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  #1  
Old 08-15-2009, 03:27 PM
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Question Egwene's numbers

Does anyone know just how many men the SAS army has? I remmeber Bryne telling Egwene at a point that the Tower guard was being increased to fifty thousand men. And Egwene seems to think that the men need rest before the assault but nothing was said that I recall about getting more men. Was Egwne's army already larger than the WT's? Then or now? Or is it that Egwene thinks it doesn't matter because she has more AS?
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Old 08-15-2009, 03:39 PM
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I'm too lazy right now to get any sort of confirmation or specifics, but didn't Mat say in KoD that his total army size when he left them in Salidar was 2 banners? And I could be totally wrong, but I think I remember something about Vanin saying Bryne's army was almost twice as big as the Band.

If I had to throw out a guess, I'd say maybe 7-8 thousand men in Bryne's army once Mat arrived in Salidar. Of course their numbers grew later and continued growing. No idea on how many they had when they "landed" near Tar Valon.
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  #3  
Old 08-15-2009, 06:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by greatwolf
Does anyone know just how many men the SAS army has? I remmeber Bryne telling Egwene at a point that the Tower guard was being increased to fifty thousand men. And Egwene seems to think that the men need rest before the assault but nothing was said that I recall about getting more men. Was Egwne's army already larger than the WT's? Then or now? Or is it that Egwene thinks it doesn't matter because she has more AS?
Elaida ordered the Tower Guard increased to 50,000 but I don't know if that target was achieved before the Siege began. Recruiting on the inside of a Seige is difficult, so I doubt they have more than 50,000 if they have that many.

The WOTFAQ says the SAS Army was 30,000 strong when they began the seige of Tar Valon, but I"m not sure if that's increased since because the FAQ hasn't been updated since CoT.

Quote:
The Rebel Aes Sedai: Over thirty thousand soldiers as of [TPOD: 15, Stronger Than Written Law, 318], plus around 300 full Aes Sedai [ACOS: Prologue, Lightnings, 24], a fair posse of Warders, twenty-one Accepted [COT: 17, Secrets, 420], and 987 novices [COT: 16, The Subject of Negotiations, 399]. Led by one of Randland's greatest generals, Gareth Bryne, they are currently besieging Tar Valon, but initially unsuccessfully, since they could not block the harbors. After setting up fruitless negotiations as a front, Egwene executed a plan to block the harbors by turning the chain gate across each into unmovable cuendillar, during which she was betrayed and captured (see section 2.6.8). Egwene finished her chain in Northharbor; it is unknown if Leane completed transforming the chain in Southharbor or not.

The Tower Aes Sedai: Bryne tells Egwene in [TPOD: 15, Stronger Than Written Law, 318] that Elaida has ordered the Tower Guard increased to fifty thousand men, though it is unknown whether she actually accomplished that goal. It's also not clear if the Tower Guard serves as the only armed force in Tar Valon (not counting the Warders) or if the city has a separate militia. Add to that around 200 or so Aes Sedai, after losses at Dumai's Wells (27 sisters) and the Black Tower (Toveine's 50). Though the Tower is divided by internal dissent and a brewing Black Ajah purge, Elaida now (presumably) has the leader of the rebels in her possession, which could give her a distinct advantage (or might have, were the Tower not about to be attacked by the Seanchan).
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Old 08-16-2009, 08:32 AM
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Correct me if I am wrong but the notion of increasing the Tower Guard was originally Alviarin's which Elaida resisted. It was only when Alviarin was able to force her to obey that Elaida gave the order.

This would suggest that there was some considerable delay in recruiting. The rebels arrived a lot faster than anyone in the Tower though possible. I would guess Alviarin though she has all winter to get the 50,000 only for the city to fall under a seige a lot sooner than expected.
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Old 08-16-2009, 09:17 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Weird Harold
Elaida ordered the Tower Guard increased to 50,000 but I don't know if that target was achieved before the Siege began. Recruiting on the inside of a Seige is difficult, so I doubt they have more than 50,000 if they have that many.

