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emirhage's Capture Was Not Fake
by Lord of the Dawn: 2005-10-27 | 6.11 out of 10 (19 votes)
Recent Categories: Rand, Semirhage, and the Capture
I've been reading a lot on the theories and Message Board that Semirhage set up her capture to "spread dissent into Rand's followers". In my opinion, I couldn't see one of the Forsaken actually giving themselves up after they've seen so many of them killed and not returning (eg. Rahvin, Asmodean, possibly Sammael).
Part 1 - Build Up
Point 1 - Mediocre Abilities
"TITLE: The World of Robert Jordan's the Wheel of Time
During the war she held several field commands, proving herself a general of only average abilites."
This passage tells us that Semirhage was never a gifted general, unlike Demandred or Sammael, and increasing her chances of miscalculating.
Point 2 - Underestimation
Semirhage is one of the Chosen, arrogant and overproud. She has never fought Rand head-to-head and does not know his abilities well.
"Title – Lord of Chaos
Chapter 6 – Threads Woven of Shadow
"Semirhage quickly checked the buffer between the woman and saidar. If it failed, she could mask the wretch again with no trouble, it was a measure of the woman's weakness that she could afford to leave the knotted buffer unwatched..."
"Title – Lord of Chaos
Chapter 6 – Threads Woven of Shadow
"That peculiar bond between Aes Sedai and Warder. Strange that these primitives should have come up with something that none of the Chosen understood, yet it was so."
Right there we see two quotes that show, like the rest of the Chosen, that they underestimate and scorn the Aes Sedai. As well, the woman who she was torturing in that chapter of the book was Cabriana, a classic Aes Sedai who is much weaker than many of the new Aes Sedai/Accepted/Novices (ex. Egwene, Elayne, Nynaeve, Bode, etc.). From what we know, Semirhage has never come in contact with one of the stronger ones and therefore underestimates Nynaeve and Cadsuane's abilities.
Remember as well that Nynaeve and Cadsuane had their abilities masked so that Semirhage couldn't sense beforehand and counter that.
If she sees the Aes Sedai that way, she would probably also see the Asha'aman that way, not being able to sense their channeling ability.
Point 3 - Overestimation
"Title – Fires of Heaven
Chapter 32 – A Short Spear:
"I didn't know that anyone but Demandred could block a gateway that was closing, and maybe Semirhage-and Lews Therin"
Title – Lord of Chaos
Chapter 51 – The Taking
"No three women could block him from the Source once he had taken hold of saidin, not unless they were as strong as Semirhage"
So from these quotes we learn that Semirhage is very strong even among the Forsaken and taking in 2nd point above, she would probably think that she and the sul'dam and damane could take on Rand's party.
Part 2 - Counter points
There are some points people can make against this theory, and are in favour that Semirhage's Capture was set up. Here I will try to address them.
Some comments have been made that Semirhage purposely dropped her weave of Illusion, but it seems to me from her reaction that it was not part of her plan, rather one of Cadsuane's, I believe, ter'angreal disrupting the weave.
TITLE: Knife of Dreams
Chapter 27 - A Plain Wooden Box
"Abruptly no more than ten paces away, she ... flickered. For an instant she was taller than most men, garbed all in black with SURPRISE on her face, and though she still wore the veil, her head was covered with short-cut wavy black hair. Only an instant before the small woman returned, her step faltering as she let her white skirts fall, but another flicker and tall dark woman stood there, her face twisted in FURY behind the veil."
(Emphasis Mine)
This quote shows that she was surprised and then angry. You might argue that she was acting or that she didn't attack right away, but I think she again underestimated the Aes Sedai and didn't believe that such a ter'angreal survived the Breaking. She wasn't expecting that and was too stunned to act for a moment.
People have also said about her reactions after being captured, about how she was too calm and acted proudly.
Title – Lord of Chaos
Prologue – The First Message
"Semirhage raised her eyes from her stitchery, unblinking dark eyes in a smooth dark face, then put aside the needlework and stood gracefully. "He will come when he comes," she said calmly. She was always calm, just as she was always graceful. "If you do not want to wait, then go."
This quote says that she was always calm, and Rand (or should I say LTT memories that he has) even comments later in the chapter that she never lacked courage.
You also might argue that she could have brought an army, or alot of damane, but that would cause unwanted attention to Semirhage and an inquisition by a Seeker might destroy her plans.
One more counter point is why she used a mere ball of fire.
Title: Knife of Dreams
Chapter 3 - At the Gardens
"The time and manner of al'Thor's death will be at my choosing. No one else."
With Moridin being Nae'blis, I believe he has a reason for wanting Rand to die at a specific time and in a specific manner - He made it pretty clear that no one is to kill him - and when Semirhage saw that she was captured, she wouldn't want to disobey Moridin while helplessly shielded.
I do, however, agree that Semirhage will make the best of her situation by trying to intimidate and spread dissent in Rand's followers, although I do not think that was her plan in the first place.
CONCLUSION
Semirhage slipped away masquerading as the DotNM with some of Tuon's sul'dam and damane to kidnap Rand and co. Underestimating their abilities, she thought that with the element of surprise, she could defeat them. She was unmasked by one of Cadsuane's ter'angreal and launched ONLY a ball of fire because of not wanting to disobey Moridin but wanting to at least cause some problems for Rand. Having been captured, she knows that her only way for freedom is to wait for a rescue or start to intimidate her jailers.
Comments
Tamyrlin: 2005-11-12
First, I don't agree that Semirhage simply went in wanting to be caught. However, I think she did go in with contingency plans. People who are "calm" have planned. She planned, and while being captured wasn't her goal, she was ready if it were to happen. Now to the points you bring up. I still find the explanation for the fireball to be weak. If it had hit Rand in the head or the chest, he would be dead. You don't simply try to "disable" channelers. You shield them if you want to capture them, you don't throw extremely deadly fireballs at them. So, the idea that she was trying to obey Moridin is farfetched. I do agree that she likely underestimated their abilities. However, she has been around sul'dam and damane and there are strong damane, so she knows there are strong Aes Sedai. She might have contempt for modern day channelers, but I doubt she believes they are all weak. There seems to be enough interest in this "capture" idea to put out both ideas.
haertchen: 2005-11-12
On why Semirhage's illusion was broken, everybody completely misses what is far and away the most important quote, which makes it as clear as air:
Knife of Dreams, "A Plain Wooden Box"
******************************
"One of them is channeling," Nynaeve said, just loudly enough for him to hear, as she climbed down from her saddle. "I can't see anything, so she's masked her ability and inverted the weave---and I wonder how the Seanchen learned that!---but she's channeling. Only one; there isn't enough for it to be two." Her ter'angreal could not tell whether it was saidin or saidar being channeled, but it was unlikely to be a man.
I told you it was a trap, Lews Therin groaned. I told you!
Rand pretended to check his saddle girth. "Can you tell which one?" he asked quietly. [Interlude describing what everybody is doing; no dialog.]
"No," Cadsuane replied grimly. "But I can do something about it. Once we're closer." Her golden ornaments swayed as she tossed her cloak back as though unmasking a sword.
*********************************
So there should be no more argument about it: Cadsuane used her ter'angreal to disrupt Semirhage's channeling. Perhaps more to the point, we can say with certainty that (a) Cadsuane has ter'angreal capable of doing that (otherwise why would she say she could?) and (b) it is extremely like she tried exactly that (why else would she mention doing something about it?).
One other thing worth mentioning is the possibility that Semirhage didn't know that ter'angreal like Cadsuane's and Nynaeve's existed. Unfortunately I can't find my roommates copy of Winter's heart (I don't own it) but isn't there a PoV (Demandred's, I think) during the cleansing where Demandred deduces that their company has such ter'angreal? IIRC, The important thing about his thoughts is that he had never heard of such ter'angreal before; he deduces their existence based on his knowledge of the breaking. It seems likely that all of Cadsuane's ter'angreal come from during or immediately after the breaking when the One Power, especially Saidin, was starting to get such a bad rap, and such ter'angreal would suddenly become much more useful.
Bryneshrimp: 2005-11-12
I think the point about Cadsuane's ter'angreal is likely, if only because RJ spent quite a few passages in KOD describing them and pointing them out. I remember in my first readthrough wondering why there was so much focus on them, and this could easily be one of Jordan's subtle hints.
Ozymandias: 2005-11-12
Some of your points seem not to go far enough. For example, you say she is masquerading as the DotNM (which she is). This means she can do ANYTHING. She doesn't need to slip away. A Seeker cannot prosecute the Imperial Family except by direct order of the Empress. So she has nothing to fear from the inside, i mean, she proved she could kill the entire Imperial Family already.
You say her only "average" abilities would prevent her from doing something intelligent. Once again, I see people dumbing down the Forsaken. Even an average field commander would realize that an attack on superior forces in broad daylight is foolish. She isn't stupid. And being the plotting, devious woman she is, im sure here twitchy mind already went through the possibility of HIM trying to capture HER. So why does she risk that, and bring a few more damane, or an honor guard, or something like that?
You say she has never fought Rand, and therefore does not know his abilities well. She fought Lews Therin (and possibly Sammael or Demandred, depending on when she held field command), the brightest general of his day, and she wasn't even said to be defeated. That she was an "average" field commander against his forces means she probably didn't lose very badly.
Listen. It would take an utter IDIOT (someone like Wieramon) to walk into this thinking that one could defeat and acknowledgedly SUPERIOR force, who will undoubtedly have even MORE units waiting, with an INFERIOR force. The terms of their bargain didn't mean Semirhage couldn't bring an army and leave them a mile back, like Rand did. And yet she didn't. Too trusting? I doubt it. There is no way to explain the fact that she came in horribly unprepared.
There are points to be made for this theory, I just think youre emphasizing the wrong ones
Callandor: 2005-11-12
**Semirhage is one of the Chosen, arrogant and overproud. She has never fought Rand head-to-head and does not know his abilities well.**
False. Semirhage was at the Cleansing (Jordan said so in the Q&A, though I would've loved to see her POV there). She's dealt with Rand and his group to some degree. Arguable how much, but she should've known Rand was incredibly strong, and was with incredibly strong people, and had a plethora of tools (though I doubt she knew the specific details of course).
**Remember as well that Nynaeve and Cadsuane had their abilities masked so that Semirhage couldn't sense beforehand and counter that.**
She still should've assumed any woman with Rand was a channeler.
**If she sees the Aes Sedai that way, she would probably also see the Asha'aman that way, not being able to sense their channeling ability.**
Even Graendal says the Asha'man are puppies -- dangerous puppies.
**So from these quotes we learn that Semirhage is very strong even among the Forsaken and taking in 2nd point above, she would probably think that she and the sul'dam and damane could take on Rand's party.**
Lanfear isn't that arrogant.
**This quote says that she was always calm, and Rand (or should I say LTT memories that he has) even comments later in the chapter that she never lacked courage.**
But you've just quoted the paragraph that shows her both being angry and shocked. That's hardly always calm.
**With Moridin being Nae'blis, I believe he has a reason for wanting Rand to die at a specific time and in a specific manner - He made it pretty clear that no one is to kill him - and when Semirhage saw that she was captured, she wouldn't want to disobey Moridin while helplessly shielded.**
Then why attack him at all?
