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  #61  
Old 11-13-2016, 09:25 AM
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Originally Posted by GonzoTheGreat View Post
Somebody thought that Hillary was cool?
No one thought this. The word that both you and Dahlia are looking for is charisma. Hillary definitely didn't have this. People (myself included) mostly voted for her due to a combination of not wanting change (but not having the option of just being allowed to vote for Obama for a third term), thinking that she was the most qualified (these are probably all voters who are old enough to have fond memories of the Bill Clinton years, something which the millennials, the Bernie crowd, are too young to recall - the only other equally qualified candidate was Bill Weld), and thinking that while Bernie was more charismatic than Hillary, that he is also batshit crazy and irresponsible. He just seemed like a crappy imitation brand of Elizabeth Warren.

Hillary's problem is that even her own supporters didn't really like her. It's a bad sign when Bill Weld, the libertarian vp candidate, doesn't just feel like the best of all the candidates (both from the general and the primaries), but the best by a nearly exponential proportion. Which is probably why Michelle Obama now seems potentially appealing for the next cycle. She is intelligent (like Hillary, Bill Clinton, and Barack), charismatic (like Bill and Barack), and can deliver a compelling speech (again like Bill and Barack). The other dem that can easily fulfill those criteria is Elizabeth Warren, but Elizabeth Warren is going to be 71 in 2020. This would be less of an issue if she would have been 71 when running for election, but for a first term? That is just too old (the same unfortunately was true of Hillary, of Bernie, and of Trump). Michelle Obama will be 56 in 2020. Though admittedly, a lot of the appeal of Michelle is obviously that we're still pissed that we can't just have a third term of Barack.

Last edited by Kimon; 11-13-2016 at 09:31 AM.
  #62  
Old 11-13-2016, 09:56 AM
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Of course, without that Amendment you might've been facing Dubya's fifth term now. So it isn't all bad.
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  #63  
Old 11-13-2016, 10:13 AM
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Originally Posted by GonzoTheGreat View Post
Somebody thought that Hillary was cool?


I think that is more based on name recognition together with lack of imagination. Which then results in a nomocracy, if I remember correctly. Which I don't; that's actually a system based on the rule of law. So my next attempt is onomacracy, which at least has the advantage that no one else ever has thought of it.
Damn it Gonzo now you have me wondering what an enemacracy would be.
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  #64  
Old 11-13-2016, 11:49 AM
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Originally Posted by GonzoTheGreat View Post
Of course, without that Amendment you might've been facing Dubya's fifth term now. So it isn't all bad.
Yeah, considering how unpopular he was at the end of his second term, the disaster that his wars had become, and the mess that the economy was, there was no chance of him even getting a third term. The Republicans passed the 22nd Amendment out of a fear of Truman becoming like FDR, but Truman was unpopular by the end of his second term as well. Eisenhower almost certainly could have been able to, but aside from him the list is pretty small. Reagan was in advanced senility by the end of his second, so zero chance there. Clinton maybe, Obama definitely.
  #65  
Old 11-13-2016, 01:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Nazbaque View Post
Damn it Gonzo now you have me wondering what an enemacracy would be.
To be honest it wouldn't be all that different?

The people would still get shit shoved up where the sun don't shine by those in power.

You might be cleaner afterwards in an enemacracy though.
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  #66  
Old 11-13-2016, 05:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Kimon View Post
Yeah, considering how unpopular he was at the end of his second term, the disaster that his wars had become, and the mess that the economy was, there was no chance of him even getting a third term. The Republicans passed the 22nd Amendment out of a fear of Truman becoming like FDR, but Truman was unpopular by the end of his second term as well. Eisenhower almost certainly could have been able to, but aside from him the list is pretty small. Reagan was in advanced senility by the end of his second, so zero chance there. Clinton maybe, Obama definitely.
Only problem for Obama, is that both the House and Senate went to the GOP. He was already getting blocked before (hence the gutted version of Obamacare we have now), but now, he'd be lucky to be allowed to go to the bathroom, let alone pass anything.