The WOTFAQ says the SAS Army was 30,000 strong when they began the seige of Tar Valon, but I"m not sure if that's increased since because the FAQ hasn't been updated since CoT.
For the record, WH, WOTFAQ isn't the prime resource for the wot, TL is.

The quote looks good to me though. Mat's army was about 3x its former size and Egwene's seems to have had a similar increase. It doesn't mention Uno's men though. Heavy calvary may be meaningless against AS or in a seige situation, but they still ought to have a mention.

The other thing is angreal and saangreal and terangreal, which could help make up the numbers on Elaida's part. Though if it comes to that then all hope is lost for the WT and maybe the forces of light.

Last edited by greatwolf; 08-16-2009 at 09:33 AM.
  #6  
Old 08-16-2009, 09:19 AM
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On the other hand, I'm not entirely sure that Alviarin told the truth about how many troops she wanted, or later on about how many were recruited. That army is intended to be one of the main forces of the Shadow, remember.
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Old 08-16-2009, 10:37 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enigma
Correct me if I am wrong but the notion of increasing the Tower Guard was originally Alviarin's which Elaida resisted. It was only when Alviarin was able to force her to obey that Elaida gave the order.
Actually, Elaida didn't order any increase in the Tower Guard until Alviarin started blackmailing her after the disaster at Dumai's well became known, but the size of increase she ordered isn't specifiec at that point.

IIRC, Mesaana is actually the one who came up with the 50,000 target but I couldn't find that particular scene with a cursory search.
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Old 08-16-2009, 11:30 PM
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Mesaana ordered Alviarin to force Elaida to increase the Tower Guards to 50,000 in a scene found at aCoS "Prologue"
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Old 08-17-2009, 12:00 AM
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The Salidar Aes Sedai siege army could be as large as 101,250 soldiers by the end of KoD; assuming the growth rate of new solders added to the army is the same as prior estimates.

Tarna's 2,000 (LoC, in a letter to Elaida)
Vanin's 12,000 to 14,000 (LOC, Chapter 38)
20,000 soldiers (aCoS "Prologue")
30,000 soldiers (tPoD, "Stronger Than Written Word")

If one uses growth rate of 1.5 soldiers, between to aCoS to tPoD at a constant for each additional book in the series, one arrives at:

White Heart = 45,000 soldiers
CoT = 67,500 soldiers
KoD = 101,250 soldiers

So there might be around 101,250 to 151,875 soldiers in siege on both sides of the White Tower in the "Gathering Storm".

Elaida's forces likely will be outnumbered by a 2 to 3 ratio and starving in the "Gathering Storm" (assuming Mesaana got her 50,000 Tower Guards successful recruited before the invasion).
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Old 08-17-2009, 01:17 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FelixPax
Mesaana ordered Alviarin to force Elaida to increase the Tower Guards to 50,000 in a scene found at aCoS "Prologue"
Nope, the only time Mesaana mentions the Tower Guard in aCoS is in the prologue. She give the impression that Alviarin is has been trying to push Elaida according to an earlier order but she makes no demand nor mentions any number at that point.

Quote:
Originally Posted by aCoS
Prologue
Lightnings
Crystalline laughter answered her. "Such as? You? Your Black Ajah sisters? Or perhaps you think to safeguard me? You are a good girl sometimes, child." That silvery voice was amused. Alviarin felt her face heat and hoped that Mesaana read the shame, not the anger. "Do you suggest that our Elaida should be disposed of, child? Not yet, I think. She has her uses still. At least until young alíThor reaches us, and very likely after. Write out her orders and see to them. Watching her play her little games is certainly amusing. You children almost match the ajah at times. Will she succeed in having the King of Illian and the Queen of Saldaea kidnapped? You Aes Sedai used to do that, didnít you, but not for - what? - two thousand years? Who will she try to put on the throne of Cairhien? Will the offer of being king in Tear overcome the High Lord Darlinís dislike of Aes Sedai? Will our Elaida choke on her own frustration first? A pity she resists the idea of a larger army. Iíd have thought her ambitions would leap at that."
Alviarin does get Elaida to order an increase later when she blackmails her with the news from Dumai's Wells, but again, no number is mentioned.

