Great. I'm turning into Siuan. I'm seeing a pattern, and I can't pick it apart.

List of facts/events in CoT:

1) Cadsuane left Samitsu 'in charge' of Cairhien, with orders to keep it quiet. Sashalle has pretty-much taken over from Samitsu, and Sashalle is a Wise One Apprentice and sworn fealty to Rand.

2) Ailil wants Aes Sedai support to be named High Seat of House Riatin. Samitsu objects, but Sashalle appears ready and willing to give it.

3) Dobraine is attacked and almost killed in Cairhien.

4) Deira is attacked and almost killed outside Caemlyn, an attack meant for Davram Bashere and one that mirrors Dobraine's attack.

5) Loial & Karldin appear in Cairhien

6) Toveine Gazal sends a message to Pevara, but it comes through Cairhien. Possibly indicates that she (and the Asha'man under Logain) went to Cairhien looking for Rand.

7) Elza's, Erian's and Sarene's warders Traveled from Cairhien, looking for them. They haven't met up with them yet, though. Elza's Warder is a darkfriend.

8) Loial, Logain & Bashere (who was in Andor) meet up with Rand in Tear. Loial came from Cairhien. Rand sends them to meet with the Seanchan.

9) After reporting to Cadsuane, Samitsu is sent back to Cairhien to watch Sashalle & the Aiel.

10) Theodrin informs Egwene that Romanda has sent 2 sisters to Travel to Cairhien to investigate a rumor that has the Yellows in a tizzy. A rumor linked to Nynaeve.

11) The Rebel Aes Sedai think the dragonsworn sisters in Cairhien were Compelled.

12) Gawyn & the Younglings are in a Tar Valon bridge town, having recently returned from the failed expedition to take Rand in Cairhien, and Dumai's Wells.

13) Alanna tracks Rand down in Far Madding. Alanna came from Cairhien with Cadsuane, and Rand ordered her to go back there to deal with potential rebellion.

14) Rand never openly appears in Cairhien after Dashiva's attack. He goes back once in Winter's Heart: to get the Access Keys.

15) Master Norry reports that some in Cairhien speak openly of coming to Andor to aid Elayne in taking the Lion Throne, so that she can more quickly take the Sun Throne.

So... what does this all mean? if anything?

When i see so many things pointing at the same place, it makes me wonder. There are a couple of obvious answers, but none of them seem to point to a consistent goal. (Yellows linking Nynaeve to the Cleansing, Rebel Aes Sedai accusing Rand of Compulsion, Tower Aes Sedai writing off Coiren's failure to capture Rand, etc.) However, there does seem to be a pattern of people either coming from or going to Cairhien, and all are looking for Rand. But Rand's in Tear, so many of the searchers end up there. That answer is too simple, to me anyway. Thoughts?

My thoughts:

Something big is coming, and it will come from Cairhien.

Why Cairhien?

Why not Tear or later on Illian? Because Rand has spent almost no time in either locale. He left Tear as soon as he had a supporting government in place to go to the Aiel Waste, and has since installed High Lord Darlin as his steward. The answer holds true for Illian. He left as soon as he had a supporting government in place, with Gregorin in charge.

Why not Andor? Actually Rand spent some time here and the presence of spies and agents from the White Tower and Salidar substantiate this. Darkfriends are also active there, as are several of Liandrin's thirteen. But The Salidar Army and Bashere's Army have both left Andor, leaving only Elayne's mercenaries, Arymilla's forces and the Borderland Monarchs there. If anything, Andor will be a very large distraction from the main event.

Why Cairhien? Rand has spent considerable time here and only left for what appears to be for good with the possible exception of an occasional gate in to check on things. This occurred after the attack by the Asha'man from Taim. This is the city to which Elaida sent her Reds to get Rand. The city is awash with Wise Ones, Aiel, Salidar AS, agents provocateur, and who knows what else. Every one with any brains outside of Cairhien will be sending agents in an attempt to get information about what is going on. Even Cadsuane came to the environs of Cairhien to ultimately find and influence Rand. Rand has started a number of technological initiatives that will supplant the need for some of the things that have depended upon the One Power and the Aes Sedai. Does Rand suspect that channelers will become less available, or is it purely his need to not destroy everything like his last incarnation did?