And I wonder what the Trumpers are going to do now, since Trump has brought on a bunch of establishment GOP and all of a sudden, isn't leaning on tearing up Obamacare ASAP.
  #67  
Old 11-13-2016, 05:58 PM
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Only problem for Obama, is that both the House and Senate went to the GOP. He was already getting blocked before (hence the gutted version of Obamacare we have now), but now, he'd be lucky to be allowed to go to the bathroom, let alone pass anything.

And I wonder what the Trumpers are going to do now, since Trump has brought on a bunch of establishment GOP and all of a sudden, isn't leaning on tearing up Obamacare ASAP.
I think that Obama would have made enough of a difference to give the dems control, very narrowly, of the senate. Right now it is 51 Republicans and 48 Dems (Louisiana is having a run-off, so it will be 52 republicans eventually). Hassan actually ended up beating Ayotte in New Hampshire, by a similar narrow margin to how Hillary just barely held New Hampshire. The difference was Pat Toomey holding on, unexpectedly, in Pennsylvania, and Ron Johnson, also unexpectedly, hold on in Wisconsin. Those were two states that Obama won both times, two states the Hillary was expected to win, but lost. Most people don't split their tickets. If Obama is on the top of the ticket is is reasonable to suggest that he carries both of those states, and that both of those Republican incumbents fall. That would have made it 50-50, with Joe Biden as the tie-breaking vote. And, if it had been Obama, maybe he holds North Carolina and Missouri, and we knock off Burr and Blunt as well.

Perhaps this will at least finally make people realize the repercussions of voting third party.
  #68  
Old 11-13-2016, 06:16 PM
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Originally Posted by DahLliA View Post
To be honest it wouldn't be all that different?

The people would still get shit shoved up where the sun don't shine by those in power.

You might be cleaner afterwards in an enemacracy though.
Wouldn't it be the ones in power who take it up the arse? The ruler is the one with the greatest ass. In a way. Oh the benefits of being the power behind that throne. Or would the throne be a toilet?
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  #69  
Old 11-13-2016, 11:04 PM
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My opinion on all this: yes, Bernie probably could have won. Hypothetical match-ups had Bernie beating every Republican by better margins than Hillary, especially Trump. All the arguments about how that would have changed in the general were pretty much unfounded and illogical.

As I made clear on this forum at the time of the first Democratic primary debate, Bernie was far from my first choice. He was a terrible candidate...but, so was Trump. Both had the populist appeal that the country was hungry for this year, and Bernie had the advantage of ethics and humane policy positions.

Bernie absolutely trounced Hillary when it came to the youth vote in the primaries; he got an average of around 70-80% in the 18-30 demographic, if I recall. It's no surprise that Hillary suffered from low youth turnout. And turnout is everything in an election like this.

Bernie might not have been the best president, but he would have been far preferable to Trump. Any attempt to equate the two is intellectually dishonest.

That said, I would have preferred a better slate of candidates in the first place. Elizabeth Warren was my first choice, and indeed I ended up voting for her anyway, since I live in one of the least likely states to decide a presidential election.

Hillary should never have run; her weakness as a candidate was the most obvious thing in the world. But, the Ready For Hillary dunces decided they wanted to lose the election this year. And yes, the DNC is absolutely culpable, as are the media elites. They engineered the primary in Hillary's favor with every tool at their disposal; if Warren had run against her, she would have been ostracized in the party as a traitor. So, here we are. President Trump, god help us.
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  #70  
Old 11-14-2016, 01:14 AM
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Originally Posted by DahLliA View Post
Think that the fact that Sanders wasn't in the Cool Dem Club had more to do with it.
That's a good way of putting it. But, Elizabeth Warren is like a better Bernie in pretty much every way, and she's in the cool club. That's the only reason she didn't run, and she held out as the only woman among Senate Democrats to refrain from endorsing Hillary until it was obvious that Bernie no longer had a chance. I really admire her for taking it that far, because there really was no other option for her. She's a politician; she has to play politics. Hopefully all her colleagues now realize their mistake (though that's probably too much to hope for).

The bright side to Hillary losing is that Warren can run in 2020, because 2024 would probably be too late for her.

