2: In another theory someone asked what would have happened if Rand had not been born on the Dragon Mount. (Sorry I can't remember who to give credit, it was a long time ago.)

3: RJ made a statement that the soul of Lews Therin/Rand is not always reborn as the Dragon

This led me to this theory, with several sub-points:

Guaire Amalasan (The Second Dragon) was a non-Dragon rebirth of Lews Therin's soul.

Sub-point A: Guaire could have been born as the Dragon, except that the prophecies of the Dragon's birth failed to be fullfilled.

Sub-point B: The War of The Second Dragon could have been the Last Battle if Guaire had been born as the Dragon.

Sub-Point C: This failure of the prophecies was an error in the Pattern- requiring both the defeat of the false Dragon, and the groundwork laid for Guaire to be reborn in a manner fullfilling the prophecies.

Sub-Point D: Arthur Hawkwing was born purposefully to correct this error in the pattern by defeating the false Dragon. Which required a powerful ta'varen.

Sub-point E: If Rand's birth had not fullfilled the prophecies he would not be the Dragon.

Sub-Point F: Rand's fullfillment of the Prophecies is complicit in the weakening of the seals.

There are some further reasons for believing this:

1: This was around the time when Ishmael temporarily broke free from his prison- I am theorizing that these periods of partial freedom were "critical points" in time- a time period when events and history had reached a point were the last battle was a possibility.

2: Guaire appears to be the first and greatest "false" Dragon, and all others since have imitated him.

3: It explains why a ta'varen as powerful as Artur Hawkwing was required.

I know I had some other reasons supporting this- but I can't remember the right now. Maybe everyone out there in Theoryland will have some insight.
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Comments

1

Tamyrlin: 2004-09-24

(Frenzy for Tamrylin)
Someone slightly beat you to this, Elder Haman. Here's the link: http://www.theoryland.com/chronicles.php?user=uno&page=c
Uno looked at the Hawkwing-Amalasan causal relationship in the opposite light, though. Interesting.
But since Uno's theory first appeared five years ago, why don't we dust it off, add your insights, and re-post it.

2

Cor Shan: 2004-09-27

As well, what about the Trolloc wars? Ishy was free then hmm?

3

Jumai: 2004-09-29

A small thing I noticed that could be of relevance here:

Lews Therin is confident around 3 Aes Sedai. 5 has him uneasy. When 7 confront Rand in the royal palace of Camelyn, he goes berserk, but settles down once Rand reminds him of the angreal.

During the War of the Second Dragon, 6 Aes Sedai attempted to capture Guire, who stilled 3 and captured the other 3. Stilling 3 of them could be an indication he was desperate and lashing out as hard as he could because he was at his limit (or else he was super angry, but decided to stop severing people after 3).

Their strength appears to be extremely similar.

4

Flinn Sedai: 2004-09-30

**Their strength appears to be extremely similar. **

This point is completely irrelevant, as Rand has compared strength with Taim, and Taim is almost as strong. As well, Logain is roughly the same strength as Taim, as Taim is afraid of Logain. 3 people born who are extremely strong. All about the same strength as the Dragon Reborn. Makes Amalsalan seem like just a coincidence huh?

5

allahn: 2004-10-07

Coincidence, unless you take into account that, in this age, there seems to be many women Elayne and Nyneave run across around their same age that are nearly as strong in the Power as they themselves seem to be.

One such case I can quote from TPoD, hardback, pg 72, first para: "...Rainyn (apprentice of Renaile, Windfinder to the Wavemistress of the Sea Folk) was easily as strong as Lelaine or Romanda, and Metarra on a level with Elayne herself, while Talaan.... Talaan, so meek in her red linen blouse, with eyes that seemed permanently downcast, came very close to Nyneave. Very close. More, Elayne knew herself had not yet reached her full potential, and neither had Nyneave. How close where Metarra and Talaan?"

Just a thought... =)

6

enigma: 2004-10-11

I agree that Guaire Amalasan was probably close to Rand's strenght ie forsaken class but then any of the successful false dragons would have had to be strong to last long enough as long as they did. If they were average stenght for a man they would have been taken by Aes Sedai possibly even before they declared themselves but certain once word got out who and what they were. Consider Taim and Logain. Both lasted at least a few years before they were taken. While none are exactly as strong as Rand they are strong enought to give six Aes Sedai a run for their money.