Addressing the facts/events listed above:

#1: Sashalle & Samitsu: Sashalle's bullying of Samitsu may be at the goading of Ezra, since Ezra is so rabid about getting Rand to the Last Battle in time to die. But that explanation is too simplistic: i hate blaming the boogie (wo)man just because there isn't another obvious culprit. More in #2 below...

#2: Ailil & Sashalle: CoT PROLOGUE - Glimmers of the Pattern: When Cadsuane departed a week past, leaving her in charge, her task had appeared straightforward. Make sure the Cairhienin pot did not begin to boil again. That had appeared a simple task at the time, though she had seldom dabbled in politics to speak of. Only one noble retained sizable forces under arms, and Dobraine was cooperative, for the most part, seeming to want everything kept quiet. Of course, he had accepted that fool appointment as "Steward of Cairhien for the Dragon Reborn." ... Yet so far Dobraine seemed to be using his new post only to run the city. And to quietly rally support for Elayne Trakand's claim to the Sun Throne, if she ever made one. Samitsu was satisfied to leave it at that, not caring one way or another who took the Sun Throne. She did not care much for Cairhien at all. Neither the possibility of Elayne Trakand taking the throne nor Dobraine's new title had brought nearly as much consternation as the ridiculous, and ridiculously persistent, rumors about the al'Thor boy going to Tar Valon to submit to Elaida, though she had done nothing to quell those. That tale had everyone from nobles to stablemen half afraid to breathe, which was very well and good for maintaining the peace. The Game of Houses had ground to a halt; well, compared to how matters normally were in Cairhien.

(Samitsu) "Most of Riatin's strength is not all. Those still tied to Toram will oppose her, with force of arms if necessary, and in any case, fostering upheaval inside the Houses themselves is no way to maintain the peace. There is a precarious balance in Cairhien now, Sashalle, but it is a balance, and we mustn't disturb it."

(Sashalle)"Upheaval will come whether or not we foster it," the other sister said firmly.

Eighteen of those Dragonsworn sisters remained in Cairhien - Cadsuane had carried some away with her, then sent Alanna back to take off still more - and others of the eighteen besides.

Ailil's request may just be a simple power play. But i doubt it, given the players. Ailil is Toram's sister, likely the late king Galldrian's as well. She's also who Rand bound and gagged along with Shalon during Dashiva's attack on the Sun Palace. Ailil's power-grab could be a similar ploy to the one Colavaere tried the last time Rand was out of town. Why would Ailil go to Sashalle? A Red? A Red who is an apprentice to the Wise Ones? Perhaps Ailil thinks by going to one who is sworn to Rand and subject to Rand's savages she'll avoid Colavaere's fate if things turn sour? Samitsu's reading of events is probably accurate: having Aes Sedai support for raising Ailil to High Seat will stir Cairhien up, and that's exactly what will happen, and what Cadsuane is trying to avoid.

#3: Dobraine's attack: The currently accepted theory is that Dobraine's assailants were after the Seals. Other items with the Seals were the access keys, though only Rand knows that they were hidden there, and possibly Nynaeve. There is one other possibility: Lanfear. She saw Rand with them before she died, but that was in Rhuidean. Could she, as Cyndane, be behind these attacks and attempts to reclaim the seals and the keys?

#4: Bashere: This is the part that's driving me insane. Why is Bashere in Caemlyn during Winter's Heart? He must've gotten there after the Illian/Seanchan battle at the end of PoD, and he obviously left after Deira was attacked. But why was he there? And with the Legion of the Dragon?

WH Prologue: Snow: Taim rubbed his chin thoughtfully, "I understand you've taken down the Dragon banners all over Caemlyn, Mistress Elayne." There was amusement in his deep voice if none in his eyes! Dyelin hissed in fury at the slight to Elayne, but he ignored her. "The Saldaeans have withdrawn to the Legion of the Dragon's camp, I hear, and soon the last of the Aiel will be in camps outside the city, as well. What will he say when he learns?" There was no doubt who he meant. "And after he's sent you a gift, too. From the south. I'll have it delivered later."

Part of me thinks the reason why Bashere was outside Caemlyn may have something to do with it, but i can't remember why he was there, or when he got there. Bashere was attacked too, though it was Deira who took the brunt of it. And judging from Bashere's orders to Tumad, Logain was there the day before the attack. And we know Logain has earned Taim's animosity... coincidence?

