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  #81  
Old 11-14-2016, 11:08 AM
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Originally Posted by Terez View Post
There was a progressive third-party candidate and a conservative third-party candidate. The progressive (Jill Stein) did not show very well; it was Johnson, the conservative, who had the substantial showing. It's absolutely illogical to argue that he took more votes away from Hillary than he took from Trump.
What little evidence we have at present, eventually there may be better actual demographic breakdowns of his vote in the actual election, suggests otherwise. His support was mostly amongst millenials. The same group that supported Nader, the same group that tends to overwhelmingly vote either democrat, or not vote. Perhaps most of these wouldn't have voted at all, but this crowd looks like Bernie supporters, not Republicans. Most of them either seem to have eventually voted for Trump, or, in very small numbers, for McMullin. And Johnson's positions were not conservative, they were libertarian. Sure he was pro-trade, but how many actually knew that? And the single most obvious position he had was pro-pot, and decriminalizing drugs. He is also anti-war.

I'm not sure why more of the Bernie vote didn't end up with Stein, but it certainly seemed to go to Johnson instead. Your premise would seem to require that not only was Hillary destined to lose this election, but that so too would have Obama. After all, her stances and Obama's were identical. Trump got all of the vote that he was expected to get. The candidate that had a noticeably missing percentage, essentially underperforming (not merely under drawing - turn out was also a major problem) what Obama had done was Hillary. It was not Trump that underperformed Romney's old numbers. That suggests that Johnson, whose 4% was absent last cycle was drawing from the left more than the right. The other major differences, Hillary did a little better amonst college educated white voters, and worse amongst non-college educated than typical. But those balanced each other. The difference seems to be Johnson and turnout.

The turnout was her fault, because she was a bad and uninspiring candidate. The Johnson issue is also her fault, and for the same issue, but the question remains, why do these Bernie voters have a problem with Hillary? Do they really have a problem with Obama? Because if not with him, why with her? She isn't as exciting a speaker as Obama, not as charismatic. But their politics are identical. She would appoint the same types of justices, carry out the same policies. So is it just that they really believe that nonsense about Bernie being cheated? Because that what it seems like. And Bernie was not cheated. He just got fewer votes. That's it. He lost because most dems thought that he was even worse than Hillary.

Look people certainly have the right to vote third party, I just think they should be honest about why they are doing it, because there are only two logical reasons. Either they don't care who will win between the two viable options, or they want to punish one of the two out of protest, and thus help the other win. So, which is it? Did you really not care if Trump wins, or are you happy he won, because this sticks it to the dems for not overturning the vote and handing the nomination to Bernie simply because you and his supporters thought that he had the better chance of beating Trump in the general. Bernie wasn't cheated. But Hillary would have been cheated had that scenario played out.

And let's keep in mind why so many dems thought that Hillary had earned a clear field. She won the popular vote over Obama during the primaries in '08, but was a good soldier, conceded, and helped him win, then helped him govern. That's why.

Last edited by Kimon; 11-14-2016 at 11:13 AM.
  #82  
Old 11-14-2016, 11:30 AM
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And let's keep in mind why so many dems thought that Hillary had earned a clear field. She won the popular vote over Obama during the primaries in '08, but was a good soldier, conceded, and helped him win, then helped him govern. That's why.
And she got her reward: Donald Trump as president.

It may have been irrational, but oodles of voters really disliked her. This election was an unpopularity contest, and Trump turned out to be the less unpopular. He lost, so now he has to go to the White House; he may even have to spend an occasional night there.

The policies of Obama and Clinton may be the same, but Obama could sell them and Clinton could not.
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  #83  
Old 11-14-2016, 01:01 PM
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The policies of Obama and Clinton may be the same, but Obama could sell them and Clinton could not.
This is actually a pretty common problem for the democrats in comparison to the republicans. Dems tend to be lawyers and academics (or a mix of the two, like Obama), while republicans tend to be sleezy businessmen, i.e. conmen. Does tend to mean that the republicans produce better salesmen. I personally liked Obama's oratory, but even he had difficulty selling his vision, and convincing the American people of the benefits of the ACA. He certainly wasn't as natural at this side of politics say as Bill Clinton. Hillary is really bright, and was quite a successful lawyer, but she is not particulary gifted at oratory. Certainly not as gifted as her husband, of as her former boss (Barack), or as Elizabeth Warren.