If LTT had been Guaire Amalasan why did Hawkwing and the other Heoroes refer to Rand as LTT. I though the practice was to refer to the soul by its most recent name. If LTT was the most recent incarnation he could not have been any of the false dragons.

7

Aiel Finn: 2005-04-27

That may be the case (using the most recent name), but LTT the Dragon is a special case. None of the other heroes have a cycle of prohecies relating their birth and life like he does. Lews be called by his name rather than a more recent incarnation because he is specifially prophecized to be reborn at a specific time.

8

: 2005-04-27

you sort of glanced on this, so Im not sure if you were making a point about it and forgot or just stumbled on it. Ishamael seems to have a good deal of power in influencing events throughout recent history (Third Age). This influence becomes more and more apparent as critical events take place. I have heard theories saying that he is the cause of the critical events (Hawkwings armies over the seas, Trolloc Wars), but I think its the opposite. As Elder Haman says, as the Wheel weaves the Pattern closer to the requisite prophecy for the Dragon's birth, the Seals weaken. Maybe the Seals weakening are a requisite part of the Prophecies, rather than just a random simultaneous event. As the Seals weaken, Ishamael can influence events more and more. So in the period around Hawkwing and Amalasan, Ishamael gets a good deal of influence because the Seals weaken. And the seals weaken because Amalasan is so close to being the Dragon Reborn. Therefore, Ishamael has the ability to influence events. In the Trolloc Wars, I don't think we have enough evidence to really formulate a theory and back it up, but I'll assume it was similar (dangerous to assume, I know). That didn't come out clearly, so I hope you understood it.

9

Yaga Shura: 2005-04-27

"None of the other heroes have a cycle of prohecies relating their birth and life like he does."

Not precisely.

Firstly, all the heroes in general are connected to the Last Battle through the Horn being found just in time for TG.

Secondly, I think two of the Heroes are said to have their rebirths connected to the ending of an Age. Don't remember which two, however.

10

RogueSavior: 2005-04-27

Enigma, I like your point, but I don't think it applies here. All of the Heroes identify the Dragon soul as Lews Therin Telamon because, well, he's 'The Dragon.' I believe he was reborn as Guaire Amalasam, and that Hawkwing is a 'Dragon Killer' soul - whose soul purpose is to defeat accidental rebirths of the Dragon Soul.

11

JamieK: 2005-10-05

"dragon killer soul" - everyones thinking of hawkwing saying he has fought against the dragon, but he said something along the lines of, "i have fought by your side times beyond number, and against you just as many" - so he cant be a dragon killer soul. its just that both are important characters of an age but as each age is slightly different, sometimes they will fight together, some against.

if you remember, it has also been said that in ages past the dragon soul has turned to the shadow.

i think people are trying too hard to link ages past with the current age. they're not identical.

p.s the twins that identify the end of an age are shivan and someone else - most likely elaynes kids.

12

Anubis: 2005-10-05

**if you remember, it has also been said that in ages past the dragon soul has turned to the shadow.**

That was said by Ishamael and he has a very... fluid... relationship with the truth.

13

Callandor: 2005-10-06

**if you remember, it has also been said that in ages past the dragon soul has turned to the shadow.**

As Anubis said, Ishamael doesn't always tell the truth (though, yes, he does on occasion). However, in this comparison, we do have a contradictory quote by Rand saying that he has never turned, as well as Jordan's reaction to a person asking about this specific instance (along the lines of "you believed Ishamael?!!") to cast incredible doubt on the validity of Ishamael's words.

14

kaboum: 2005-10-06

JamieK:

** p.s the twins that identify the end of an age are shivan and someone else - most likely elaynes kids.**

I have seen a few post the past couple weeks about these twins. Where does this come from? I may have read it somewhere, but I can't recall it now.

thanks

15

IkilledAsmodean: 2005-10-06

The flaw I find wiht the whole "Dragon Killer Soul" idea is that Hawkwing only took out the one. We aren't given a background on who took out the other major false dragons. By that theory, shouldn't he have been reborn to deal with them? Or to deal with Logain and Taim? I don't think this idea is accurate.