JakOShadows: 2005-11-12
I agree with the fact that she didn't mean to get captured, but it does seem odd she didn't plan on the worst happening. It could be that she was trying to keep using the damane secretly without notice, but it seems she could sacrifice a little notice to capture the dragon reborn. Maybe even as the DotNM, it would be a bad idea to take too many damane from the army. And in that part, weren't the other sul'dam not too surprised at seeing "Anath" instead of Tuon, maybe she got the damane as Anath and then wover the MoM. It just seems like she could have tried to bring more. Arrogance doesn't seem like a logical solution though. She had to have an idea of the setup he'd have, she isn't dumb. And I also think she is cocky in the fact that she can get out of it somehow. Either by sowing dissension or getting freed. Which I think will comeback to bite her in the butt. And also, did anyone else love the way Cadsuane rebuked Semirhage. That was awesome.;)
haertchen: 2005-11-12
Something that I think must be absolutely cleaned up with regards to Semirhage, before we can make any sort of progress on this subject, is just how much influence she actually had with the Seanchen, and see if we can deduce a reason for her actions between when Tuon was kidnapped (or whatever) and when Rand captured (or whatever) her. Then we can decide just how feasible it was for Semirhage to have an army waiting for her when she tried to take Rand.
One point of view, the one that was implicit in my post above, is that Tuon's kidnapping caught Semirhage completely off-guard. She was surrounded by a culture that respected strict rank and tradition, and suddenly her effective rank was gone. (This presumes that the rumor that Tuon was AWOL spread before she could control it.) She had to improvise. She chose to play the role of daughter of the nine moons and get ready for her confrontation with Rand, trying to avoid too much exposure so as not to make the Seekers suspicious (there are limits to compulsion, after all; the number of people compelled at one time is probably part of it.) The points about the royal family being hands-off probably doesn't extend to Seekers who suspect an imposter, and constant attention by the Seekers might turn up something. Thus, in this scenario, her trap was not created under ideal circumstances, and it would be challenging to get an army in without someone raising some eyebrows. She would bring only what she actually thought she needed. Given Nynaeve's conclusion that it was a close call, she probably chose correctly. In Nynaeve's words:
Knife of Dreams, A Plain Wooden Box
"She shouted for them to shield us," Nynaeve said, "but they couldn't because we were all holding the power already. If we hadn't been, if Cadsuane and I hadn't had our ter'angreal, I don't know what would have happened." She did shiver."
The other is that she maintained complete control over the Seanchen, and at any time could have walked in in the persona of the DotNM and taken over. This sounds almost plausible, but I can't help but wonder what would have happened if she had actually tried. Would she have been able to truly disguise herself in front of people who had been around her for long enough? (Were there any such people?) Could she maintain it at night when she slept? Could the damane at some point have sensed what she was doing? I'm really just asking these questions. I think I'll let someone else try to answer these questions, because I've been assuming the scenario above this whole time.
mako0424: 2005-11-13
Egwene didn't mean to be captured, but after having been captured, she sees benefits and advantages that she wasn't aware of before.
I don't think Semirhage's capture was intended, but foreseen, yes!
She went in thinking she had been prepared, obviously not well enough, but nobody really knew the true strengths of those channelers showing up, and i always took it as obvious that Cadsuane obviously disspated the weave around Semirhage, she did not reveal this on purpose.
But, after capture, she is brave and courageous, but she knows dissension can be easily sowed, and will start to corrupt from the inside of the pitt.
I agree she could have brought an army if she wanted without unneccessary Seanchan attention, she obviously proved herself powerful, but by no means was she trying to kill Rand.
the fireball? its tricky, seems like an attempt to kill, maim, hurt him, but what ulterior motives exist are yet to be known, if any. I think though that this is the ends justify the means, Rand had to lose his hand and become partially blinded, and this was a plot turn, and easily allows semirhage to be the cause.
JakOShadows: 2005-11-13
mako:
I see your point about the fireball. But this point has also been brought up about Asmo's death, and RJ still seems to have killer and reason. So I don't think this will lack an explanation either. I don't think she expected Rand to not be able to stop the fireball either though, so who knows why.
And as to whether Anath had enough power to get an army, she probably did. But she might not have wanted to draw suspicion if she could avoid it. Because Tuon is already missing and about to turn up dead. And after that she might lose a lot of her power. So she had the power, but it would have been risky. And quote from Nynaeve there, so that proves that is by shear chance that one of the few people who had the rare ter'angreal and were strong channelers was there. If not, the story might have gone differently. Since Rand would have been incapacitated, he surely would have been captured. Of course that doesn't explain how she'll get out of there. I don't think could have held off the army of asha'man long enough for her to escape through a gateway. Unless she just meant to leave the sul'dam and damane there, then she might have had enough time. But she still had enough strength for the initial attack in a predictable circumstance(she couldn't have predicted the rare ter'angreal).
lurk: 2005-11-13
I just want to add something here.
I think some of you give too much credit to the forsaken. True they are not stupid but they are certainly not flawless, otherwise they would have won already from LTT in the AOL due to sheer numbers. True they came close but if they were flawless they would have won.
Every master tactician makes errors. only much fewer than average tacticians. Rand went after Rahvin and almost lost. Sammael thought his trap in Illian was good enough, he was wrong. Mat claims that he came out of some fights by sheer luck, not mastership.
Rodel Itualde and Mat claim that every plan is good until the fighting starts. Good commanders plan for failure and bad luck. Average commanders fail to plan properly for eventualities. Semirhage is an average commander. Her plan probably did not include contingency planning for ter'angreal disrupting her MOM because she was surprised. But I guess she is smart enough to take advantage of whatever opportunities present themselves during her capture.
I doubt if he really foresaw that she could be captured. But the proof of that will have to wait until book 12 I guess.
Lord of the Dawn: 2005-11-13
Tamyrlin:
I agree with you that she does have back up plans, or has at least thought up some way to escape. I just don't think that she meant to be caught and that she thought it more likely that she would win.
You're also right that the fireball seems difficult to explain & a weak reason. Perhaps she made it as a diversion so that Rand's party would try to protect him and her sul'dam would strike. She could have thought that she still had a chance of victory, and I don't think she expected Rand not to block it. Or, she could have been still a bit discomposed from the sudden turn of events and fired off the first thing that came to her mind - a simple and easy fireball.
Yes, she has been around some strong damane, but we're not sure how many, as most of them are as strong as normal Aes Sedai. The average one is probably weak enough for Semi to scorn. So she probably believes that most of the Aes Sedai are like that except for a few stronger ones. She also knows I'm sure that Rand doesn't control the White Tower and has limited Aes Sedai at his command. She would then probably think that, due to averages, would have maybe one stronger one and the rest weak. Remember also that she despises Aes Sedai and that hate can make you do or think foolish things.
haertchan:
Yes, that was the point I was trying to get at. Semi didn't PLAN for one of the Aes Sedai to bring in this ter'angreal, one that she maybe hasn't even heard of. She expected to be able to pull off this masquerade and the one reason that stopped her from winning were those ter'angreal.
Ozymandios:
***A Seeker cannot prosecute the Imperial Family except by direct order of the Empress. So she has nothing to fear from the inside, i mean, she proved she could kill the entire Imperial Family already.***
Remember that there are those who KNOW that Tuon isn't there. All of the High Blood there know that Tuon is missing so if Semi tried to take a whole army under the name of DotNM, these High Blood & Deathwatch Guards would come to see. I doubt that she could pull off being the DotNM, what with her ignorance of Seanchan manners & how Tuon would act. The High Blood would get suspicious. I know that she was with the Seanchan for a long while, but Tuon even talks (can't find the quote right now) on her way to Ebou Dar of Anath (Semi) being disrespectful. Maybe she could have made it off with more forces, but I think that in her arrogance she thought that she wouldn't need any more people.
Callandor:
***False. Semirhage was at the Cleansing (Jordan said so in the Q&A, though I would've loved to see her POV there). She's dealt with Rand and his group to some degree. Arguable how much, but she should've known Rand was incredibly strong, and was with incredibly strong people, and had a plethora of tools (though I doubt she knew the specific details of course). ***
She wouldn't have fought Rand and she knew he had the Choedan Kal. She can't sense how much HE is drawing, only Nynaeve. You can be pretty weak and be impossibly strong if you're using the Choedan Kal (and can handle it). Yes, she did fight some of his people, but it doesn't seem like she did anything important at the Cleansing (because of no POV). The people who she probably fought was one of the linked circles without angreal. On their own the people in those linked circles aren't too strong but together they're stronger.
***She still should've assumed any woman with Rand was a channeler. ***
Yes, but she doesn't know their strength. If she knew how strong they were, I doubt she would have stuck around.
***But you've just quoted the paragraph that shows her both being angry and shocked. That's hardly always calm.***
Just because almost all of the time you're angry and shocked doesn't mean you can NEVER show emotion. She was obviously not expecting that in the least and couldn't control her shock. And I would be pretty angry too if my whole plan unraveled from an unseen cause.
Also, remember the a'dam. Why would she bring all of those a'dam, including the male a'dam which everyone thinks is destroyed, to Rand and let him know of their existence if she wanted to be captured? It doesn't make sense.
What I think that everyone should think about is what she would have done if her illusion wouldn't have unraveled. She would be making a "truce" with Rand when
silverwolf: 2005-11-13
The comparison to Egwene's capture raises some interesting points. Think of it this way--Egwene went to the very walls of the harbor of Tar Valon, something that (logically) would be guarded, probably by Aes Sedai, and channels a massive amount of the One Power expecting not to get caught. She might have been able to do it from further away, and she definitely could have had some inverted weaves ready and masked her ability, but she didn't--she thought that what she was doing was sufficient. Semirhage, likewise, could have brought an army with her--but it would have taken time and drawn attention to her. She could have brought more damane, or some black sisters to come along; she didn't think it was necessary. Nynaeve's comments (quoted numerous times above and on other threads) and the injuries to Rand's party show that it wasn't a complete blowout--it was close. If we assume that Semirhage didn't know about the ter'angreal and thought she had the advantage of surprise, I don't think it's outside the realm of possiblity that she was confident of success. Saying that she has to have planned for her capture is like saying that Lanfear has to have planned for her...demise...when attacking Rand at the docks.
greyfalconway: 2005-11-13
maybe semirhage was going to talk to rand as the daughter of the nine moons, and when he had his guard down compel one of the asha'man, have her damane kill the other ppl, and snap the sad bracelets on rand/asha'man, then torture him or parade him around in front of the other forsaken or something, but since her mask was disrupted by cadsuanes ter'angreal, she was like "oh crap" and shot a fireball at rand hoping hed die before she was caught and tortured or whatever, since her own freedom/livelihood was more important than the nae'blis' wishes
Callandor: 2005-11-13
**Or, she could have been still a bit discomposed from the sudden turn of events and fired off the first thing that came to her mind - a simple and easy fireball.**
So, she's not always calm and composed, as you said before?
** All of the High Blood there know that Tuon is missing so if Semi tried to take a whole army under the name of DotNM, these High Blood & Deathwatch Guards would come to see. I doubt that she could pull off being the DotNM, what with her ignorance of Seanchan manners & how Tuon would act.**
So, why even try at all, if she didn't think she could pull it off?
**She wouldn't have fought Rand and she knew he had the Choedan Kal. She can't sense how much HE is drawing, only Nynaeve. You can be pretty weak and be impossibly strong if you're using the Choedan Kal (and can handle it). Yes, she did fight some of his people, but it doesn't seem like she did anything important at the Cleansing (because of no POV). The people who she probably fought was one of the linked circles without angreal. On their own the people in those linked circles aren't too strong but together they're stronger.**
You have a lot of misconceptions:
1. She did fight Rand and co. -- as I said was at the Cleansing.
2. If she wasn't going to fight Rand, why even confront him? It obviously was not going to be easy.
3. Only the strongest of Aes Sedai can use the Choedan Kal and survive. Not just anyone can.
4. Unless Semirhage is blind, deaf, and dumb, she's heard of Rand's strength from the other Forsaken or other people.
**Yes, but she doesn't know their strength. If she knew how strong they were, I doubt she would have stuck around.**
Point is, she allowed Rand to take an honor guard. The most basic level of intelligence would've seen Rand taking as many channelers as he could. Hell, we've been saying that for over two years.
