Theoryland of the Wheel of Time

This file is unedited, just as we found it among Robert Jordan’s notes. It is a good example of the care he took to ensure that details in the books—in this case, related to information flow—would be internally consistent and realistic. Given the incidents referenced, it is safe to assume that the file was written early in the series.

TIMING
(Being a study of how long it will take information to travel various distances, and how long it will take people to travel various distances on horseback, in a cart or carriage, or afoot.)

ROUTES OF NEWS FROM TOMAN HEAD AND ALMOTH PLAIN.
[The route the news travels affects not only how fast it goes, but also how it is slanted.]

(1) From TARABON to AMADICIA. From AMADICIA to GHEALDAN and ALTARA. From ALTARA to ILLIAN and MURANDY. From MURANDY to ANDOR. From ANDOR to CAIRHIEN, also downriver to TEAR and MAYENE, upriver to TAR VALON, and thence fanning onward to SHIENAR, ARAFEL, and KANDOR.

(2) From ARAD DOMAN to SALDAEA, thence in turn to KANDOR, ARAFEL, and SHIENAR. From KANDOR, ARAFEL and SHIENAR each down to TAR VALON, thence to CAIRHIEN, to ANDOR, and on downriver to TEAR and MAYENE.

(3) By ship from TARABON to ALTARA, ILLIAN, TEAR and MAYENE. (Remember, ships calling at Illian seldom call at Tear or Mayene, and vice versa.)

(4) By ship from ARAD DOMAN to ALTARA, ILLIAN, TEAR and MAYENE. (Remember note under (3).)

By these reckonings, Andor and Cairhien would probably be the last places to hear. The White Tower might well receive news by pigeon and/or courier well ahead of many others, but how much of this would be shared with the general population is uncertain. The Amyrlin Seat, if she did not hear by the above means first of all, would certainly hear by the party with Mat, Egwene, Elayne, Nynaeve and Verin. This party would have traveled north of the Mountains of Mist, eventually crossing the Black Hills, finally reaching Tar Valon some two to three months after leaving Toman Head at the earliest. Baring pigeons, this would be one of the fastest ways to reach Tar Valon with the news.

Pushing hard, as he certainly would do, Byar would reach Amador in twenty to thirty days at a minimum. So Pedron Niall knows at least a version of what happened at least a month and possibly two before the Amyrlin Seat does.

By and large, it would take months for the news to travel. Under normal means, it might take as much as six or eight months to reach Andor and Cairhien.

News of great importance—the death of a king, a civil war—travels somewhat more quickly. [For example, Moiraine, on Toman Head, was able to tell Rand of the death of King Galldrian in Cairhien perhaps four months after it happened.]

NOTE: The Great Hunt of the Horn was sent out from Illian about "July."

Events on Toman Head happened approximately in "October" or "November."

The Hunters do not know that the Horn of Valere has already been found. Those who hear of it think it is merely a wild tale.
It is possible, given the time, that a Hunter may have made it to Toman Head, or even Falme, in time to see or hear of the Seanchan, or even the events at Falme.