16

Gaidal: 2005-10-07

Heres an interesting quote from WH, p 79, prologue Snow:

"'I thought I could build,' Lews THerin murmured in his head. ' I was wrong. We are not builders, not you, or I, ~* or the other one. *~'" Could Guaire Amalasan have been a reincarnation of LTT's soul? This would fit in nice with the theory on barrier degradation that the lives are beginning to merge together as the barrier gets more and more worn out. Feel free to prove/disprove me!

17

Callandor: 2005-10-08

**Could Guaire Amalasan have been a reincarnation of LTT's soul? This would fit in nice with the theory on barrier degradation that the lives are beginning to merge together as the barrier gets more and more worn out. Feel free to prove/disprove me!**

It's one of the ideas toubling around, but it has a few flaws:

Why isn't Rand refered to as Guaire by the Heroes of the Horn, if they refer to each other by their previous incarnations (as Jordan strongly implies)?

Furthermore, why would the Wheel spin out the Dragon soul -- to not perform the function of the Dragon soul??

Also, you have the degradation wrong then. If Guaire was the Dragon soul reborn, Rand would have his memories before Lews Therin's, not Lews Therin's before Guiare's.

Finally, I still say the "other one" is Ishamael/Moridin.

18

icspots: 2005-10-09

I like this theory. Yes like all theories it requires a certain amount of faith, but I like the tying in of Ishy's increased influence on the world, and why Artur Hawkwing had to be such a strong Ta'varen. Remember Moiraine (was it her or Loial?) explained that Ta'veren were spun out by the pattern whenever it had gone too far astray, a self-correcting mechanism. I think the world prematurely heading towards Tarmon Gaidon without the ...... necessities being met would count as something that required ta'veren intervention.

As to the multiple comments (enigma, Aiel Finn, Callandor, et al) about why the heroes of the horn referred to Rand as LTT at Falme and not as Guaire (if that is his real name!) then remember that LTT was attached to the horn also ... at least I don't think I made that up. Anyway my point being that it was Lews Therin that was attached to the horn, so regardless of who that soul is reborn as at the time the other heroes (in their own skins) would recognize one of their own. This doesn't of course include when a reborn soul of a HotH interacts with another.... use Birgette's example. When she's reborn she has no idea she's the reborn soul of a HotH, but when waiting in Tel'aran'rhiod she remembers it all and would recognize another HotH soul even if it were reborn.

** The flaw I find with the whole "Dragon Killer Soul" idea is that Hawkwing only took out the one. We aren't given a background on who took out the other major false dragons. By that theory, shouldn't he have been reborn to deal with them? Or to deal with Logain and Taim? I don't think this idea is accurate.**

First off maybe Hawkwing's soul was reborn to deal with other Dragons. I don't think so, but it has to be said. Second he doesn't have to be a Dragon-killer-soul. He could just be a Ta'veren-that's-thrown-out-to-correct-problems-in-the-pattern-soul.

**Furthermore, why would the Wheel spin out the Dragon soul -- to not perform the function of the Dragon soul??**

Why would the wheel spin out Birgette and not have her be a silver bow & arrow wielding archer? Just because it spins out the soul doesn't mean it has to be for the purpose of that soul. I don't think this either, just arguing a different point. If for instance the Dragon-soul was spun out in a non-dragon role and then the pattern needed the dragon to be born it would probably find a way to kill off the current "host" to let the dragon be born.

Apologies for no book quotes. I only have CoT with me right now. :)

19

JakOShadows: 2005-10-10

Callandor: I agree with on that third person. It just seems funny that he refers to him as the other person when he should know. But considering the fact that Rand is personally familiar with Ishmael's memories, that could be why.

And as to the HotH, maybe its based on how strong a ta'veren the person is that he used. Like Hawkwing might not be just the dragon killer, but also used when a big change is necessary. Where as someone not as strongly ta'veren would be used a catalyst for a smaller change. Then that brings up who is stronger, and if Artur Hawkwing supposedly was used more often was he weaker than the others. Probably LTT/dragon soul would be stronger than him, but would the twins who start a new age be stronger than him. It might be based on more than just number of appearances. But I think it is based on shear ta'veren-ness, not on anyones purpose. That would contradict then with the belief that Guaire Amalasan was LTT reborn, but not under the right prophecies. But it is seems like the simplest solution, which would make sense.

