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hy the Seanchan will loose the war (eventually)

by Rand-althor: 2003-03-20 | Not yet rated

Previous Categories: The Seanchan

I was thinking, kinda along the lines Rand was about the seanchan being nearly unbeatable while fighting the shadow. Rand started speaking about the Seanchan startegy, fighting a battle, then sitting back and looking at what they did wrong, and inproving it. Now this seems like a good strategy, but there are 2 senarios where this fails.

1) Where the first major battle you fight with the enemy is also the deciding one

This gives you no chance to sit back and think about what was wrong, because you are already defeated if you did too much wrong. This is a very unlikely scenario, so I dont believe that this will happen.

2) You are not fighting one unified enemy force. In a way, most of the remaining westlands have allied against the seanchan. Not in agreement, but the spirit is to beat the seanchan and most wars seem to have been put off for a bit untill this happens. Of course there are still sieges, ones we know about being Tear, Tar Valon, and Camelyn. But these seem to not be coming to battles. Because there is no decided leader, we can slightly compare this to the Ten Nations. All fighting for the same goal, yet never really uniting. This sencario is happening in the books right now. There will be many generals fighting the seanchan, yet they will be reluctant to turn over control of their men.
This means that you will get almost as many strategies as there are generals. This means that the Seachnan generals will have to constantly be seeing what they did wrong, then focusing on making and keeping that strong, while in the meantime, they are being hit by a army making use of the weaknesses made by shifting the focus of strength. This means unless they can get super concentrating and super human soldiers, as well as generals who can all but see the future, they have little chance, because they have only really battled united enemies under basically one head leader telling the armies what to do, causing distinct strengths and weaknesses.

This, combined with the revelation that Sul'dam can actually learn to be Damane, will shatter the seanchan like glass.

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Comments

Tamyrlin: 2003-03-26

I don't know. I agree that against a United front in Randland, that it might present some problems, but currently Rand hasn't been able to do more than he did during that one battle and they continue to take more ground and cities. Their main strategy is to repopulate the land with their people, making it impossible to completely rid the land of their influence. How their military rebounds from loss can be troubling, but they seem to have a "we won't stop coming until we are all dead," and they have a ton of ships and troops and men to overcome any weakness in their Military Doctrine. Imho.

Weird Harold: 2003-03-26

Good strategists study history, especially military history, and plan according to how the situation compares to the situation they face.

For the Seanchan, military history contains the Consolodation, where they faced and overcame the problems that the second scenario presents them. The Military situation -- numerous uncoordinated forces -- is not something unexpected or particularly unusual in the history of Seanchan.

There are only two developments their Military history can't help them deal with with by standard aplictions of strategy and tactics -- Traveling and the "Aes Sedai Weapon" that destroyed the Kin's Farm. Of those two, one is an Illusion and the other is offset by the Seanchan Air Force to some extent.

Traveling and the implications for deep penetration behind enemy lines is the most realistic threat to the Seanchan and probsbly the main focus of the Seanchan military planners. What they will decide and how they will redeploy damane forces to counter the threat is a RAFO for sure.

While I can, from the perspective of modern RL military capabilities and tactics, think of a half dozen ways to defeat the Senchan decisively with the forces just Rand has available, I don't expect any of them to be used. The Seanchan will be absorbed or allied rather than defeated, and Tuon is the key to how it will happen.

There is only one person in the World who can countermand Tuon's decisions regarding Rand, the disposition of damane and sul'dam, and Seanchn military operations, or anything else -- The Empress, mslf. Tuon is not totally immune to the attentions of the Seekers, but she does have command of them in the Westlands and it would take an extraordinary Seeker to act against her without specific directions from the Empress. In practical terms, Tuon IS the Seanchan High Command and as Tuon goes, so go all of the Seanchan east of the Aryth Ocean.

I don't know how it will play out or if Tuon will become Empress in the process, but Rand *will* "Bind the Nine Moons to him" in the person of Tuon, and once that happens, the Seanchan either don't need to be defeated or *are* defeated, depending on your viewpoint.

Once Tuon is firmly in Rand's camp, an order to all Seanchan Military units will go out over her Seal that says, "Cease all offensive actions immediately. Consolidate your positions and defend against hostile action. Take no action except in defense against direct attack until further notice."

Tamyrlin's point about numbers of ships really only comes into play if the Seanchan continue to hold Ebou Dar and Tanchico and are hostile.

If they either lose control of those "beachheads" or the Seanchan controlling them ally with Rand, then landing of "hostile Seanchan" stops -- period. Those Seanchan already East of the Aryth will obey Tuon and those arriving are not expecting to fight their way ashore. Any hostile Seanchan sent to depose Tuon are back at square one as far as safe harbors are concerned, and landings will be opposed by Seanchan who know what to expect and can counter it.

IMHO, The revelation that Damane need not be chained and Sul'dam can channel is not going to be the shock or as devestating as people expect on Seanchan culture. A simple change in the definition of marath'damane, "those who must be chained," by Imperial decree will solve the crisis with minimal disruption to Seanchan ideals and philosophy in the long term. Any ill effect or disruption that may happen to the Seanchan culture will not be immediate enough to affect current events.

Callandor: 2003-03-27

Remember the simple thing Rand said to the Aiel: you were once peaceful. Look what happened?

The simple things taken for granted over long time, the Seanchan have had this idea of respect for sul dam and disgust for damane for over 1000 years, if changed can alter a person greater then any army and almost any other force.

Look at how some cuples are if they get divorced, or how so ideas are still kept after some countries or nations are already captured.

If Rand were to reveal the secret about sul dam and damane it would have the great effects akin to what happened to the Aiel.

Weird Harold: 2003-03-31

Callandor,

If Rand is the source of the information, then you may be right, but The information will come from Tuon and that will make a great deal of difference in how the Seanchan react.

Rand might not be believed, even if he did reveal the secret of sul'dam -- his is after all the "enemy" in Seanchan eyes, and can be expected to say anything to disrupt them. Even with demonstrations of chained sul'dam, it will boil down to Tuon's word against his in Seanchan minds.

Callandor: 2003-04-01

Wrong. Rand isnt the enemy. The Seanchan need him and they know they need him. They just believe that he must be chained by them. He is still THEIR savior as well.

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