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  #781  
Old 02-04-2017, 11:14 PM
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Missed this. 4 years is eons. 2 weeks has been long enough. One thing that I truly don't get is this attack against Iran. Does he really think Russia will be all, "party in Iran! Last one there, buys the beer!" If Putin can convince Trump to go to war with Iran, he'll sit there and watch the US bleed. Bonus points if he can get them to leave the UN & NATO before hand.
All of his advisors, even the sane ones (well sane one - Mattis), hate Iran, and hate the deal we made with them. You need to keep in mind who has his ear - Bannon (hates Muslims), Kushner (Jewish lobby), Netanyahu, and Flynn (Putin's man in DC). All of them hate Iran. Moreover, he has been talking recently with the Saudis and King Abdullah of Jordan (who coincidentally also at least seemed to sort of convince him about the need to at least sort of rein in that pos Netanyahu). The Sunnis hate Iran, and we're stupid enough to do their dirty work for them. That's also why we've been helping the Saudis against the Houthi in Yemen.
  #782  
Old 02-04-2017, 11:31 PM
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All of his advisors, even the sane ones (well sane one - Mattis), hate Iran, and hate the deal we made with them. You need to keep in mind who has his ear - Bannon (hates Muslims), Kushner (Jewish lobby), Netanyahu, and Flynn (Putin's man in DC). All of them hate Iran. Moreover, he has been talking recently with the Saudis and King Abdullah of Jordan (who coincidentally also at least seemed to sort of convince him about the need to at least sort of rein in that pos Netanyahu). The Sunnis hate Iran, and we're stupid enough to do their dirty work for them. That's also why we've been helping the Saudis against the Houthi in Yemen.
and yet, for all the hate, it would bleed the US dry. It would make Vietnam look like a protest rally. Russia isn't going to help on this one.
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  #783  
Old 02-05-2017, 03:59 AM
GonzoTheGreat GonzoTheGreat is offline
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The Saudis can't be thinking that they would be uninvolved if a new Vietnam war was started in Iran, can they?
They'd be like Cambodia, with killing fields being their end game if they're lucky.

Frankly, I think that the Iranians would be better off if they actually did get nukes, but their religious scruples prohibit that. I think that if Trump does invade Iran, then eventually the Americans will be driven out (as they were driven out of Vietnam and Iraq, and are being driven out of Afghanistan right now) and a few years later at most Iran will have nukes. Whereupon there will be a nuclear armed state engaging openly in global terrorism against American interests. Then what?
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  #784  
Old 02-05-2017, 07:51 AM
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The Saudis can't be thinking that they would be uninvolved if a new Vietnam war was started in Iran, can they?
They'd be like Cambodia, with killing fields being their end game if they're lucky.

Frankly, I think that the Iranians would be better off if they actually did get nukes, but their religious scruples prohibit that. I think that if Trump does invade Iran, then eventually the Americans will be driven out (as they were driven out of Vietnam and Iraq, and are being driven out of Afghanistan right now) and a few years later at most Iran will have nukes. Whereupon there will be a nuclear armed state engaging openly in global terrorism against American interests. Then what?
A group of hero-types will find evidence that Putin is behind it all, infiltrate his secret Siberian base and confront him. It won't go well, but eventually they'll corner him and reveal his plan. They'll swear they'll stop him and he'll be all "stop me? I did it an hour ago."

And then he'll reveal the "Iranian" attack against Washington and how he intervened, but alas, too late. The US will be crippled and Russia will be the world's new leader of the free world...for whatever Putin's definition of free world is.
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  #785  
Old 02-05-2017, 10:43 AM
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Frankly, I think that the Iranians would be better off if they actually did get nukes, but their religious scruples prohibit that. I think that if Trump does invade Iran, then eventually the Americans will be driven out (as they were driven out of Vietnam and Iraq, and are being driven out of Afghanistan right now) and a few years later at most Iran will have nukes. Whereupon there will be a nuclear armed state engaging openly in global terrorism against American interests. Then what?
I think many in Iran see nuclear weapons as the only surefire defense against Israeli-American-Saudi aggression. Thus as self-defense. Certainly having the bomb does make it far more difficult for state-based actors to be willing to attack each other directly. It's the only reason we haven't had WWIII (and probably IV) between us and the Soviets/Russia. Only reason there hasn't been a major war between India and Pakistan. It's also what makes dealing with North Korea so difficult - fear that he would nuke Seoul or various cities in Japan.