Deira's attack mimics Dobraine's. We know that Taim himself gave the seal to Rand, so it's a stretch to think that Taim is trying to get the Seal back. Besides, I doubt Taim would let a lackey kill Davram Bashere. Too much bad blood between them.

#5: Loial & Karldin: They came to Cairhien looking for Rand. They're obviously operating on outdated information. Loial has gone on to meet up with Rand in Tear. What about Karldin?

#6: Pevara's letter: Pevara got a message from Cairhien. Cot Chapter 22 - One Answer: Dipping her fingers into her embroidered belt pouch, she drew out a small piece of paper rolled into a thin tube. It seemed to her that it should glow with letters of fire. So far, she was one of two women in the Tower who knew what was written there. Even once she had it out, she hesitated before handing it to Tarna. "This came from one of our agents in Cairhien, but it was sent by Toveine Gazal."

The fact that the message came from Toveine is telling. Because of her Bond (and Bond-enforced orders) from Logain, she can't let herself be seen. BUT... WH Prologue – Snow: Elaida did not reveal why she was so desperate to lay her hands on one runaway Accepted, even one who might become a queen, but she never let a sister leave the Tower without orders on what to do if she encountered the girl. Be very careful, Elayne Trakand, Toveine thought. I would not like Elaida to have the satisfaction of laying hands on you.

Toveine can't let herself be seen, but she CAN send word that Elayne has been seen in Caemlyn. Granted that's probably not news in Tar Valon, but it's a roundabout way to let Tar Valon know about the Black Tower without outright violating Logain's order.

Also: Logain tells Rand that Taim gave the order. Given the entirety of their conversation before that gem revolved around Logain's (and other Asha'man's) bonding of Sisters, does this mean Taim ordered them Bonded? If so, why are all the Bonded sisters with Logain's faction? Could it be to draw the White Tower's fire away from him and toward Logain, and Rand?

#7: The incoming Warders: CHAPTER: 23 – Ornaments: "Bartol and Rashan do be coming," Erian announced loudly, agitation thickening Illian in her speech. Those were her two Warders, left behind in Cairhien. "I did no send for them, but someone did Travel with them. An hour ago, I felt them suddenly closer, and just now, closer again. They are coming toward us now."

Sashalle sent them, after Bashere talked her into it and Sorelia approved it. Samitsu told this to Cadsuane. Cadsuane orders Samitsu to continue to watch Sashalle and all the other Dragonsworn sisters. We know that at least one of them (Fera) is Black Ajah. The other confirmed Black among them was Katerine, but she escaped before swearing. Why would Bashere order the Warders back to their Aes Sedai?

#8: Loial, Logain & Bashere: They're sent to negotiate with the Seanchan. The Seanchan eventually respond, setting up a meeting between Rand and “the daughter of the nine moons.” This could be the trigger to the whole mess, but I doubt it'll happen in Cairhien. If it does, it just proves my point.

#9: The Yellow Rumor: CHAPTER: 30 - What the Oath Rod Can Do: Romanda has sent two sisters to Travel to Cairhien and investigate some tale that has the Yellow Sitters buzzing. I don't know what the rumor is, Mother, but I will find out. I heard one of them mention Nynaeve, not as if she were in Cairhien, but as if the rumor was somehow connected to her.

What rumor would send Yellows into a tizzy? Yellows are arrogance incarnate, after all. If the rumor is about Nynaeve's involvement in the Power flare, then why did it (the rumor) come from Cairhien? Cadsuane took Rand & Co. to that manor in Tear right after Shadar Logoth to recover, there was no stop in Cairhien. And if the Yellows have somehow linked Nynaeve to the cleansing, HOW did they do it? There'd have to be someone in Rand's group who got word out about it. A very off-the-wall idea may be that the Yellows have discovered that Logain is with the Black Tower, and lay blame for that at Nynaeve's feet.

#10: White Tower: We know from Glimmers and Yukiri's pov that the White Tower doesn't know where Rand is, but has its eyes-and-ears out looking for him.

CoT PROLOGUE - Glimmers of the Pattern: News from the outside world churned through her head despite her efforts to avoid it. Or rather, more often, the lack of solid news. ... The latest news from Murandy made her want to grind her teeth and weep at the same time, while Cairhien . . . ! Sisters all over the Sun Palace, some suspected of being rebels and none known to be loyal, and still no word of Coiren and her embassy since they departed the city, though they should have been back in Tar Valon long since. And as if that were not enough, al'Thor himself had vanished like a soap bubble yet again. Could the tales that he had half-destroyed the Sun Palace be true?