Quote:
Originally Posted by aCoS
Chapter 32
Sealed to the Flame
Sighing, Alviarin came close again. Closer, in fact; much too near for anyone to stand to the Amyrlin, their skirts almost touching. "First, I fear you must abandon Toveine to whatever comes, for the moment at least. And also Galina and whoever else was taken prisoner, whether by the Aiel or the Ashaíman. Any attempted rescue now must mean discovery."

Elaida nodded slowly. "Yes. I can see that." She could not take her horrified eyes away from the other womanís demanding gaze. There had to be a way! This could not be happening!


"And I think it is time to reconsider your decision about the Tower Guard. Donít you really think the Guard should be increased after all?"

"I - can see my way clear to do that." Light, she had to think!

"So good," Alviarin murmured, and Elaida flushed with helpless rage. "Tomorrow, you will personally search Josaine's rooms, and Adelornaís."
There is no mention of increasing the Tower Guard other thanthe prologue and Chapter 32 and none of the reference in aCos mentions any number.
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  #11  
Old 08-17-2009, 01:36 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FelixPax
If one uses growth rate of 1.5 soldiers, between to aCoS to tPoD at a constant for each additional book in the series, one arrives at:

White Heart = 45,000 soldiers
CoT = 67,500 soldiers
KoD = 101,250 soldiers
That doesn't work because Winter's Heart and Crossroads of Time overlap almost completely in time and Knife of Dreams overlaps CoT.

Those three books run from day 685 of the story to day 765. The previous three books start at day 548 and overlap WH to day 695. 80 days vs 147 days or only about half of the recruiting time for any of the armies even if the average daily rate held steady. (there is ten days of overlap and the proportion changes depending on which books you give those ten days to.)
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Old 08-17-2009, 09:39 AM
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an army of 100K is nearly ridiculous sounding because there arnt even a million people in the whole of randland.

1 in 10 joining an AS army, even more if you dont count women and people in amador. and those mercenaries which are already apart of armys
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Old 08-17-2009, 10:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zanguini
an army of 100K is nearly ridiculous sounding because there arnt even a million people in the whole of randland.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Thus Spake the Creator
Q: We were also wondering about the size of the cities...how big is Caemlyn for instance?

A: Let's see...Well Tar Valon is 500,000 people and cities like Caemlyn and Tear are around 300,000 or so. I've envisioned a seventeenth century society and you've got to remember that for those times 300,000 would be huge. Some Asian cities of that period had populations near one million but nothing in Europe was even close.
Three cities alone total 1.1 million according to RJ. Where do you get the idea that there's less than a million in Randland?

IMHO, RJ tended to over-populate his world, but even so, there's clearly more than a million total -- at least ten million realistically and probably a hundred million or more; given the size of armies areas like the Borderlands can raise.
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Old 08-17-2009, 05:09 PM
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The size of the army wont be the only factor if a battle takes place at the WT. Considering that the SAS army was able to successfully blockade Tar valon, I'll assume for now that it is (a) large enough to do so (this suggests more than 30,000 men i think) (b) it is considerable larger than the defending army - Tower Guard. (plus whatever militia are on the island and surrounding villages.