**Just because almost all of the time you're angry and shocked doesn't mean you can NEVER show emotion. She was obviously not expecting that in the least and couldn't control her shock. And I would be pretty angry too if my whole plan unraveled from an unseen cause.**
But why would you be so calm about it less than 10 minutes later?
**Also, remember the a'dam. Why would she bring all of those a'dam, including the male a'dam which everyone thinks is destroyed, to Rand and let him know of their existence if she wanted to be captured? It doesn't make sense.**
Why would she have them in a box inside a house either? Furthermore, why wouldn't she bring it to be convincing? If it works out, hey, great that Rand's an idiot. If it doesn't, the plan goes ahead.
**Then she uses the a'dam to capture them.**
The problem is how was she going to get them on Rand. We're making a truce, so have some jewelry? Force them on Rand?
Khazhul: 2005-11-14
I am with the camp that says she didn't plan on getting captured, she is just trying to survive now. Even the Forsaken must know that thier capture could/should lead to trial, stilling, and death.
haertchen: 2005-11-14
**** All of the High Blood there know that Tuon is missing so if Semi tried to take a whole army under the name of DotNM, these High Blood & Deathwatch Guards would come to see. I doubt that she could pull off being the DotNM, what with her ignorance of Seanchan manners & how Tuon would act.****
**So, why even try at all, if she didn't think she could pull it off? **
I think what we are trying to get at is that the fewer people she interacted with as DotNM, the less likely it would be that people would get suspicious. She tried because capturing Rand is so important, but she tried to minimize the risk that the Seanchen would get suspicious. It's not an all or nothing situation, it's a "how much can I get away with" situation.
mako0424: 2005-11-14
My problem with this Callandor, if she planned on being captured, what would naturally be her primary objectives.
Possibly:
1. Cause dissension
2. Turn Rand to the Shadow
3. Become an insider Spy and report her information to the Dark one, ie. size of armies, number of channelers...etc.
Out of all these possibilities, only the third one seems remotely possible, , not knowing of course how good Semi is at causing insurrection.
But she is going to be constantly shielded, and pummeled for answers, and Age of Legend weaves, and i don't see how she is going to convert Rand without 13 Myrrddraal or channelers.
So it would seem that her intent was not to get captured, but to take Rand captive, and use him forcefully at TG.
Lord of the Dawn: 2005-11-14
*** So, she's not always calm and composed, as you said before? ***
As I said, you can't be calm and composed always .
*** Just because almost all of the time you're angry and shocked doesn't mean you can NEVER show emotion. She was obviously not expecting that in the least and couldn't control her shock. And I would be pretty angry too if my whole plan unraveled from an unseen cause. ***
-Quote from my last reply
She was still a bit unsettled from this unseen outcome.
*** You have a lot of misconceptions:
1. She did fight Rand and co. -- as I said was at the Cleansing.
2. If she wasn't going to fight Rand, why even confront him? It obviously was not going to be easy.
3. Only the strongest of Aes Sedai can use the Choedan Kal and survive. Not just anyone can.
4. Unless Semirhage is blind, deaf, and dumb, she's heard of Rand's strength from the other Forsaken or other people. ***
I don't think you understand me.
1. I know she was at the Cleansing, its that she was never mentioned. She could've fought one of the linked circles who are a combo of not very strong channelers, thus not telling her how strong some of the people with Rand are.
2. She fought him because she thought she would win, and she probably would have if that ter'angreal had not done its job.
3. Okay, I made a mistake with the Choedan Kal but it doesn't make a difference
4. The Forsaken don't meet too much and are known for their scheming and untruthfulness. As well, Forsaken don't go discussing things with each other if they're not in an alliance, and I believe that Dem and Mesaana have never fought Rand either. What with the info she had, she would have to make a rough estimate.
*** Point is, she allowed Rand to take an honor guard. The most basic level of intelligence would've seen Rand taking as many channelers as he could. Hell, we've been saying that for over two years. ***
Again, I meant that they would obviously be channelers, but Semi didn't know the level of their ability in the OP.
*** But why would you be so calm about it less than 10 minutes later? ***
Because she had composed herself. They've talked about it a lot in the books about how AS almost never lose their composure and when something does get them to lose their composure, they regain it in a couple of seconds or minutes. This would apply to Semi too.
*** The problem is how was she going to get them on Rand. We're making a truce, so have some jewelry? Force them on Rand? ***
Answered it too in my last reply.
*** She would be making a "truce" with Rand when she kills/captures some Aes Sedai and Asha'aman with inverted weaves, and gets the sul'dam to attack. She would have complete surprise because we hear that Rand is relieved when he sees a woman matching the descriptions given by Bashere. Then she uses the a'dam to capture them. ***
*** Even the Forsaken must know that thier capture could/should lead to trial, stilling, and death. ***
Good point Khazul, that's what led me to thinking that her capture wasn't a set up.
*** I think what we are trying to get at is that the fewer people she interacted with as DotNM, the less likely it would be that people would get suspicious. She tried because capturing Rand is so important, but she tried to minimize the risk that the Seanchen would get suspicious. It's not an all or nothing situation, it's a "how much can I get away with" situation. ***
Thank you Haertchen! ;)
hurler: 2005-11-14
Just a small point, but if Semirhage was trying to be captured would she be carrying A'dam with. Mogheiden certainly is proof against fordsaken immunity.
evilbeaver: 2005-11-14
It seemed obvious to me that Semirhage was planning something nasty and merely got bushwacked because she underestimated the abilities of the party coming to meet her. There are several points where RJ makes a point of showing that Semirhage was not expecting the events to go in that direction, as well as the fact that the surprises came from things that Semirhage did not believe they had the ability to accomplish (ter'angreal & inverting weaves).
As to the fireball, most of the forsaken are afraid to use balefire, and if I were a forsaken I would definitely NOT risk unravelling the Dragon's thread. There might not be a world to rule if that an important of a thread simply unravelled.
Without balefire, fireballs and lightning bolts are among the most deadly things you can throw at somebody else, I don't think she was holding back.
Lord of the Dawn: 2005-11-14
It seems to me that it is only logical that Semirhage did not go in wanting to be captured. It would be too risky and she would be gambling with her life for small benefits.
But, if we assume that she went in trying to capture Rand but with back up plans if she failed, it all makes sense. Either she captures Rand or she gets captured and has a back up plan, like spreading discord and dissension or a rescue. It just doesn't make sense to say that she was only trying to get herself caught.
ranman38: 2005-11-15
People who are arrogant are calm as well. Being sure that YOU CANNOT FAIL brings a sense of calm, a ridiculous stupid sense of calm, but calm nonetheless.
FraKcture: 2005-11-15
My first impression is that the capture was not fake. There was one part about the scene that bothered me / pissed me off. I felt that Rand should have threatened Semirhage with balefire to get his hand back. Something to the effect of "Give me one good reason why I shouldn't balefire you right now to get my hand back." At the least, he should have thought about it and then reasoned against it. There are some compelling reasons to NOT balefire Semi, so I'm not saying that Rand SHOULD have. I'm just saying I thought it was a bit unrealstic that he did not consider and / or threaten it. I don't think Semirhage thought she would damage Rand the way she did, since it was only because of the LTT struggle that Rand's defense was so minimal. But this is not evidence for or against the fakery. It could have been just a diversion to slow Rand down in an attempt to capture him (suggesting NOT fake). Or it could have been simply an act to make it appear that way (suggesting WAS fake).
It just seems too much of a disadvantage for Semi to allow herself to be captured. The best argument is that she will be a spy of some sort which will allow Rand's movements to be tracked. But she has no guarantee that she will be allowed to stay near Rand. If the capture was fake, then I would think that there is also a pre-planned rescue as well. Perhaps Moridin has laid out a plan and this is one of the first steps. But we have no evidence of such a plan.
In fact, the whole thing came so close to succeeding that I don't think you can argue that the primary plan from the start was for Semirhage to be captured. I think that at best you could argue something like Moridin saying "Ok Semi, set up your trap. If it works, great. If not, I'll come bail you out." And I don't know that it's Moridin that she's relying on, but it would have to be someone. Unless you believe she has some trick up her sleeve (a ter'angreal maybe) that's going to allow her to channel or something even when shielded. But now we're getting really loony.
There's the angle of Semirhage seeming to know something of Rand's mental state. Perhaps she believes she can drive him over the edge. But again, there's no guarantee that she will even see him. I suppose she can sow discord even if Rand isn't there. (i.e., convincing others that he is going insane.) But again, at best it seems that this is a backup plan.
I believe that Semirhage made a serious effort to capture Rand, but there is a contigency plan for her rescue and she is depending on other allies at this point to get her out of the mess. In the meanwhile, she will spread dissension from within. I have not seen any evidence at this point strong enough to convince me otherwise.
FraKcture: 2005-11-15
Sorry for the double post.
Callandor, regarding the a'dam:
"Why would she have them in a box inside a house either? Furthermore, why wouldn't she bring it to be convincing? If it works out, hey, great that Rand's an idiot. If it doesn't, the plan goes ahead."
"The problem is how was she going to get them on Rand. We're making a truce, so have some jewelry? Force them on Rand?"
This is one of the most compelling arguments that the capture WAS fake. It seems a bit odd that they were left in the house, and yet where they could be easily found. If they were going to use them, why wouldn't someone have one with them at the actual meeting? (They came in handy when Suroth's group collared Egwene.) And if you were saving them to be used later (after Rand was shielded, say), why not at least have them out of sight a bit? (In a box on a shelf, a trunk in a bedroom, or something.)
Semi would be the type to enjoy making a spectacle out of the collaring though. (Parade a shielded Rand and the Asha'men into a prepared room and collar them.)
Overall, though, this evidence is not strong enough to suggest that the scene's primary purpose was to end with Semirhage being captured. At best, it's just a little fishy.
Lord of the Dawn: 2005-11-15
Yes the a'dam were fishy.
*** It seems a bit odd that they were left in the house, and yet where they could be easily found. If they were going to use them, why wouldn't someone have one with them at the actual meeting? ***
Semi probably thought it more likely tha she would come out on top, and her plan would have worked, from my point of view, if not for the ter'angreal. Also, it would have been pretty suspicious and perhaps blown her surprise if she had them with her during the meeting.
evilbeaver: 2005-11-15
Why would Moridin want Semirhage to be captured and spy, when he can already see and sense Rand from the bond they got when their balefire streams crossed?
Also, Semirhage sitting there w/ adams in her hand would probably send just the *tiniest* bit of apprehension among the ground meeting her, she'd have to keep them hidden until she had incapacitated the group.
JakOShadows: 2005-11-15
frackture:
Actually, having them in the box handy makes sense. You would to be able to get to them quickly, but you want them just out sight so no one suspects something at first. So having them in the box where they are actually makes sense, and she wasn't planning on hiding them from him, because the only way he would find them is if he was captured, then the whole plan would fly out the window anyway. She would be moving to plan b already.