But keep in mind, if Iran gets the bomb, the Saudis will insist on having it also. This is a problem of proliferation. Best way to avoid that is through diplomacy. Convince the Iranians that we have no interest in attacking them, or involving ourselves in the Sunni-Shia conflict. Moreover, convincing the whole region that we have lost patience with the Israelis, and that if they (Israel) don't immediately withdraw from the West Bank (i.e. disband all their illegal settlements), completely free Gaza, and cede Jerusalem to the UN, that we will stay neutral if they (the Arabs) decide to try to take on the Israelis again in another grand Arab coalition.

I want us completely out of the region.
  #786  
Old 02-05-2017, 11:48 AM
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Israel does have nukes; the USA gave it* to them. So attacking Israel isn't safe for state actors any more. What would happen if a couple of Palestinians get their hands on any Israeli nukes is everyone's guess. I guess we'll find out, eventually, though I would prefer to be wrong about this.

* Not the right word, I admit. Still, it beats "the USA, they gave them to them" when it comes to clarity, even if this alternatively is technically correcter. Perhaps I can blame Netanyahu for using fake grammar.
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  #787  
Old 02-05-2017, 12:53 PM
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Israel does have nukes; the USA gave it* to them. So attacking Israel isn't safe for state actors any more. What would happen if a couple of Palestinians get their hands on any Israeli nukes is everyone's guess. I guess we'll find out, eventually, though I would prefer to be wrong about this.
We all know that Gonzo, that's why I only mentioned the Saudis with regards to concerns over collateral proliferation.

People attack Israel mostly through proxies, like Hamas and Hezbollah. There can't be any legitimate concern of anyone actually conducting a nuclear attack on Israel however for a far more simple reason - such an attack (even on Tel Aviv - about as far in Israel as one can get from the West Bank - about 30 miles) would almost certainly mean widespread deaths of Palestinians, and depending on the wind, perhaps also in Lebanon. An attack on Jerusalem would likely kill far more Palestianians than Jews. Israel has the bomb to safeguard against states directly hitting them again. But legitimate fear of being hit by one themselves? The larger issue for them is what exactly is their endgame if not a two-state solution? If they want to keep their state Jewish, they need to excise the West Bank from Israel or risk a majority Muslim Israel.At some point they need to accept that reality and tell all those settlers that they have but two choices - become Palestinian citizens, or abandon the West Bank.
  #788  
Old 02-05-2017, 01:25 PM
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At least one Israeli government minister has talked openly about a Holocaust. If they kill all the Palestinians, then having them become a majority isn't really an issue any more. Apart from that, though, there is no viable Israeli end game.
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  #789  
Old 02-07-2017, 05:14 PM
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DeVos was confirmed for Education - barely.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38897507

They needed the votes both of Sessions (the soon to be Klansman AG) and the VP, Pence, to break the 50-50 tie. It is quite disappointing that only Collins and Murkowski had the courage and decency to take a stand against her, as this woman made quite clear that she was not only unqualified, but also could not be bothered to take the job seriously.
  #790  
Old 02-07-2017, 09:36 PM
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Damn how I wish we had gotten a President Cruz.

Watching Cruz debate Sanders should be a wakeup call for those on the Left to stop rioting (literally), educate themselves, and put someone forward that is not as batshit insane as Sanders truly is. Warren and Ellison don't count.
  #791  
Old 02-08-2017, 03:10 PM
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I don't feel comfortable calling Jackson a military hero. The Battle of New Orleans might have nixed a very favorable peace treaty to a war wherein we essentially got our a*s kicked, and his conquest of Florida was illegal.
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I would argue the opposite effect of the Battle of New Orleans...do you really think the UK would have given back New Orleans and the mouth of the Mississippi if they had crushed the only US force in the area?