I just find it aggravating that the Bernie crowd still wants to assert that she was the lesser of two evils, which is bs. She may have been boring, but she was not evil. Not even a lesser evil. And now, instead, we have a president who makes a normal republican look like a lesser evil by contrast to the nightmare that is Trump.
  #84  
Old 11-14-2016, 03:08 PM
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I just find it aggravating that the Bernie crowd still wants to assert that she was the lesser of two evils, which is bs. She may have been boring, but she was not evil. Not even a lesser evil. And now, instead, we have a president who makes a normal republican look like a lesser evil by contrast to the nightmare that is Trump.
Well people don't usually think of it as literally evil when they use the phrase. Helps them sleep at night when they vote for the lesser evil. They still use the word when they quote the phrase, because substituting with "boring", "ugly", "unpleasant", "scary" or other descriptions that more accurately fit their sentiments makes them look bad. The voters that is not the candidates.
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  #85  
Old 11-14-2016, 09:38 PM
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What little evidence we have at present, eventually there may be better actual demographic breakdowns of his vote in the actual election, suggests otherwise. His support was mostly amongst millenials.
Yeah, so? That doesn't make them any more likely to have voted for Hillary over Trump. We tried to tell you this back when you were trying to shove your unelectable candidate down our throats, but of course you didn't listen, and now you'll do anything to shift the blame elsewhere. Just accept it: people who voted for Johnson did so, for the most part, knowing full well that it could lead to Hillary losing. That was the point.
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  #86  
Old 11-14-2016, 10:09 PM
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Just accept it: people who voted for Johnson did so, for the most part, knowing full well that it could lead to Hillary losing. That was the point.
Which is exactly what I said. Which begs the question, why then are you trying to suggest that my premise is delusional? Johnson helped cause Trump's victory. Yes, Hillary being a weak candidate helped open that door, but that same issue was at play in 2000 with Gore and Nader. With Nader it was one state. But it was enough. With Johnson, it was many states, and again, more than enough to have detrimentally determined the outcome.

I was long concerned with the Bernie Bros for good reason. Perhaps they, and you, think that the cause, of punishing the dems, perhaps even hoping to push them in the future permanently further to the left, was worthwhile enough to sacrifice not just the chance at holding the presidency, but also to surrender the Supreme Court for at least a generation. That is a very heavy price out of hope for a minor victory down the road.
  #87  
Old 11-14-2016, 10:15 PM
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Which is exactly what I said.
No, you implied that people voted third party because they were too stupid to realize that it could lead to Hillary's loss.
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  #88  
Old 11-14-2016, 10:40 PM
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No, you implied that people voted third party because they were too stupid to realize that it could lead to Hillary's loss.
No, I agree that many of them knew that they were sabotaging the election. But I think it unlikely that all, or even most, of those Johnson voters really hoped that Trump would win. Whether they were stupid, and simply didn't think what they did would matter (and certainly it did not for all of them, only for some, and in certain states), or whether they think that Hillary got what she deserved, and that the dems deserved to lose because in their opinion Bernie was robbed somehow, are however important distinctions. If the latter, then those voters apparently actually preferred Trump to Hillary, and preferred that outcome both before, during, and after the vote. If they were just naive, however, and didn't actually want Trump to win, hopefully they will think twice about voting third party in the future.

If you don't care who will win, then vote third party. But if you just want to punish one of the candidates, while still wanting them to win...

Gary Johnson got 4% of the vote in Michigan - 173,021. Trump won (probably, Michigan remains the only state that hasn't certified the election yet) Michigan by 11,837 (Jill Stein got 50,686). Johnson got 4% also in Wisconsin- 106,442. Trump won that state by 27,257 (Jill Stein got 30,980). Johnson got 2% in Pennsylvania - 142,653. Trump won Pennsylvania by 68,236 (Jill Stein got 48,912). That's a wide enough margin that maybe Trump wins Pennsylvania narrowly even if 2/3 of Johnson's vote normally would have gone to the dem, and 1/3 to the republican. Nonetheless, that is three states that normally would have been thought to have been safe for the dems. States where one might think that a protest vote would not have tilted the outcome in Trump's favor.

Last edited by Kimon; 11-14-2016 at 10:54 PM.
  #89  
Old 11-15-2016, 03:30 AM
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And let's keep in mind why so many dems thought that Hillary had earned a clear field. She won the popular vote over Obama during the primaries in '08, but was a good soldier, conceded, and helped him win, then helped him govern. That's why.
And she got her reward: Donald Trump as president.

It may have been irrational, but oodles of voters really disliked her. This election was an unpopularity contest, and Trump turned out to be the less unpopular. He lost, so now he has to go to the White House; he may even have to spend an occasional night there.