Callandor: 2005-11-15
**I think what we are trying to get at is that the fewer people she interacted with as DotNM, the less likely it would be that people would get suspicious. She tried because capturing Rand is so important, but she tried to minimize the risk that the Seanchen would get suspicious. It's not an all or nothing situation, it's a "how much can I get away with" situation.**
But if it is so important, why not go for broke? Why not take as many people that you can with you to get Rand? My point was that if people say that Semirhage needed to do this quickly, since she was so "ignorant" of Seanchan manners and how Tuon would act, why even concieve of it? And if it is so important, again, why wouldn't she say "Well, I need to get that bastard so I need to get all these people to help me to make sure."??
**As I said, you can't be calm and composed always .**
Yes, after saying this:
**This quote says that she was always calm, and Rand (or should I say LTT memories that he has) even comments later in the chapter that she never lacked courage.**
So, which is it? Is she always calm and collected, or not?
**1. I know she was at the Cleansing, its that she was never mentioned. She could've fought one of the linked circles who are a combo of not very strong channelers, thus not telling her how strong some of the people with Rand are.**
The fact that she was at the Cleansing, and that the Forsaken were collectively handed their own @#$, doesn't ring a few bells in someone's head that maybe, just maybe, that they are a bit well prepared and capable?
Again -- at the very least, she would know to take caution of Rand's strength, and that he was in the company of at least one incredibly strong female channeler (hence why the Choedan Kal worked for women).
**2. She fought him because she thought she would win, and she probably would have if that ter'angreal had not done its job.**
But you said this:
**She wouldn't have fought Rand and she knew he had the Choedan Kal.**
Hence my question of, why even confront him?
**3. Okay, I made a mistake with the Choedan Kal but it doesn't make a difference**
Yes, it does. It proves that Rand has at least one strong female channeler in his group. All the Forsaken would know that at the least, some would know far more. So, again, Semirhage should've been expecting any woman with Rand to be a channeler, and would've had reason to think she was a problem. Not to mention, all the Forsaken that came to the Cleansing faced difficulty that could easily be attributed to ter'angreal (notibly the detection ones).
**4. The Forsaken don't meet too much and are known for their scheming and untruthfulness. As well, Forsaken don't go discussing things with each other if they're not in an alliance, and I believe that Dem and Mesaana have never fought Rand either. What with the info she had, she would have to make a rough estimate.**
The Forsaken all know Rand is Lews Therin reborn. They all know Lews Therin was a very, very, strong channeler. That is undebatable.
**Again, I meant that they would obviously be channelers, but Semi didn't know the level of their ability in the OP.**
Again, she would know Rand was a powerful channeler, along with one female at least. She should've suspected Rand would take his most powerful channelers with him for this meeting and that anyone with him was a channeler.
You're saying that doesn't matter, since she didn't know their strength. That doesn't make any sense.
**Because she had composed herself. They've talked about it a lot in the books about how AS almost never lose their composure and when something does get them to lose their composure, they regain it in a couple of seconds or minutes. This would apply to Semi too.**
Great, then don't say she's always composed and try to use it against her planning on getting captured.
**As to the fireball, most of the forsaken are afraid to use balefire, and if I were a forsaken I would definitely NOT risk unravelling the Dragon's thread. There might not be a world to rule if that an important of a thread simply unravelled.
Without balefire, fireballs and lightning bolts are among the most deadly things you can throw at somebody else, I don't think she was holding back.**
But then she is breaking Moridin's orders.
**Semi would be the type to enjoy making a spectacle out of the collaring though.**
Where's that stated? If she was torturing Rand, then I'd be more inclined to believe it.
Dumai Wells: 2005-11-16
Honestly, the "flicker" in my opinion does prove that one of Cadsuane's terangreal must have disrupted Semirhage's weave and the capture was not fake. Let's talk about what the real issue is. The reason people are so confused and in disarray when it comes to this scene is because of Robert Jordan. I have a question to ask. Am I the only one that thinks that chapter was bad writing? The way it was set up, the way it progressed, to even the way Rand lost his hand, it just seemed like something totaly out of wack. I love this series, have read each book except for COT atleast 20 times but RJ is slipping. KOD was a good book, better than some of the other ones but I just feel that some of what made this series so incredible is now lacking and there is no other way to slice it.
FraKcture: 2005-11-17
Evil beav, I started to mention the part about why have Semi spy when Moridin already has the link. But I have not decided 100% how much Moridin is able to spy, and how often. He may want something better. In any case, it is definitely a mark against Moridin being involved in a fake Semi capture. (But it doesn't provide evidence that Semi does not have other allies that are involved in a scheme.)
With the illusion going on (and arguably, even without an illusion), it should have been easy for Semi to have a hidden a'dam on her. (I'm not saying actually have it on her wrist, although even that might have been possible.) I don't buy the argument that it would have aroused suspicion to have it with her. Heck, it would have made a decent last line of defense. If she was shielded by Rand or an Asha'man, but not wrapped with flows of air, and had the a'dam on her, she might have been able to slap the a'dam on whoever had her shielded. (And release her sheild, fire a weapon, etc.)
Nonetheless, I'm still of the opinion that the capture was genuine. Just playing devil's advocate for the parts I thought were fishy.
Lord of the Dawn: 2005-11-17
*** But if it is so important, why not go for broke? Why not take as many people that you can with you to get Rand? My point was that if people say that Semirhage needed to do this quickly, since she was so "ignorant" of Seanchan manners and how Tuon would act, why even concieve of it? And if it is so important, again, why wouldn't she say "Well, I need to get that bastard so I need to get all these people to help me to make sure."??
1. She would have captured Rand if the ter'angreal hadn't broken the weave. They wouldn't have seen it coming. She didn't need any more people and decided to not rouse suspicion.
2. Maybe she conceived it because she had a back up plan if it went wrong, but she didn't think it would go wrong. Or Moridin could've ordered her, but I doubt that.
*** So, which is it? Is she always calm and collected, or not? ***
That is a direct quote from LTT. He doesn't see her all the time. People tend to put things into the superlative. As far as I know, she and LTT didn't know each other on a personal level. I don't think she foresaw this ter'angreal... I don't even think she's heard of one.
*** But you said this:
**She wouldn't have fought Rand and she knew he had the Choedan Kal.**
Hence my question of, why even confront him? ***
You took that quote out of context. I was saying that she didn't directly fight Rand during the Cleansing, and she can't judge his strength without the Choedan Kal.
And I doubt that she thought he would be carrying around the Choedan Kal to the meeting. She doesn't even know if the Choedan Kal are still intact.
*** Yes, it does. It proves that Rand has at least one strong female channeler in his group. All the Forsaken would know that at the least, some would know far more. So, again, Semirhage should've been expecting any woman with Rand to be a channeler, and would've had reason to think she was a problem. Not to mention, all the Forsaken that came to the Cleansing faced difficulty that could easily be attributed to ter'angreal (notibly the detection ones). ***
Yes it does, but, again, if her plan had gone right, she would have dealed with all of the strong women and men without them seeing it coming. It wouldn't have given them time to react.
*** The Forsaken all know Rand is Lews Therin reborn. They all know Lews Therin was a very, very, strong channeler. That is undebatable. ***
He is not the direct rebirth of LTT (therefore LTT in his head) and how would she know that he had recieved all of his talents? Seeing (and experiencing) is much better than hearing or assuming.
*** Again, she would know Rand was a powerful channeler, along with one female at least. She should've suspected Rand would take his most powerful channelers with him for this meeting and that anyone with him was a channeler. ***
Yes, but she doesn't know how powerful. And assuming often gets you wrong answers, like you misjudge and think they would be weaker, for example.
*** You're saying that doesn't matter, since she didn't know their strength. That doesn't make any sense. ***
No , I'm saying that she would have to guess their ability, instead of knowing their strength, and people make mistakes in guessing.
*** Great, then don't say she's always composed and try to use it against her planning on getting captured. ***
It was a quote, as I have already explained. She probably didn't even know that that ter'angreal existed. Wouldn't you be surprised if you whole plan came crashing in because of something she doesn't even know happened? I hardly think that that is a regular cimurcumstance. The Forsaken are not used to finding things that they did not know about in their own age (Warder bonds, etc.).
*** With the illusion going on (and arguably, even without an illusion), it should have been easy for Semi to have a hidden a'dam on her. (I'm not saying actually have it on her wrist, although even that might have been possible.) I don't buy the argument that it would have aroused suspicion to have it with her. ***
It could be that she was arrogant, was sure of her plan, and didn't think she would be needing a last line of defense. Or she didn't plan it out as well as she could.
What I just don't see is why wouldn't she try and capture Rand? Why would she just try to get herself captured? When she could capture Rand, and if she gets caught, she spreads dissension and intimidates her jailers and perhaps has a rescue planned out with other Forsaken. I just seems, to me, illogical that she would only be aiming at getting herself captured.
Ashaman Samuel: 2005-11-17
Dumai Wells may have a point in that RJ just really screwed up when he wrote the chapter. Maybe we'll get some more information from TOR QotW and RJ's blog about this one...
CyberFade: 2005-11-17
Dumai Wells, I found the chapter was written just fine if it hadn't been the last word on the subject in KoD. In addition you have to assume that Semi had an actual plan that had a chance of working, which isn't that much of a stretch. If we had a later scene with anyone there, I would have been fine with that chapter.
(I really shouldn't have responded--too many cherry picked quotes in this thread. Context matters!)
FraKcture: 2005-11-18
Callandor, I bet you were on the debate team in high school. You have us arguing over the definition of "always". Lets look at it this way: Your average commoner in Randland who had seen or met an Aes Sedai a handful of times would probably say that an Aes Sedai is always calm, cool, and in control. That is certainly the image that they project to the public. Does that mean that they are calm 100% of the time without exception? Obviously, no. Especially not in private. And we can see (in their thoughts) how irritated some of them can get if they ever do publicly lose their cool, even for a split second.
The quotes about Semirhage always being calm places her in this category. Is she ALWAYS calm? Personally, I believe that it was a measure of how suprised she was that she lost her composure. Recall the reaction of the Salidar Aes Sedai in Caemlyn when Rand disrupts their Mirror of Mists:
(Lord of Chaos, "Mirror of Mists":
"Their Mirror of Mists shattered. Suddenly there were only seven normal women standing in front of him with stunned faces. Shock vanished behind Aes Sedai tranquility in an instant, however."
Always doesn't always mean always. We had never seen Semirhage lose her cool. So from our POV, she was "always" in control. But finally something happened to her that was suprising enough that she did lose it.
I just hope we can move past the definition of "always" now.
"**Semi would be the type to enjoy making a spectacle out of the collaring though.**
Where's that stated? If she was torturing Rand, then I'd be more inclined to believe it."
Sheesh... okay, let me rephrase. Based upon what we have read about Semirhage and how she enjoys torturing people, I personally feel that she would be the type to enjoy collaring and torturing Rand. In fact, I think she would want to make quite a spectacle of it. These are my personal feelings. I don't believe you will find them written down in any of the books. But don't be too suprised when you read this in book 12 (and maybe this should be a prediction):
"I was really going to enjoy making quite a spectacle of collaring Al'Thor," Semirhage said again, casting a sideways glance at the old hag with all of the hair ornaments.
"That's 'the Lord Dragon' to you!" the old woman said sharply, birds and stars twinkling mysteriously.
Semirhage stared back calmly. She was always calm. Well, almost always. Always never really meant always unless the Great Lord said so. And sometimes not even then.
The Aes Sedai leaned towards her and lowered her voice, though. "So, you say you have some ideas about how to make him laugh AND cry?"