Also, regardless of how you view the battle's political consequences, his execution of the defense was perfectly done.
I'd like to point out that the treaty that ended the War of 1812 - the Treaty of Ghent - was signed less than a month before the 10-day battle took place. I will grant that the treaty wasn't ratified by Congress for 2 months, no one in the Louisiana theatre of the war knew of the treaty's existence. Electricity or even the telegraph wasn't invented, so I'm not keen as to how long it would have taken for news of the battle to reach Congress to have any effect for treaty ratification.
  #792  
Old 02-08-2017, 09:24 PM
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Sessions was confirmed today by a vote of 52-47. This will likely be the same vote (after the filibuster is killed) that confirms Gorsuch as the next supreme court justice. That number is somewhat interesting though, as it both makes clear that we can't count on Collins (the last of that endangered breed, the New England Republican) to consistently do the right thing, but it also means that we might as well just go ahead and change that D next to Manchin's name to an R.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38915273
  #793  
Old 02-09-2017, 04:02 AM
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Electricity or even the telegraph wasn't invented, so I'm not keen as to how long it would have taken for news of the battle to reach Congress to have any effect for treaty ratification.
Luigi Galvani had done his experiments on frogs legs in 1780, 32 years before this battle. So ignorance is not an excuse for these warmongers.
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  #794  
Old 02-09-2017, 08:14 AM
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I'd like to point out that the treaty that ended the War of 1812 - the Treaty of Ghent - was signed less than a month before the 10-day battle took place. I will grant that the treaty wasn't ratified by Congress for 2 months, no one in the Louisiana theatre of the war knew of the treaty's existence. Electricity or even the telegraph wasn't invented, so I'm not keen as to how long it would have taken for news of the battle to reach Congress to have any effect for treaty ratification.
I agree. At the time of the battle, Jackson thought he was fighting for the survival of our entire western territories. Who controls New Orleans, controls the Louisiana territory. And honestly, given previous British actions in that arena, had they captured the city/region, they would not have given it up easily.
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  #795  
Old 02-09-2017, 08:16 AM
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Sessions was confirmed today by a vote of 52-47. This will likely be the same vote (after the filibuster is killed) that confirms Gorsuch as the next supreme court justice. That number is somewhat interesting though, as it both makes clear that we can't count on Collins (the last of that endangered breed, the New England Republican) to consistently do the right thing, but it also means that we might as well just go ahead and change that D next to Manchin's name to an R.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38915273
Manchin is once again another "Blue Dog Democrat" who never follows the party line because he's a giant pussy afraid of fighting for Dem values over his ignorant red state base.

Biggest issue people have with the Dems is their utter lack of spines when it comes to that sort of thing.
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  #796  
Old 02-09-2017, 08:18 AM
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That's what Sanders stood for: a Democrat with a spine. As could be expected, he lost to Clinton, who then lost to a spiny (albeit possibly spineless) Trump.
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Old 02-09-2017, 08:30 AM
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That's what Sanders stood for: a Democrat with a spine. As could be expected, he lost to Clinton, who then lost to a spiny (albeit possibly spineless) Trump.
Yeah...but it was Hillary's turn or something.

Oh and she had those emails so yeah...
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  #798  
Old 02-09-2017, 07:00 PM
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https://www.scribd.com/document/3389...ngton-v-Trump#


This is unbelievably disturbing. The Ninth Circuit proves once again that it doesn't give a damn about the law. This was another pure policy decision, and likely a decision to prevent more businesses from being torched by lawless barbarians, and should not stand. Bad policy does NOT equal bad law, and even though I believe the EO was rushed out, it is legal and the stay should have been issued. This is a good example of why the Ninth Circuit is the most struck down Circuit in America. Here's to hoping Congress decides to finally cut the Ninth Circuit in two, like it's considering.
  #799  
Old 02-09-2017, 07:14 PM
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https://www.scribd.com/document/3389...ngton-v-Trump#


This is unbelievably disturbing. The Ninth Circuit proves once again that it doesn't give a damn about the law. This was another pure policy decision, and likely a decision to prevent more businesses from being torched by lawless barbarians, and should not stand. Bad policy does NOT equal bad law, and even though I believe the EO was rushed out, it is legal and the stay should have been issued. This is a good example of why the Ninth Circuit is the most struck down Circuit in America. Here's to hoping Congress decides to finally cut the Ninth Circuit in two, like it's considering.
That is far too harsh. The blame here isn't with the circuit Southpaw, it is with the shoddy work writing and defending their executive order. The problem here is that this was a rushed job, and rushed by amateurs. Why not at least wait until he had his own justice department team in place? When he had his own AG, and own solicitor? Don't blame the court. Blame Bannon and Trump.
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Old 02-09-2017, 07:26 PM
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That is far too harsh. The blame here isn't with the circuit Southpaw, it is with the shoddy work writing and defending their executive order. The problem here is that this was a rushed job, and rushed by amateurs. Why not at least wait until he had his own justice department team in place? When he had his own AG, and own solicitor? Don't blame the court. Blame Bannon and Trump.

There were problems with implementation, but it was constitutionally, statutorily, and historically sound. This isn't the first time that the Ninth Circuit placed policy above law, and it won't be the last. It's time destroy the Ninth Circuit, as it stands, and create a Twelfth Circuit. The decision is absolutely awful in all areas.
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