The policies of Obama and Clinton may be the same, but Obama could sell them and Clinton could not.
This is exactly the problem. Democrats could never see past Hillary's résumé and her standing within the party to recognize that she was never going to be a strong candidate for president because of her history. It didn't even matter what she deserved as a person; her decision to run in 2016 negated whatever she had earned before because it was the wrong decision for the party.
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  #90  
Old 11-15-2016, 04:02 AM
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Which is exactly what I said. Which begs the question, why then are you trying to suggest that my premise is delusional? Johnson helped cause Trump's victory.
Only if you assume that those who now voted for Johnson would have voted for Clinton if Johnson hadn't been on the ballot. There is no evidence to support this idea; it seems more likely that they would have just stayed home. In which case Trump still would have won.

Clinton lost and Trump will start shaping the Supreme Court to his liking. That is the risk the Democrats decided to take when they went with a candidate who, like Al Gore before her, was not good at selling her program.

If anyone deserves blame for this, then it isn't Johnson. That blame belongs squarely to the Democrats who decided to reward Clinton with an election (which she lost) despite the fact that she was never a good candidate. Thus, it is actually a very good reminder of why having viable third parties is a good thing: if one party does not present a good option, then you can still pick another, sufficiently similar, party instead of simply not voting at all (as is the only remaining choice in the USA).
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  #91  
Old 11-15-2016, 07:52 AM
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Thus, it is actually a very good reminder of why having viable third parties is a good thing: if one party does not present a good option, then you can still pick another, sufficiently similar, party instead of simply not voting at all (as is the only remaining choice in the USA).
No, Gonzo. I'm not sure how much more obvious both this situation and the one in 2000 with Nader could be. Or, for that matter, in '92 with Perot, or in 1912 with Teddy. This is the result of a third party candidate. And a viable third party would naturally steal from either the right (like Perot), or the left (like Nader, Johnson, and Stein). They can't get elected. The way third parties have success here is however also how you've seen in this election - through infiltration. This is essentially what Trump did to the Republican party, and what Bernie almost did to the dems.
  #92  
Old 11-15-2016, 08:26 AM
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With "a viable third party" I do not mean "a third party which can take away some votes from one of the two actually relevant parties".
Instead, I mean a situation like that in the Netherlands, where one can chose from a dozen or so parties which have decent chance of getting into parliament, and two dozen more that probably won't make it but might produce a surprise result anyway.

Obviously, that won't work with a "winner takes all and screw everyone else" election system, so I admit that it is impossible in the USA. Tough luck; you'll have to make do with second rate politicians only.
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  #93  
Old 11-15-2016, 11:38 AM
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Originally Posted by GonzoTheGreat View Post
With "a viable third party" I do not mean "a third party which can take away some votes from one of the two actually relevant parties".
Instead, I mean a situation like that in the Netherlands, where one can chose from a dozen or so parties which have decent chance of getting into parliament, and two dozen more that probably won't make it but might produce a surprise result anyway.

Obviously, that won't work with a "winner takes all and screw everyone else" election system, so I admit that it is impossible in the USA. Tough luck; you'll have to make do with second rate politicians only.
Tenth rate at best.
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  #94  
Old 11-15-2016, 01:16 PM
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Tenth rate at best.
Our system produced Jefferson, Lincoln, both Roosevelts, Eisenhower, the Kennedys, LBJ, Clinton, and Obama, just to name a few of the best. Yes, it also produced Andrew Jackson, Hoover, Coolidge, Nixon, and Trump, but nonetheless, I'm guessing that both you and Gonzo recognize most or all of those names. Similar such lists of good and bad could be made for the Greeks, the Romans, the English, the French. Our system is not perfect, but it has worked pretty well, and there is a reason why the whole world pays attention to our elections, and knows who holds the imperium in America.

The same is not true of Finland, nor even the Netherlands.

Hillary Clinton was not a 10th rate politician. There are advantages to having a parliamentary system instead. But such a system produced Likud in Israel, Erdogan in Turkey, Berlusconi in Italy, and Hitler in Germany. Our system can produce good leaders, bad leaders, or simply mediocre ones. So can parliamentary systems. If we could utilize a coalition government, and if we were but voting for members of parliament, rather than a president, then voting for third party candidates would make pragmatic sense. But that is not how our system works. If greens want to push the dems to the left, then become a dem, like Bernie did, and like Jill Stein could do if she wished to be a serious candidate. If libertarians want to push republicans back to the center then Weld and Johnson should rejoin the Republican Party. So long as they run only outside the system, they are not making a real attempt to fix the system, only to protest and sabotage it.
  #95  
Old 11-15-2016, 02:13 PM
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Our system produced Jefferson, Lincoln, both Roosevelts, Eisenhower, the Kennedys, LBJ, Clinton, and Obama, just to name a few of the best. Yes, it also produced Andrew Jackson, Hoover, Coolidge, Nixon, and Trump, but nonetheless, I'm guessing that both you and Gonzo recognize most or all of those names. Similar such lists of good and bad could be made for the Greeks, the Romans, the English, the French. Our system is not perfect, but it has worked pretty well, and there is a reason why the whole world pays attention to our elections, and knows who holds the imperium in America.