20

Callandor: 2005-10-10

**Why would the wheel spin out Birgette and not have her be a silver bow & arrow wielding archer?**

You're telling me she's not? That's quite a limb your standing on.

Guaire was a false Dragon. Why on earth would the Wheel spin out the Dragon soul -- if not to perform the Dragon function?

**Just because it spins out the soul doesn't mean it has to be for the purpose of that soul.**

Where's this stated?

**If for instance the Dragon-soul was spun out in a non-dragon role and then the pattern needed the dragon to be born it would probably find a way to kill off the current "host" to let the dragon be born.**

This would be faulty. The Wheel would know that the world would need the Dragon soul soon to do it's actual deed, and it would spin out the proper corrective, not just a random one.

Furthermore, a non-Dragon incarnation, means an incarnation simply where the Dragon soul wouldn't be refered to as the Dragon, the Dragon Reborn, the Dragon Fred, etc. It would be Fred the Great or whatever you want, but it would still perform the actual function of the Dragon soul (IE: the champion of the Light).

21

Jahar Narishma: 2005-10-10

I feel that this theory would work equally well, and be more parsimonious, if Amalasan was not LTT reborn, but rather one of the many False Dragons that the Pattern had spun out over the years. The rest of it could certainly be true, with Hawkwing's purpose being to counteract him. In fact, It has been stated in the encyclopedia that Ta'veren are made for a particular purpose, rather than simply being born that way as with Talents or channeling, so Hawkwing being a great Ta'veren would work in this way.

Keep in mind, though, the Hawkwing had one other very important purpose: to send armies across the Aryth ocean to become the Seanchan.

One possibility for Amalasan's reborn identity is not LTT/Rand but rather either Taim or Logain, who are equally important False Dragons who are tied to the Pattern.

22

JakOShadows: 2005-10-10

Jahar: So are you saying that Taim or Logain are heroes of the horn too. I think strong male channelers just appeared out of luck, and the pattern knew as soon as it happened it would need to be counteracted. So it spun out a HotH to fix it. I think the reason the false dragons that can channel are helping Rand now is because his being ta'veren is shaping the pattern giving him what he needs. And he does need male channelers. But they could become heroes or be minor heroes compared to them, but the actions hint at pure chance and not purpose.

23

Callandor: 2005-10-10

**Callandor: I agree with on that third person. It just seems funny that he refers to him as the other person when he should know. But considering the fact that Rand is personally familiar with Ishmael's memories, that could be why.**

Could just be attributed to at the time the third man wasn't completely visible or whatever yet.

**But I think it is based on shear ta'veren-ness, not on anyones purpose.**

Whether it is or not, it's undeniable that the Dragon soul has a specific purpose.

24

Kallaes: 2009-07-09

I agree with the idea that Guaire Amalason was an incarnation of the Dragon. It is one of the few things that make Hawkwing’s comments in “The Great Hunt” make sense. As noted higher in the thread, it also explains Lews Therin’s “other one” in a context that fits with Lews Therin’s desire to be a builder. It fits with the awareness that Lews Therin shows for the “other one”. I disagree with the idea of him being failed prophesy.

Several people asked why the Heroes would refer to Rand as Lews Therin and not Guaire Amalason if that were the case. I apologize if others have said this, but the answer is simple: name recognition. Everyone recognizes Lews Therin as the Dragon, but few people recognize Guaire Amalason. We see something similar with Birgitte when Thom is thinking how he has seen stories credited to her that he doesn’t think are true and stories of people with different names that he thinks are actually about Birgitte.

Hawkwing isn’t a simply someone that was used to correct a mistake. Lews Therin, as Guaire Amalason, was intentionally spun out because the Wheel needed a catalyst. Had Hawkwing not defeated Amalason, he never would have gotten the momentum he needed to form his empire. Subsequently, there would not be a Seanchan, no Nine Moons, no Return… Guaire Amalason wasn’t a failed prophesy, he was a driving force to make sure prophesy would actually be fulfilled. From what I can tell, that is a common way in which the Wheel uses Heroes of the Horn.