Since the Taking failed, Elaida hasn't sent more Sisters after him. And now that Elaida's reasserted herself over Alviarin, it looks like the one Sister (Coiren) who made it back to Tar Valon after Dumai's Wells will take the fall for that, not Elaida.

CoT 21 - A Mark: "Now let me see. What do I have to fear from you? The stories out of Cairhien are the talk of the Tower, but even if sisters really were obeying the al'Thor boy, which I for one cannot believe, everyone blames Coiren. She had the responsibility of bringing him here, and she has as good as been tried and convicted, in the minds of the sisters."

The Salidar embassy is now Dragonsworn, but considering that the Rebel camp thinks Rand used Compulsion on them I don't think they've sent more Sisters after him either. They don't know where he is, and they're blaming him for their embassy's demise.

#11: Compulsion: CoT CHAPTER: 18 - A Chat with Siuan

In the beginning, there had only been whispers, from the Ajahs or from Siuan's eyes-and-ears. There were Aes Sedai in Cairhien, and they seemed to move freely in and out of the Sun Palace while the Dragon Reborn was there. Then the whispers grew hoarse and uneasy, hesitant. The eyes-and-ears in Cairhien did not want to say it. No one wanted to repeat what their agents said. There were Aes Sedai in Cairhien, and they seemed to be following the orders of the Dragon Reborn. Worse were the names that trickled out. Some were women who had been in Salidar, among the first to resist Elaida, while others were women known to be loyal to Elaida. No one had mentioned Compulsion aloud that Egwene knew of, but they had to be thinking it.

CHAPTER: 30 - What the Oath Rod Can Do: Maigan met her gaze almost as levelly as Lelaine had, though, and her voice was as smooth as her face. She had no thoughts of filth. "Compulsion was used on sisters in Cairhien. That seems certain, now. But I was talking about the bond, a different thing entirely."

The Rebel Aes Sedai think the dragonsworn sisters in Cairhien were Compelled. They obviously don't have Verin's pragmatism on this issue. Why should they, nobody else does, except Moiraine and she's dead. Anyway, that combined with the Cleansing leads the Rebel Aes Sedai to consider an alliance with the Black Tower.

Eighteen of the Dragonsworn sisters remained in Cairhien - Cadsuane had carried some away with her, then sent Alanna back to take off still more - and others of the eighteen besides. Why? Is Cadsuane pulling in Sisters she can trust, or at least control?

#12: Gawyn & the Younglings: Considering Coiren is about to take the fall for Elaida's blunder, and Elaida's already tried to kill Gawyn off, Gawn's in a tough spot. He and the Younglings are in Dorlan, on the east bank of the Erinin, with the Salidar army between him and Tar Valon. Narenwhin Sedai is the Sister who came with orders from Elaida for Gawyn. Narenwhin is who Ronde Macura worked for. Ronde Macura currently works for Tuon, and was aboard her ship as it sailed into Ebou Dar. A trail that thick with coincidences is more than coincidence.

#13: Alanna tracks Rand down in Far Madding. He tells her “I may be done here by the time you finish in Cairhien. If I haven't. . . . If I haven't, you can return here. But you'll have to stay away from me until I say otherwise." Alanna came from Cairhien with Cadsuane, and Rand ordered her to go back there to deal with potential rebellion. But Sashalle is stirring up that potential rebellion with Ailil. And there is still one Black Sister among the Wise One's “apprentices” that we know of (Fera).

#14: Rand in Cairhien: Rand never openly appears in Cairhien after Dashiva's attack. He goes back once in Winter's Heart: to get the Access Keys. So why do people continue to flock there looking for him? Even after they've heard about the attack on the Sun Palace, and all the rumors spawned from it?

#15: Cairhienan support. Elayne nips this potential threat in the bud with a letter to every Noble House in Cairhien setting out her right to the Sun Throne, and pointing out that bringing Andoran soldiers to support that claim would be as repugnant as Cairhienans on Andoran soil. But in more diplomatic terms. Norry held back the tidbit of info that the Cairhienan would send her support until the end, and Elayne speculates on this for a brief moment.

That's what I have. It's long, convoluted, and I'm sure I lost myself several times in there. But i'm tired of beating my head against the desk on this one. Time to share the pain.