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Hell, I see that apparently a lot of Americans want Michelle Obama to run in 2020. Are you trying to become a monarchy? Because putting the same family in power over and over again is how you get a monarchy (or whatever it's called when one family runs a country instead of one specific king/queen).
I have only seen one person suggest this on Facebook, and it was Luckers. He's Australian. My reaction: "No." I told him it's tiresome when people look for future presidential candidates among the families of former presidents. Just stop it.
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  #71  
Old 11-14-2016, 01:32 AM
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Rosalynn Carter 2020.
  #72  
Old 11-14-2016, 04:15 AM
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Originally Posted by Kimon View Post
Perhaps this will at least finally make people realize the repercussions of voting third party.
This is probably the most delusional comment in this thread. The vast majority of Johnson voters were disaffected Republicans. If there had only been two choices on the ballot, Hillary would have lost even worse than she did.
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  #73  
Old 11-14-2016, 08:02 AM
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Originally Posted by Terez View Post
This is probably the most delusional comment in this thread. The vast majority of Johnson voters were disaffected Republicans. If there had only been two choices on the ballot, Hillary would have lost even worse than she did.
It is not delusional to think that Johnson was pulling more from Hillary than from Trump. He thought he was pulling evenly, but there is a reason why Weld was on MSNBC the weekend before the election begging people to vote for Hillary. You may not want to admit it, but his vote totals in Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania were all well beyond the margin between Hillary and Trump.

If you can point to exit polling data that definitively points otherwise, then link it, but to assert that his and Stein's support was not largely disaffected college students and liberals is counter-intuitive - i.e. disaffected Bernie supporters. Indeed this may explain the polling errors made by people like Nate Silver, they were providing the result in a two-way race, not accurately enough accounting for the damage that Johnson and Stein would do. This was Nader all over again, only on a larger scale.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/10/politi...stein-spoiler/

This is the best that I can find on his demographics, at least quickly (before I need to head to work), but it is a few months old, not from the actual election results.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/05/us...ird-party.html

Edit: Noticed that I had accidentally inverted that first sentence.

Last edited by Kimon; 11-14-2016 at 08:50 AM.
  #74  
Old 11-14-2016, 09:56 AM
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It is not delusional to think that Johnson was pulling more from Hillary than from Trump.
Yes, it is. Johnson is a libertarian; his politics are largely polar opposite to Hillary. I don't know a single liberal who voted for Johnson; it's all Republicans who were looking for an alternative.

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Originally Posted by Kimon View Post
If you can point to exit polling data that definitively points otherwise, then link it, but to assert that his and Stein's support was not largely disaffected college students and liberals is counter-intuitive - i.e. disaffected Bernie supporters.
Bernie was attractive to some social libertarians who were never, ever going to vote for Hillary. You act as though these people voted for Johnson because they thought Hillary was going to win anyway, but the reality is that most Johnson voters didn't want Hillary to win and made a conscious choice to vote against her, even in swing states. Hillary lost because she was the wrong person for the Dems to run against Trump. Perhaps the worst person in the field of viable candidates to run against Trump.

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Originally Posted by Kimon View Post
Indeed this may explain the polling errors made by people like Nate Silver, they were providing the result in a two-way race, not accurately enough accounting for the damage that Johnson and Stein would do. This was Nader all over again, only on a larger scale.
No, 538 did a pretty good job accounting for third-party voters. What they didn't manage to account for was Hillary's turnout problem. That's partly a problem with the pollsters' methodology.

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Edit: Noticed that I had accidentally inverted that first sentence.
You should have left it like it was; it was more correct, despite not supporting your delusion.
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  #75  
Old 11-14-2016, 09:59 AM
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Hey Guys,

You know Im not all that good on american Politics but can I ask about Sanders for a minute?

He LOST the democratic vote. (the Primaries?) So why do people think he would have done better when he had already lost out to Hillary in his own party?
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  #76  
Old 11-14-2016, 10:07 AM
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Look guys this result had a lot of factors contributing to it. Blaming it all on third party voting is delusional and so is insisting that it wasn't a factor. The media was a much bigger culprit in my opinion, but what exactly did they have to work with? How many people have the right to vote in the US? How many exercised it? How many people thought: "Why bother? We are fucked anyway." How many thought: "Hillary wins anyway, but I don't want to vote for her. Not like she loses without my vote," and then voted third party or didn't vote at all.