The same is not true of Finland, nor even the Netherlands.

Hillary Clinton was not a 10th rate politician. There are advantages to having a parliamentary system instead. But such a system produced Likud in Israel, Erdogan in Turkey, Berlusconi in Italy, and Hitler in Germany. Our system can produce good leaders, bad leaders, or simply mediocre ones. So can parliamentary systems. If we could utilize a coalition government, and if we were but voting for members of parliament, rather than a president, then voting for third party candidates would make pragmatic sense. But that is not how our system works. If greens want to push the dems to the left, then become a dem, like Bernie did, and like Jill Stein could do if she wished to be a serious candidate. If libertarians want to push republicans back to the center then Weld and Johnson should rejoin the Republican Party. So long as they run only outside the system, they are not making a real attempt to fix the system, only to protest and sabotage it.
Obviously you are easier to impress than I am. Tenth rate at best.
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  #96  
Old 11-15-2016, 02:48 PM
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Hey Guys,

You know Im not all that good on american Politics but can I ask about Sanders for a minute?

He LOST the democratic vote. (the Primaries?) So why do people think he would have done better when he had already lost out to Hillary in his own party?
Honestly? He's a white guy going for change. Hillary got destroyed among the formerly white male democratic constituency. Regardless of policies, a lot of white guys would have voted for him that ended up going with Trump and "change"
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Old 11-15-2016, 02:51 PM
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Yeah, so? That doesn't make them any more likely to have voted for Hillary over Trump. We tried to tell you this back when you were trying to shove your unelectable candidate down our throats, but of course you didn't listen, and now you'll do anything to shift the blame elsewhere. Just accept it: people who voted for Johnson did so, for the most part, knowing full well that it could lead to Hillary losing. That was the point.
Yup...I remember saying it quite a bit. But hey, going with Hillary was a really really really smart move in hindsight, eh?
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  #98  
Old 11-15-2016, 02:57 PM
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Here's something that I've posted at least three times in one form or another on facebook. This is the last time I'll post it because I'm sick of having to defend my vote. MY VOTE.

80 million +/- Americans didn't even vote, but it's my fault?


Let's work through this, to keep Caseys sensibilities intact, in order for libertarians to be on the main stage, they have to achieve 5% of the national vote. Here in TN, where I live, any candidate not republican or democrat is listed as independent. That goes from the national level all the way down to the local level. The reason they're listed that way is because they have to get 5% of the national, national, national, vote. I was educated enough to know who to find in the mess of "independent" candidates to find the correct third party candidate to cast my vote for. This is why libertarians, Green Party, and constitutionalists have a tough time gaining any traction. The party system is set up to keep the sheep voting for them and not looking at others that may be closer to their true beliefs. As I said in another post, whoever came up with "a vote for so and so is really a vote for so and so" was brilliant and an incredible system advocating asswipe.

This year, there were 265 candidates in the election that were from or endorsed by the Libertarian party. There were over 100 Green Party candidates, and close to the same number of constitutional candidates. Again, the problem is that in most states they're just listed as independent candidates. This causes an enormous issue with voters and it all goes back to that 5% quota.

My biggest issue is that I see people rail against the third party voters, but not many say anything about the people that didn't vote. People want to get their panties in a bunch over third parties, but non voters...eh, whatever.

I also want to point out that I agreed with over 90% of my candidates platform. I run a libertarian page on facebook and I'm well versed in their platform. Also, I didn't vote for Johnson, he's as much a libertarian as Trump is a republican. If I had walked into the booth and had no third party candidates to vote for, then I would have abstained from voting for president. It's that simple, and if that was the case, then I feel like I could have taken some heat for one or the other getting elected.
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Old 11-15-2016, 04:38 PM
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Kimon Kimon is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nazbaque View Post
Obviously you are easier to impress than I am. Tenth rate at best.
No, merely impressed by different things. Considering our interactions, that is hardly surprising.
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Old 11-15-2016, 08:34 PM
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Nazbaque Nazbaque is offline
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Originally Posted by Kimon View Post
No, merely impressed by different things. Considering our interactions, that is hardly surprising.
Oh? So what was it that impressed me more than you?
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