Semirhage's eyes took on an evil glint. Her smile was a razor. "Let the lord of chaos rule."
The old woman's laughter filled her head.
The End of the Prologue, Book 12, The Wheel of Time
JakOShadows: 2005-11-18
Frackture, you have a good point, but I don't think Cadsuane wants it done in quite that way.
Callandor: 2005-11-19
**1. She would have captured Rand if the ter'angreal hadn't broken the weave. They wouldn't have seen it coming. She didn't need any more people and decided to not rouse suspicion.**
1. That's a leap to just say she would've succeeded. She would've needed to get the bracelet on Rand, and again, just hand it to Rand and expect him to put it on?
2. Again, you're the one that said this was so important. If it was, who gives if the Seanchan get suspicious? Who cares? The Forsaken would have Rand. That's quite important, yes? So who cares if the Seanchan get a suspicious nature going -- the payoff would be well worth the ways of doing it.
**2. Maybe she conceived it because she had a back up plan if it went wrong, but she didn't think it would go wrong. Or Moridin could've ordered her, but I doubt that.**
Back up plan if what went wrong?
If Semirhage is so ignorant of Seanchan culture, and how Tuon would act -- why would she even TRY to pull off such a stunt?
**That is a direct quote from LTT. He doesn't see her all the time. People tend to put things into the superlative. As far as I know, she and LTT didn't know each other on a personal level. I don't think she foresaw this ter'angreal... I don't even think she's heard of one.**
First you say she's always composed and calm. Then, you say she's not. Then, you say she is. Which is it?
**You took that quote out of context. I was saying that she didn't directly fight Rand during the Cleansing, and she can't judge his strength without the Choedan Kal.**
**And I doubt that she thought he would be carrying around the Choedan Kal to the meeting. She doesn't even know if the Choedan Kal are still intact.**
I never said Rand would bring the Choedan Kal to the meeting. Again, Rand used the Choedan Kal, WITH A WOMAN at the Cleansing. Ok? Semirhage was at the Cleansing. Being from the Age of Legends, and knowing about the Choedan Kal, she would know that anyone using the Choedan Kal has to be incredibly strong. Ok? Hence, she should have anticipated that any woman in Rand's group at the meeting would've been the one that used the Choedan Kal, and hence incredibly strong.
And, again, this can be used to know that Rand himself is incredibly strong, as well as any word from the Forsaken. They all know that he is strong -- why wouldn't Semirhage?
**Yes it does, but, again, if her plan had gone right, she would have dealed with all of the strong women and men without them seeing it coming. It wouldn't have given them time to react.**
Again, you cannot stay to the same line of thought, can you? First you say that Semirhage had no way of knowing how strong Rand's group would've been. Then I explain how she would've known at least that Rand was incredibly strong, and a woman he was with. Then, you ceede the point, but then say that it didn't make a difference. Then, I point out that it's the major difference -- she had knowledge of Rand's group; you're ignoring that. Now, you're saying she would've known that there were strong channelers present and dealt with them -- completely contradicting your previous assertions.
Again -- did Semirhage know that Rand's group was made of strong channelers, yes or no?
If no, please explain how this is with the evidence above.
If yes, please explain why she didn't think to bring more help to deal with these strong channelers.
**He is not the direct rebirth of LTT (therefore LTT in his head) and how would she know that he had recieved all of his talents? Seeing (and experiencing) is much better than hearing or assuming.**
What are you talking about?
Rand al'Thor is Lews Therin Telamon reborn. Lews Therin was the Dragon. Rand is Lews Therin reborn. Hence, the Dragon Reborn.
Same soul reborn, same strength. As Lanfear says:
**TITLE: Fires of Heaven, CHAPTER: Prologue - The First Sparks Fall
"He is Lews Therin Telamon reborn," Lanfear said just as softly, "and Lews Therin was as strong as any." Sammael absently rubbed the scar across his face; it had been Lews Therin who gave it to him. Three thousand years ago and more, well before the Breaking of the World, before the Great Lord was imprisoned, before so much, but Sammael never forgot.**
And, again, Semirhage did experience this -- at the Cleansing. You keep forgetting that or ignoring that.
**Yes, but she doesn't know how powerful. And assuming often gets you wrong answers, like you misjudge and think they would be weaker, for example.**
1. She knows Rand is as strong as Lews Therin -- all the Forsaken do.
2. She would've known there was at least one incredibly strong channeler with Rand's group.
You keep saying that Semirhage wouldn't have known that Rand's group had strong channelers -- yet from what she's experienced she would've known this. So, why do you keep saying she wouldn't have?
**No , I'm saying that she would have to guess their ability, instead of knowing their strength, and people make mistakes in guessing.**
And, again, this doesn't make any sense. She KNOWS Rand is an incredibly strong channeler, since he is Lews Therin reborn and Lews Therin was incredibly strong. She knows that an incredibly strong woman helped with the Cleansing. She doesn't need to know that Nynaeve can match Moghedien -- all she needs to know is that Rand has a Forsaken level channeler in his group, along with himself. You keep trying to shrug this off.
**Callandor, I bet you were on the debate team in high school.**
Nope. I've just been here for a while.
**Always doesn't always mean always.**
My point was that there wasn't any consistancy between them. Lord of Dawn was saying she was always confident and calm, then that she wasn't, then that she was. Is it one or the other? I know the answer, but they just can't seem to say it.
**Based upon what we have read about Semirhage and how she enjoys torturing people, I personally feel that she would be the type to enjoy collaring and torturing Rand.**
Torturing him, yes. Collaring him? Hell no. He's still a danger until that is done.
Kuma: 2005-11-20
I'm also of the opinion that Semirhage didn't intend to be captured. Whether or not she had contingency plans already made or was spinning them out behind that composure post-capture is unclear, but I think it's clear that she will try SOMETHING, be it escape, dissention or something else. She doesn't strike me as the kind to surrender or passively wait to be rescued.
To me, the strongest evidence that Semirhage didn't intend to be captured is 1) how near things came to turning bad, as per Nynaeve's assessment, and 2) the knowledge that she would likely be stilled or killed if she were taken. Overconfidence? Underestimation? Bad planning? Bad luck? I think all of them played a role in her capture, and I can't think of a single thing that she gains by allowing herself to be captured that offsets getting stilled or killed.
Ozymandias: 2005-11-20
wait a minute... did you just make that up, or is this actually out? Are you actually RJ incognito and are baiting us with this?
Lord of the Dawn: 2005-11-21
First of all, Callandor, are you just debating details, or do you believe in the Semirhage's Capture Was Fake theory. If you do believe in that theory, explain to me why Semirhage would only try to get herself captured, despite all of the risks, instead of actually attempting to capture Rand and if that fails, she has a back-up plan and can spread dissension.
Also, make sure you read all of the replies because you are still asking questions about things that have already been given answers to.
*** 1. That's a leap to just say she would've succeeded. She would've needed to get the bracelet on Rand, and again, just hand it to Rand and expect him to put it on? ***
Answered it already. Again, she had complete surprise. If her weave hadn't been unmasked, she could have been in the middle of a discussion when *BAM* she hits the Aes Sedai and Asha'aman with some inverted weaves and has Rand shielded or unconscious. She then gets the a'dam and collars Rand and the survivors. Seems pretty plausible to me. She didn't plan for that ter'angreal to foil her. Also explain how she would have got herself captured if her disguise hadn't been unmasked.
*** 2. Again, you're the one that said this was so important. If it was, who gives if the Seanchan get suspicious? Who cares? The Forsaken would have Rand. That's quite important, yes? So who cares if the Seanchan get a suspicious nature going -- the payoff would be well worth the ways of doing it. ***
Because it could have stopped the plan before it had been put in action. It would have led inquiries and that could foil everything. It also seems to me that if the ter'angreal hadn't disrupted her surprise, the plan would have worked.
*** Back up plan if what went wrong? ***
The capture.
*** If Semirhage is so ignorant of Seanchan culture, and how Tuon would act -- why would she even TRY to pull off such a stunt? ***
Because most of the people who she's dealing with probably know less about Seanchan manners than she - and they wouldn't be discussing for very long.
*** First you say she's always composed and calm. Then, you say she's not. Then, you say she is. Which is it? ***
Grrrrr... This is getting frustrating... People, including me, have answered this many times. That is a direct quote from Lews Therin. He does not see her all of the time. You can hardly be calm and composed for 100% of the time, maybe 99%. Her surprise showed that she must REALLY not have foreseen this because she rarely ever is not calm and composed.
*** Again, Rand used the Choedan Kal, WITH A WOMAN at the Cleansing. Ok? Semirhage was at the Cleansing. Being from the Age of Legends, and knowing about the Choedan Kal, she would know that anyone using the Choedan Kal has to be incredibly strong. Ok? Hence, she should have anticipated that any woman in Rand's group at the meeting would've been the one that used the Choedan Kal, and hence incredibly strong. ***
Ok, I see your point about the strong woman, but it wouldn't matter if she got the woman by surprise with inverted weaves. She is very strong, she could have split her weaving 6-10 ways and gotten all of Rand's party suddenly and without anyone suspecting. She would leave no time for any incredibly strong woman to react.
*** Again, you cannot stay to the same line of thought, can you? First you say that Semirhage had no way of knowing how strong Rand's group would've been. Then I explain how she would've known at least that Rand was incredibly strong, and a woman he was with. Then, you ceede the point, but then say that it didn't make a difference. Then, I point out that it's the major difference -- she had knowledge of Rand's group; you're ignoring that. Now, you're saying she would've known that there were strong channelers present and dealt with them -- completely contradicting your previous assertions. ***
1) Ok she knows Rand is strong and a woman too. As I said, if her plan had gone like she thought it would, that would not have really mattered.
2) I meant saying dealt with strong channelers not that she would know that but to make a point that even if they were strong, she still would have dealt with them had her plan gone the way it was supposed too.
*** You keep saying that Semirhage wouldn't have known that Rand's group had strong channelers -- yet from what she's experienced she would've known this. So, why do you keep saying she wouldn't have? ***
She knows about two strong channelers in his group. The rest she doesn't know how strong. She wouldn't have known the strength of the rest.
seriah: 2005-11-22
(my first post, be gentle)
I'm not sure how well my response will mesh, but here we go...
First, everyone seems (to me) to be going on the assumption that Semirhage was going there to do battle. Then basing the conclusions and theories on her "plans" on that assumption.
My simple idea is that maybe she was going there to do just as was agreed to with Rands negotiators, meet with him and discuss his proposal. Then strike at a later date. Obviously, she had prepared to take advantage if she could (the male a'dam give that away) but it is doubtful (to me) that she would have tried against a vastly superior force.
However, her illusion weave was broken...then Rand (through Lews Therin) recognized her and yelled her name. At that point, there was no chance of avoiding a battle.
It is very doubtful she planned on one of Rands escorts having the Ter'angreal to break her weave, and even more doubtful that she believed Rand would recognize her true form.
For the supposition of "she only threw a measly fireball" it was a FIREBALL, it took off Rands hand and would have probably resulted in his death if he had not recieved healing in fairly short order. The idea that she would not try to kill Rand because Moridin forbade it? pfft....
Really, shes one of the forsaken...she is going to do what she has to to survive and see what she can do afterwards. If killing Rand and everyone in the nearby 6 miles is what she had to do to survive (theoretically) then I'm betting she would have.