You have long been in a situation best described as republicans vs. the rest. At least half of democrat support is based on hating republicans and so when you've had a non-repuplican in power for eight years and their candidate is a joke there just isn't enough fear or anger to drive people to vote for a democrat. That's the lesser of two evils upside down. People want a third option and they don't think the greater evil is likely to happen, so they don't get involved. Supporting the lesser evil makes you feel dirty no matter how necessary it was, so when it doesn't seem necessary you just want your hands clean. Of course they won't be but admitting that is just depressing.
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  #77  
Old 11-14-2016, 10:29 AM
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Originally Posted by Daekyras View Post
Hey Guys,

You know Im not all that good on american Politics but can I ask about Sanders for a minute?

He LOST the democratic vote. (the Primaries?) So why do people think he would have done better when he had already lost out to Hillary in his own party?
Because the hardcore base of the Democratic Party are the only people who like Hillary, and many in the middle of the party were badgered into voting for Hillary based on spurious "electability" arguments. (These arguments were pushed by media outlets that were actually colluding with Hillary behind the scenes, as evidenced by several leaks; over and over, actual voters being interviewed said they liked Bernie but voted for Hillary because they thought she could win.) The progressive wing of the party was vehemently against Hillary, to a level that's hard to imagine with any other viable candidate.

Bernie had appeal to independent voters that Hillary never had. This was evidenced over and over throughout the primary season. I know several long-time conservative/Republican voters who supported Bernie in the primary. I believe ST was one of them.

Hillary's popularity with base Democrats did not help her in the general because those are the most dependable voters. Her unpopularity with everyone else hurt her quite a bit; people either voted against her or didn't vote at all because they were uninspired.

Trump's unpopularity with base Republican voters didn't hurt him because those people were going to vote Republican no matter what, with very few exceptions. His popularity with people who don't normally vote was his biggest strength. Bernie had a similar populist appeal.

It was clear early in the primary season that this was going to be a populist election season. That made it all the more dangerous for the Democrats to run Hillary. She was never going to be a good candidate, but she was the worst person to run against Trump.

See the articles I linked earlier; Bernie's favorability numbers were higher than that of any other candidate, much more favorable than either Hillary or Trump, and he consistently performed better than Hillary in hypothetical general election match-ups against every potential Republican candidate, but especially Trump.
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  #78  
Old 11-14-2016, 10:33 AM
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Originally Posted by Nazbaque View Post
How many thought: "Hillary wins anyway, but I don't want to vote for her. Not like she loses without my vote," and then voted third party or didn't vote at all.
There was a progressive third-party candidate and a conservative third-party candidate. The progressive (Jill Stein) did not show very well; it was Johnson, the conservative, who had the substantial showing. It's absolutely illogical to argue that he took more votes away from Hillary than he took from Trump.
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  #79  
Old 11-14-2016, 10:49 AM
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There was a progressive third-party candidate and a conservative third-party candidate. The progressive (Jill Stein) did not show very well; it was Johnson, the conservative, who had the substantial showing. It's absolutely illogical to argue that he took more votes away from Hillary than he took from Trump.
But how many would have voted that didn't if the candidates had been different? How many votes were lost from the election completely?
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  #80  
Old 11-14-2016, 10:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nazbaque View Post
But how many would have voted that didn't if the candidates had been different?
Not sure exactly what you are asking here. Obviously people wanted alternatives to both major candidates, but it's pretty clear that Hillary would have lost even worse if there had only been two choices on the ballot.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nazbaque View Post
How many votes were lost from the election completely?
It's hard to say. Youth turnout was low compared to the last two presidential elections; as I noted before, that's not unrelated to Hillary's poor performance with the 18-30 demographic in the primary. Trump boosted turnout in rural counties, which went for Bernie in the primary almost without exception.
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