Both sides have been adding to their numbers, I think. Since it hasn't shown up much in Egwene's povs, I'll also assume she doesn't know how many men Bryne has recruited. The WT's supply of men may have dwindled to nothing since the harbor chains were blocked. So in a way the SAS may have a good bargainiong chip in a large army (with a good chance of winning a war of attrition) in the negotiations. That is of course why they have to keep Travelling secret. Maybe at all costs.
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Old 08-17-2009, 06:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by greatwolf
The size of the army wont be the only factor if a battle takes place at the WT. Considering that the SAS army was able to successfully blockade Tar valon, I'll assume for now that it is (a) large enough to do so (this suggests more than 30,000 men i think)
Tar Valon is an island with six bridges to the mainland and two Harbors. The six bridges are fairly easy to blockade with even a small force each. Numbers are primarily needed for attacking, but the SAS aren't attacking, they're just besieging the city at the moment.

Quote:
Originally Posted by greatwolf
(b) it is considerable larger than the defending army - Tower Guard. (plus whatever militia are on the island and surrounding villages.
The limitation of only six bridges as potential lines of attack helps the defenders as much as it does the besiegers. In an open field battle it generally takes 1.5 to 1.0 times as many forces to attack as to defend. With restricted/constricted lines of attack, the normal defender's advantage is multiplied, sometimes only doubled sometimes by orders of magnitude.

Quote:
Originally Posted by greatwolf
Both sides have been adding to their numbers, I think. Since it hasn't shown up much in Egwene's povs, I'll also assume she doesn't know how many men Bryne has recruited.
Egwene knows how many men are in her army as well as knowing how many civilians and Sisters, Accepted and Novices are in her camp as well. It isn't explicity stated that she knows exact numbers of troops, but she is shown worrying over the projected availablility of necessary supplies and money to pay for them. She gets regular reports on the status of their logisitics and finances which is where commanders normally get numbers like Readiness, Manning, Recruiting and Training stats.
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Old 08-17-2009, 07:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Weird Harold
Tar Valon is an island with six bridges to the mainland and two Harbors. The six bridges are fairly easy to blockade with even a small force each. Numbers are primarily needed for attacking, but the SAS aren't attacking, they're just besieging the city at the moment.
Yeah but notice that each bridge has a little town/village there. IIRC, those towns have not been taken by the SAS. So I suspect they are beseiging them as well and that would require more men, unless of course Elaida had her men pull back from there. Taking those bridgeheads could very well be the opening moves of the war.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WH
Egwene knows how many men are in her army as well as knowing how many civilians and Sisters, Accepted and Novices are in her camp as well. It isn't explicity stated that she knows exact numbers of troops, but she is shown worrying over the projected availablility of necessary supplies and money to pay for them. She gets regular reports on the status of their logisitics and finances which is where commanders normally get numbers like Readiness, Manning, Recruiting and Training stats
Well she knows what supply requests she gets. But does that mean they represent the true position? There are all sorts of reasons for keeping information away from Egwene. And we've seen this trick before, when the WT was broken.

Last edited by greatwolf; 08-17-2009 at 07:27 PM.
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Old 08-17-2009, 07:34 PM
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Of course, the bridge to the east (Daighin?) seems to have the smallest settlement. It might be easiest for Bryne to take that first. But if he goes amphibious, then the whole city is open to him. But there isn't any mention of amphibious operations in RL armies yet. (iirc, the seanchan mentioned a landing in tPoD)
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Old 08-17-2009, 07:35 PM
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Gareth Bryne reports to Egwene as he is on her side...I guarantee Egwene knows the exact situation of her military including the number of total troops, available troops, cavalry, infantry, engineers, etc.

To suggest otherwise is ludicrous.
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Old 08-17-2009, 07:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Davian93
Gareth Bryne reports to Egwene as he is on her side...I guarantee Egwene knows the exact situation of her military including the number of total troops, available troops, cavalry, infantry, engineers, etc.

To suggest otherwise is ludicrous.
Which are you referring? That Egwene keeps secrets from her "trusted" general or vice versa?
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Old 08-17-2009, 07:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by greatwolf
Which are you referring? That Egwene keeps secrets from her "trusted" general or vice versa?
That Bryne would keep something like the size of her army away from her...The Hall, yes, Bryne, no.
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