FraKcture: 2005-11-22
"Torturing him, yes. Collaring him? Hell no. He's still a danger until that is done. "
Are you forgetting that a collared male channeler gains some control over the link and in the end it is a battle of wills? Rand would be less of a danger if he were "safely shielded" than if he were collared. But the torture could be more personal if he were collared. It just seems right up Semirhage's alley to me.
haertchen: 2005-11-22
I believe things can be cleared up if we take a look at the actual sources used. I feel that Callandor is creating a discrepancy that doesn't exist, by virtue of misattributing the statements, and misinterpreting what is there. The irony is that the "contradiction" comes from within the books themselves, and thus should no person here should be held responsible for them; it is just our job to interpret them in the most plausible light; claiming contradiction and leaving just doesn't work.
Here is the first quote, the one claiming she is always calm:
Title – Lord of Chaos, Prologue – The First Message
"Semirhage raised her eyes from her stitchery, unblinking dark eyes in a smooth dark face, then put aside the needlework and stood gracefully. "He will come when he comes," she said calmly. She was always calm, just as she was always graceful. "If you do not want to wait, then go."
This is from a specific PoV; sorry, I forget whose. However, it is not the creater himself saying it.
The second is the KoD quote:
TITLE: Knife of Dreams, Chapter 27 - A Plain Wooden Box
"Abruptly no more than ten paces away, she ... flickered. For an instant she was taller than most men, garbed all in black with SURPRISE on her face, and though she still wore the veil, her head was covered with short-cut wavy black hair. Only an instant before the small woman returned, her step faltering as she let her white skirts fall, but another flicker and tall dark woman stood there, her face twisted in FURY behind the veil."
(Emphasis Lord of the Dawn's)
Thus we have two quotes, one which says that Semirhage is always calm and the other which says that she was furious, and generally not calm at all. How to reconcile this?
Well, there are two ways of doing it. The first is to do as Callandor does, and say that it proves she was acting the entire time. She looked furious? All an act to get captured. If one insists that both quotes are absolute gospel truth, then this is probably the only way out.
On the other hand, this could be an instance of what is known in literature as hyperbole. Hyperbole is defined in wikipedia as:
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A hyperbole, largely synonymous with exaggeration and overstatement, is a figure of speech in which statements are exaggerated or extravagant. It may be used due to strong feelings or is used to create a strong impression and is not meant to be taken literally. It gives greater emphasis. It is often used in poetry and is a literary device.
*************************************
Typically, the vast majority of absolute statements made about characters in a book are hyperbole, especially when they are made by other characters. RJ uses it extensively, especially in regards to the Aeil, Warders, etc. Combine this with the fact that this is a PoV, and all we have is somebody describing their impression of Semirage , probably exaggerating slightly. In this case, it actually means that the observer has never seen Semirhage loose her cool, even when it would have been normal to expect it.
If one takes this perspective (it's hyperbole) how do we then interpret the scene where Semirhage is captured? It's really, really easy, then. When her weave was disrupted, Semirhage got one of the biggest shocks of her life. She found herself unmasked in front of several very strong chanellers, with the element of surprise gone. (I'm afraid that I have to agree with Callandor that she knew he had strong channelers around him; she was probably counting on her own strength and the element of surprise to overwhelm him. Of course, she could still have underestimated just how strong---she only knew for certain he had *one* strong enough to handle the Choden Kal.) This was enough to overcome her legendary calm, temporarily. The fight happened and she was captured. By that point, though, she had collected herself again, and once again acted like she was in control.
This is all in accord with the quote about "always calm" because hyperbole has to have a kernel of truth to be effective. I think that we can read it that Semirhage does not take fright easily, doesn't panic when most people would, (LTT also notes: "she never lacked courage") and so her calm after she has been captured is easily explained in these terms. Also, it's important to note that she was never afraid; she looked angry, not scared. She may have had other emotions, but fear was not one of them, which matches all the quotes we have discussed.
Callandor: 2005-11-23
**First of all, Callandor, are you just debating details, or do you believe in the Semirhage's Capture Was Fake theory. If you do believe in that theory, explain to me why Semirhage would only try to get herself captured, despite all of the risks, instead of actually attempting to capture Rand and if that fails, she has a back-up plan and can spread dissension.**
I don't have a set opinion on exactly what were the reasons the meeting happened as it did. It's far too suspicious for me if she simply went intending to capture Rand, making me think right away that it was faked. But I also think it would be unwise to simply plan on getting captured.
**Answered it already. Again, she had complete surprise. If her weave hadn't been unmasked, she could have been in the middle of a discussion when *BAM* she hits the Aes Sedai and Asha'aman with some inverted weaves and has Rand shielded or unconscious. She then gets the a'dam and collars Rand and the survivors. Seems pretty plausible to me. She didn't plan for that ter'angreal to foil her. Also explain how she would have got herself captured if her disguise hadn't been unmasked.**
No, you didn't answer it. You wrote it off. Now, you finally have. Before you were just saying "Well, she was surprised." and were thinking that was an answer.
**Because it could have stopped the plan before it had been put in action. It would have led inquiries and that could foil everything. It also seems to me that if the ter'angreal hadn't disrupted her surprise, the plan would have worked.**
Semirhage taking ten or twenty damane all of a sudden would be suspicious -- but who would care? If someone asked questions, they'd be removed. If Rand's capture was that important, anything would be done to get it.
And, again, if you say Semirhage is so ignorant of Seanchan culture and how Tuon would acts, why would she even concieve of the capture?
**Grrrrr... This is getting frustrating... People, including me, have answered this many times. That is a direct quote from Lews Therin. He does not see her all of the time. You can hardly be calm and composed for 100% of the time, maybe 99%. Her surprise showed that she must REALLY not have foreseen this because she rarely ever is not calm and composed.**
What's frustrating is you changing your view whenever it suits you. Again, you said she was always calm, then said she wasn't, then said she was always calm. If she wasn't, then say that. If she was, then say that. Otherwise just say you misspoke.
**Ok, I see your point about the strong woman, but it wouldn't matter if she got the woman by surprise with inverted weaves. She is very strong, she could have split her weaving 6-10 ways and gotten all of Rand's party suddenly and without anyone suspecting. She would leave no time for any incredibly strong woman to react.**
But, again, you're stance was that Semirhage took the people she took because she didn't know how powerful the channelers were. You said this:
**Me: She still should've assumed any woman with Rand was a channeler.
You: Yes, but she doesn't know their strength. If she knew how strong they were, I doubt she would have stuck around.**
Semirhage would've had basic knowledge of what to expect going into this. She would've known that Rand is as strong as it can be considered, or basically that it made no difference, for a male channeler. She would've known there was at least one female channeler that was incredibly powerful. She would've known that the last time the Forsaken came upon Rand they got their ass handed to them completely, by strength and by what they had with them.
The most basic of thinkers, when offering an honor guard, would assume Rand would be taking the strongest, most powerful, and best prepared people he could. So, why would she confront Rand with what would obviously be a worse position?
Surprise? Yeah, but Semirhage alone cannot hold everyone, especially considering the strengths again, and as far as we know the a'dam cannot be used to make multiple links (two sul'dam's can't join together like two channelers by themselves can). So, why even try with what she had? If it was that important, who gives a crap who it tips off in Seanchan areas? Once Rand is had Semirhage could probably leave their command or even try to get back in as Anath or even try as someone new.
**1) Ok she knows Rand is strong and a woman too. As I said, if her plan had gone like she thought it would, that would not have really mattered.**
You're disregarding this way too fast.
**2) I meant saying dealt with strong channelers not that she would know that but to make a point that even if they were strong, she still would have dealt with them had her plan gone the way it was supposed too.**
Again, Semirhage couldn't hold Rand, Nynaeve, Cadsuane, Logain, etc. all at once. She just couldn't do it. It's doubtful even if Semirhage alone could hold just Rand.
**She knows about two strong channelers in his group. The rest she doesn't know how strong. She wouldn't have known the strength of the rest.**
Again, you're trying to make this out to less than it is.
She underestimated them, but knew how some of the group was worked out? Again, the most useless commander would've thought, "Rand's going to a place that isn't completely in his control, and the last time I came near him and his group we got a sound asskicking. He'll probably have his best with him." But you're saying that Semirhage just planned to do this basically all by herself?? If it was just her and Rand -- I could see it. Honor groups -- heck no. Lanfear isn't that arrogant.
**My simple idea is that maybe she was going there to do just as was agreed to with Rands negotiators, meet with him and discuss his proposal. Then strike at a later date. Obviously, she had prepared to take advantage if she could (the male a'dam give that away) but it is doubtful (to me) that she would have tried against a vastly superior force.**
That actually sounds quite good.
**It is very doubtful she planned on one of Rands escorts having the Ter'angreal to break her weave, and even more doubtful that she believed Rand would recognize her true form.**
That I don't believe. Semirhage seems to know that Rand has Lews Therin in his head from Lanfear's statements. She knew he was knowing things that Lews Therin knew. Her real identity would've easily been one of those.
**Are you forgetting that a collared male channeler gains some control over the link and in the end it is a battle of wills?**
No, that takes time to develop:
**TITLE: Shadow Rising, CHAPTER: 54 - Into the Palace
"So you discovered that little gem behind you," Moghedien said in a moment of precarious balance. Surprisingly, her voice was almost conversational. "I wonder how. you did that. It does not matter. Did you come to take it away? Perhaps to destroy it? You cannot destroy it. That is not metal, but a form of cuendillar. Even balefire cannot destroy cuendillar. And if you mean to use it, it does have . . . drawbacks, shall we say? Put the collar on a man who channels, and a woman wearing the bracelets can make him do whatever she wishes, true, but it will not stop him going mad, and there is a flow the other way, too. Eventually he will begin to be able to control you, too, so you end with a struggle at every hour. Not very palatable when he is going mad. Of course, you can pass the bracelets around, so no one has too much exposure, but that does mean trusting someone else with him. Men are always so good at violence; they make wonderful weapons. Or two women can each wear one bracelet, if you have someone you trust enough; that slows the seepage considerably, I understand, but it also lessens your control, even if you work in perfect unison. Eventually, you will find yourselves in a struggle for control with him, each of you needing him to remove your bracelet as surely as he needs you to remove the collar." She tilted her head, lifted a quizzical eyebrow. "You are following this, I trust? Controlling Lews Therin-Rand al'Thor as he is called now- would be most useful, but is it worth the price? You can see why I have left the collar and bracelets where they are."**
Every mention of the control going the other way has the "eventually" with it. It's unlikely that it was just immediately that it would be a struggle.
Lord of the Dawn: 2005-11-24
*** Semirhage taking ten or twenty damane all of a sudden would be suspicious -- but who would care? If someone asked questions, they'd be removed. If Rand's capture was that important, anything would be done to get it.
And, again, if you say Semirhage is so ignorant of Seanchan culture and how Tuon would acts, why would she even concieve of the capture? ***
She wouldn't take more because if her plan had gone like it was supposed to, she wouldn't need anymore. And she would conceive of the capture because she thought she could slip away and win because of the element of surprise.
*** What's frustrating is you changing your view whenever it suits you. Again, you said she was always calm, then said she wasn't, then said she was always calm. If she wasn't, then say that. If she was, then say that. Otherwise just say you misspoke. ***
Ok, I'll try to clear this up. What I said first of all was from a quote. I didn't mean it literally and I even said that "the quote says that she was always calm". Also see haertchen's new post, he explains hyperbole. Then, in the past couple posts, have tried to explain that that was a quote and that Mesaana doesn't see Semi all of the time (I realized that quote is from Mesaana.) I hope that clears it up. I've not been changing my view, I just quoted a quote and then explained that she acting like that with fury and rage is a measure of her extreme surprise. You cannot be completely calm all of the time, and characters are not gods so they do not know when Semi gets surprised or if she does.
*** But, again, you're stance was that Semirhage took the people she took because she didn't know how powerful the channelers were. You said this:
**Me: She still should've assumed any woman with Rand was a channeler.
You: Yes, but she doesn't know their strength. If she knew how strong they were, I doubt she would have stuck around.** ***
Ok, I'll clear this up too. Sorry about the mix up, when I said stuck around, it was my first reply and then I realized that that would be wrong. I didn't say anything because I thought nobody had noticed but in the last couple posts I changed my opinion. My view now and for the last couple posts is that Semi did underestimate some of the channelers, which did sort of help with the failing of her plan, but she took the people she took a tiny bit because of underestimation but mostly because she could've pulled it off, IMO, with the people she had. It was quite a good plan.
*** Surprise? Yeah, but Semirhage alone cannot hold everyone, especially considering the strengths again, and as far as we know the a'dam cannot be used to make multiple links (two sul'dam's can't join together like two channelers by themselves can). So, why even try with what she had? If it was that important, who gives a crap who it tips off in Seanchan areas? Once Rand is had Semirhage could probably leave their command or even try to get back in as Anath or even try as someone new. ***
She could just kill them. Saves energy for shielding Rand. She doesn't need to save anyone else.
*** You're disregarding this way too fast. ***
Well, even Nyn couldn't stop one of Semi's inverted killing tricks with the element of surprise.
*** Again, Semirhage couldn't hold Rand, Nynaeve, Cadsuane, Logain, etc. all at once. She just couldn't do it. It's doubtful even if Semirhage alone could hold just Rand. ***
Then kill them. Knock Rand unconscious or shield him while he was surprised. With the sul'dams' help, she could've shielded Rand while unconscious, grabbed the a'dam, snapped it on Rand and any survivors of the initial killing that were perhaps knocked out.
Perhaps she and the sul'dam had a plan worked out before so that when she gave a signal they would all attack.
Kuma: 2005-11-25
**Again, Semirhage couldn't hold Rand, Nynaeve, Cadsuane, Logain, etc. all at once. She just couldn't do it. It's doubtful even if Semirhage alone could hold just Rand.** --Callandor
---------------
I think that you're too quickly assuming that by "dealt with," he means "shielded." How about a scenario in which there's no disruption of the illusory disguise or knowledge of a female channeling via the ter'angreal, in which all the main channelers in Rand's party are focused on the damane/sul'dam pairs and then "Tuon" steps up close enough to spin seven inverted webs of Compulsion? Or how about inverted versions of that pain-inducing weave she was using to torture Cabriana several books ago? Six thin, simultaneous bars of inverted Balefire and then six damane spinning a shield for Rand? I think a hit with those (or any of a number of other nasty weaves potentially in Semirhage's arsenal) and Rand's party would have been almost completely disrupted, even if they managed to hold onto the Power--all without Semirhage having to waste any of her own strength on a shield. After that, it's a simple matter of letting the damane spin shields/clean up, and then using the contents of a plain wooden box to seal the deal.
Not a bad plan, and reasonably workable save one thing: Semirhage would be hanging all of that on the sure knowledge that she would have total suprise--sounds like the mistake of a general of "average" abilities to me. Also remember that not even the sul'dam knew she wasn't Tuon. She clearly wasn't planning on open confrontation, and she very likely wouldn't want to reveal her true nature to the sul'dam and damane, so something inverted, nasty and not externally apparent would have almost certainly been her plan. That stray fireball getting openly channeled in front of the Seanchan was yet another sign of just how far wrong her plans had gone. Compulsion or some other mentally-disrupting/incapacitating weave would have been much more effective on unsuspecting victims.
In addition, aside from my earlier statements about how close things were for Rand and his friends, and no trade-off worth getting killed or stilled for Semirhage, if she had truly been going for self-capture, it's too big of a loss to let your enemy know you have something like the male a'dam in your possession. Why even bring it, knowing that it'll fall into the hands of an enemy if your plan succeeds? So he can slap it on Taim? Demandred or another Forsaken? I don't think so.
To me, it's clear that she was confident of her plan of capturing Rand working, and instead Semirhage got jumped, and that's all there is to it. Will she try to do nasty stuff from the inside? You bet, but no way was that her original plan.
Anubis: 2005-11-25
I've planned a few "black ops" in my day, most involving theft.... but anywhoo.
It is quite clear that most of you have never done anything dangerous in your lives....
You dont walk into a dangerous situation with a solid plan that you are going to stick to no matter what. you walk in, and each step of the way you keep your eyes open and your head down and you gather information. then if the opportunity presents itself, you strike.
Sure, Semerhage may not have been planning to capture Rand right at that very moment, but she was at the very least doing recon, and she brought enough channelers to give her time to flee if Rand tried to double cross who he thought was Tuon.
Lets put it this way. If Semerhage had walked in, and Rand had had Callandor in his belt (person or sword, either is enough of a nuiscance :P) she wouldnt have said "oh gee, well the plan is to capture Rand, here goes" she would have held back and waited for a better moment to strike.
Callandor: 2005-11-25
**If one takes this perspective (it's hyperbole) how do we then interpret the scene where Semirhage is captured? It's really, really easy, then. When her weave was disrupted, Semirhage got one of the biggest shocks of her life.**
No, all one has to do it accept that there was a contradiction. It's not that hard. The point is that the usage of the two quotes kept being flip-flopped again and again. First she was always calm, then not always calm, then always calm.
Semirhage got a shock. That's not the point. The point is to say that correctly, not keep misspeaking.
**(I'm afraid that I have to agree with Callandor that she knew he had strong channelers around him; she was probably counting on her own strength and the element of surprise to overwhelm him. Of course, she could still have underestimated just how strong---she only knew for certain he had *one* strong enough to handle the Choden Kal.)**
See, this is still what I do not get.
People now (after needing to be beaten over the head with the fact) agree that Semirhage knew Rand had at least ONE strong channeler in his group. Yet, they still speak of misjudgement -- again after being cleared that there is knowledge to be had here, not just a blind guess.
Semirhage could not do this all on her own as people seem to be saying. Yeah, she could probably surprise them and hold them for a few minutes -- but she allowed Rand to bring an honor guard, knew Rand was as strong if not knew he was stronger than herself, and knew he had at least one incredibly strong channeler that he would more than likely bring, and others. She would have to be a blind moron not to ASSUME that everyone in Rand's group would be a channeler, and the strongest he had. She would've known the comparitive strengths of Rand, and one other.
You have to explain how she would either ignore all of this common sense and knowledge -- or how she could think to do this on her own in a far weaker position, and not take more forces. Arrogance doesn't cut it.
Callandor: 2005-11-25
**She wouldn't take more because if her plan had gone like it was supposed to, she wouldn't need anymore. And she would conceive of the capture because she thought she could slip away and win because of the element of surprise.**
Completely ignoring your previous comments?
You said she was ignorant of Seanchan culture and Tuon's habits. So, why would she try to pretend to be her?
And I've continually disagreed with your assertion that she wouldn't need anymore forces -- again, she knew bare basics of Rand's group and even the most moronic commanders would've planned for the worst. You're saying Semirhage didn't.
**My view now and for the last couple posts is that Semi did underestimate some of the channelers, which did sort of help with the failing of her plan, but she took the people she took a tiny bit because of underestimation but mostly because she could've pulled it off, IMO, with the people she had. It was quite a good plan.**
But -- AGAIN -- she knew Rand was as strong as her if not stronger. She knew there was an incredibly powerful female channeler in Rand's group, and he would almost assuredly take the strongest people he had along to this meeting.
So why would she completely ignore any caution? Again, it's doubtful she could've even held Rand on her own for any amount of time, let alone many other channelers all strong.
Also, if you notice, she didn't try to kill anyone else -- just Rand. So, what's going on here?
**Then kill them. Knock Rand unconscious or shield him while he was surprised. With the sul'dams' help, she could've shielded Rand while unconscious, grabbed the a'dam, snapped it on Rand and any survivors of the initial killing that were perhaps knocked out.**
Then why didn't she?! Why if she was planning on killing everyone but Rand -- did she just attack Rand?
Forget trying to treat with Rand. She wants to capture him, and plans on killing everyone -- why not attack right away? Why use weaker forces, then again? If she was so unconcerned about attacking right in front of Rand, killing all of his group, why not have 50 other damane around or even 10 more to make it a for sure success? Rand's important enough, right?
**I think a hit with those (or any of a number of other nasty weaves potentially in Semirhage's arsenal) and Rand's party would have been almost completely disrupted, even if they managed to hold onto the Power--all without Semirhage having to waste any of her own strength on a shield. After that, it's a simple matter of letting the damane spin shields/clean up, and then using the contents of a plain wooden box to seal the deal.**
1. If they were going to do that, why wait at all?
2. If they were planning to attack right away, why not bring more forces?
**She clearly wasn't planning on open confrontation, and she very likely wouldn't want to reveal her true nature to the sul'dam and damane, so something inverted, nasty and not externally apparent would have almost certainly been her plan.**
Why bring them if they're brought just for decaration??
haertchen: 2005-11-25
"Yeah, she could probably surprise them and hold them for a few minutes."
A few minutes is all she needed. She did have the collars, after all. We have no idea just how much she wanted to "parade them in" as described earlier, or not, but she certainly wouldn't have tried to hold them permanently on her own.
I'm personally guessing that her plan relied mostly on the element of surprise, which she had every reason for believing she should have. (That's the overconfidence that, I think, really killed her. Inverted weaves; masking the ability to channel; those were here aces in the hole.) Remember that a weak channeler can shield a stronger channeler, as long as the shield comes up unexpectedly.
I'll admit that the Ashaman give me pause. I'm not sure how Semirhage thought she could really hold them. (Isn't it hard for women to hold men, in terms of shear strength?) Perhaps she meant to somehow collar just one of them and use him to get the rest...
In any case, at this point I'm pretty clear that what happened isn't what Semirhage had planned, and that makes the capture being deliberate that much less likely.
JakOShadows: 2005-11-27
*You have to explain how she would either ignore all of this common sense and knowledge -- or how she could think to do this on her own in a far weaker position, and not take more forces. Arrogance doesn't cut it. *
Callandor, have you considered that Semirhage didn't see all of the channelers? For the most part, the forsaken attacked from different angles, so they wouldn't have seen all the different groups. So she would have been surprised at the numbers of strong channelers he had, even if she did know he had one or two really strong channelers. And she also had no idea of the ter'angreal Nyn and Cad were wearing. It's not the fact that they were so strong, but that they hid their ability. If, as Anubis said, she kept her eyes open, she would have one of the sul'dam or damane warn her that they holding saidar. But they couldn't tell, so she was surprised by the fact that her MoM weave didn't hold and the fact that they were holding saidar. Those are two fairly large surprises and could mess up her plan, even if she did have enough people. I see what your saying Callandor, and I know she isn't a fool, but everything is as intuitively obvious to her as it is to us. That's what everyone is trying to convey.
FraKcture: 2005-11-29
"Every mention of the control going the other way has the 'eventually' with it. It's unlikely that it was just immediately that it would be a struggle."
I think it's getting a bit off-topic to continue this part of the discussion, but for the record, we do not know how long the "eventually" will take. If it's based upon strength in the OP, it may not take long at all for Rand.
At this point, after all this discussion, I like Anubis' suggestion that Semirhage may have just been doing recon as the most plausible solution. (And if someone suggested this before Anubis - my apologies.) Or alternately (and equally plausible), there may be a plan that she is setting in motion. It just doesn't make sense to me for Semi to plan to get herself captured. But Callandor (and others) are right in that if the plan was to capture Rand, it is unreasonable to think that she would have brought just enough fire power to get the job done. I think there must have been some other plan in the works - perhaps something we have missed. So basically Semirhage may not have been planning for an open confrontation with Rand at this meeting. Rand wanted to discuss a truce. Perhaps she was simply going to agree to the truce and then take advantage when the time / opportunity came. Counterpoint : So why the a'dam? Yeah, that's bugging me. So I'm still not 100% sure where I stand on this. It could very well be that they are simply on hand in case an opportunity presents itself.
I agree with haertchen that it seems pretty clear that things did not go the way that Semirhage planned.
Hopefully I will have book 11 back soon so that I can do my first re-read. This is obviously an important event since it seems to tie-in to Min's severed hand (and white hot iron?) viewing for Rand.
Anubis: 2005-11-29
I think several things are being ignored.
1. Semerhage just killed the entire Seanchan royal family. She DOES NOT fear modern channelers in the slightest. She has nothing but contempt for their meager abilities.
2. Semerhage is ordered to create chaos. Lets say the meeting went off completely without a hitch. They buy it completely. Semerhage, pretending to be Tuon sparks a huge war between Rand and the Seanchan. Chaos achieved.
3. Nynaeve said herself that dispite them knowing in advance it was not Tuon, it was a close thing. She seems to believe that had it not been for Cadsuanes ter'angreal, then the outcome could have easily been very different. She is afraid, and several of Rands party are seriously wounded.
I can easily believe that Semerhage could have pulled it off if it had not been for Cadsuane, it would have been a gamble, but one well worth the risk.
Kuma: 2005-11-29
**1. If they were going to do that, why wait at all?
2. If they were planning to attack right away, why not bring more forces?**
1) It would be easy for Semirhage to assume that those first few minutes of the meeting would be the time where Rand and his party would be the most alert--like strange cats meeting, those first moments are the most tense. If guile and catching her opponent off-guard were her plan (not to mention continuting to conceal her identity from the sul'dam/damane), then it would only make sense to proceed with a sham of negotiations to distract/lull Rand and the others, perhaps give herself time to assess the strengths of her enemies to decide what course to take. A prearraged signal to the sul'dam timed with her covert attack right at a moment in the negotiations when she's goaded Rand/his party to anger/distraction/etc and Rand's party would've been in serious trouble.
2) There are plenty of signs that she wans't planning on attacking right away. The first one you've already pointed out--she didn't bring more forces. Second, if she had wanted to attack right away, why would she have left the a'dam in the house? The sul'dam are quite capable of slapping the things on people during moments of surprise (a la Egwene). Third, her shouting to the sul'dam to shield the party is another sign that she wasn't planning to attack immediately. She's far too calculating, and almost certainly had a prearranged signal for the sul'dam to take a predetermined set of actions. A spoken command would have ruined her one big advantage--surprise. And moreover, if she had been planning to hit Rand immediately while he wasn't looking, why did she go in disguise herself? Why wouldn't she have recruited and slapped the Tuon disguise on an easily disposable Darkfriend to accompany the sul'dam, and stepped through the gateway as Annath, then discretely made herself invisible and snuck off to some vantage where she could see Rand's party approach and attack them while they stared holes in the sul'dam/Damane and a fake Tuon?
What I'm saying is that there's too many little things that speak to her intentions of NOT immediately attacking in open confrontation. She clearly couldn't hope to overpower his group. She needed to maximize her chances of catching Rand and his crew in a moment when they were least wary, and right at the outset would clearly NOT be that time. Negotiating also gave her a chance to pull out and escape without ever having confrontation at all, if she decided that she couldn't pull it off--she just had to keep playing Tuon and "end the audience" in a fabricated huff or with the promise of a later meeting when she could use her newly gathered info on Rand's assets. And also, there are other easily seen plans that would allow her much greater advantage if she had been planning on immediate surprise attack.
**Why bring them if they're brought just for decaration?? **
Because if she wanted to preserve her disguise to the sul'dam, she would have needed the damane to shield people or do any other overt channeling. Revealing herself as marath'damane would have almost certainly cost Semirhage the control of the sul'dam. In fact, their shock at both her disguise flicker and her fireball may have been the reason that Rand's party didn't take more injury from the damane.
Beyond that, if you're going to do battle--even a covert and sneaky one--you'd be insane not to bring all the firepower you can without giving away your intentions. The damane might have even been her escape smokescreen. Even an "average" general is going to make contingency plans for escape. Ordering shields and fireballing Rand might have just been to keep him busy while she spun a gateway for escape, only she got shielded before she could get away. Then again, perhpas not. We don't really know because we were in Rand's POV and he got knocked down, but I doubt she would have stuck around long after having been surprised, exposed and confronted with a superior force.
What I'm basically saying that there's plenty of reason to have the sul'dam and damane there besides just appearances. I'm sure that others can probably think of reasons that I didn't list.
Paddy: 2005-11-30
I'm leaning towards her capture was. Semirhage must know some pretty nasty weaves to use against people. So why in the crucial moment does she only send a fireball? She could have sent Deathgates, Blossoms of Fire, Arrows of Fire, or any number of weaves that the people in Randland have yet to discover yet.
Kuma: 2005-12-01
**I'm leaning towards her capture was. Semirhage must know some pretty nasty weaves to use against people. So why in the crucial moment does she only send a fireball?**
If her goal was to capture Rand (either out of fear of Moridin or for her own reasons) then she wouldn't want to kill him if she could help it. Maiming him would be no problem, as she could fix him right up as soon as she had him all under control. Alternately, as I suggested before, the fireball could have been nothing more than a distraction (she would have likely assumed that LTT reborn could deal with a simple fireball) so that she could escape (possibly to try capturing him again later). The problem is that when Rand went down, we missed the rest of the fight and the actions of everyone that might have shed more light on her true intentions. Again, I think that her openly channeling at all was a sign of how far wrong her plans had been knocked off course by Cadsuane's ter'angreal. In a moment of extreme duress, anybody can make a miscalculation--even one of the Forsaken.
haertchen: 2005-12-01
"I'm leaning towards her capture was. Semirhage must know some pretty nasty weaves to use against people. So why in the crucial moment does she only send a fireball? She could have sent Deathgates, Blossoms of Fire, Arrows of Fire, or any number of weaves that the people in Randland have yet to discover yet."
Time and collateral damage, Paddy. She wasn't prepared to do something if (as we suppose) her unmasking took her by surprise. And she wouldn't want to do something too deadly---it would kill her too.
Saidar Haran: 2005-12-01
This point was brought up a while ago and not addressed: Someone said that Semi knew Rand had a powerful women channeler because she could use the Choedan Kal. THIS WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MAKE HER WARY-at some point, Cadsuane says that Moiraine could have used it, and she is far below Forsaken strength so Semi would not have known for sure that Rand had a Forsaken strength female.
JakOShadows: 2005-12-01
She's not supposed to kill Rand. And plus, I don't think she had any weaves prepared, so her first initial reaction would be to do something simple. Anytime we see a complicated weave there is time to think of the weave, and this obviously caught her by surprise.
Lord of the Dawn: 2005-12-01
Actually, I think that Semi making a fake alliance to spread chaos is a very good idea. She could've either made the deal and spread chaos, or if she found an opportunity capture Rand and kill his group, or if on the extremely odd chance she was caught, she'd have a rescue plan. That would explain why she didn't bring a lot more people because she was basically planning on making the deal and spreading chaos but maybe capture/kill if the chance presented itself. Perhaps the a'dam were part of that "deal" plot to spread maximum chaos.
*** Completely ignoring your previous comments?
You said she was ignorant of Seanchan culture and Tuon's habits. So, why would she try to pretend to be her?
And I've continually disagreed with your assertion that she wouldn't need anymore forces -- again, she knew bare basics of Rand's group and even the most moronic commanders would've planned for the worst. You're saying Semirhage didn't. ***
Yes Semi is ignorant of Seanchan culture and probably could not have fooled any of the High Blood or any other Blood or Seanchan for that matter. However Semi was going up against some people who probably knew a lot less about Seanchan ways than her. Enough to fool or distract while she captured/killed people.
*** Then why didn't she?! Why if she was planning on killing everyone but Rand -- did she just attack Rand? ***
Think. Her plan was ruined. She would have been able to kill them only by surprise. She lost her surprise. The most important person left is Rand. In a desperate attempt to perhaps break the group by taking out the most important person, she fired off the first thing that came into her head - a fireball. It makes sense because how would you feel at a time like that:
1) You're whole plan that you've probably been working on for a long time is suddenly ruined.
2) You don't know what happened
3) You've been unmasked in front of at least 2 very strong channelers with probably more as well. You can't handle that many without the element of surprise.
4) Rand shouts out "Semirhage" and they're all starting to attack.
I would say that that is circumstance enought for even Semi to be a bit discomposed. She did the first thing she could and naturally it was a fireball which is usually the first thing Channelers are taught.
*** 1. If they were going to do that, why wait at all?
2. If they were planning to attack right away, why not bring more forces? ***
1) Come on! She was just walking up to them when her weave broke. She was at least going to wait to attack until they were distracted making discussions.
2) Because she wouldn't need that many if she saw an opportunity to attack and if she was going to make a deal because she didn't find an opportunity, she wouldn't need to fight at all.
Callandor: 2005-12-01
**A few minutes is all she needed. She did have the collars, after all. We have no idea just how much she wanted to "parade them in" as described earlier, or not, but she certainly wouldn't have tried to hold them permanently on her own.**
Yeah, she had the collars -- back in the house and not in her posession at the time.
**Remember that a weak channeler can shield a stronger channeler, as long as the shield comes up unexpectedly.**
Yes, but a stronger person can break through a shield easier. In case you missed it, Rand broke through a shield that three Aes Sedai were holding. Rand even thinks of this for a moment:
**TITLE: Lord of Chaos, CHAPTER: 51 - The Taking
The shield sliding between him and the True Source was like the closing of a sluice gate; the flow of saidin vanished, leaving only the filthy residue of the taint. Beside that, the air seeming to turn solid around him from his ankles to his head was as nothing. That shield made his eyes bulge; it was impossible. No three women could block him from the Source once he had taken hold of saidin, not unless they were as strong as Semirhage or Mesaana or.... He reached for the Source, battered at that invisible stone wall, harder, harder. Lews Therin was snarling like a beast, battering, clawing frantically. One of them had to be able to reach saidin; one of them had to be able to break a buffer held by only three.**
Rand was holding saidin at the time of course, but it speaks volumes about how much capability you think Semirhage alone could have a holding Rand alone -- and then everyone else.
**(Isn't it hard for women to hold men, in terms of shear strength?)**
It's harder to hold someone who is stronger than you. Men generally being stronger than women, makes it harder to hold, yes.
**Callandor, have you considered that Semirhage didn't see all of the channelers? For the most part, the forsaken attacked from different angles, so they wouldn't have seen all the different groups. So she would have been surprised at the numbers of strong channelers he had, even if she did know he had one or two really strong channelers.**
But she told Rand he could have an honor guard! She knew he was strong, she knew there was another strong woman in his group, and should've assumed any person in his group was a channeler as strong as he could find. To assume otherwise is being a complete moron.
If you mean the Cleansing, I've made it explicit about how she would've known FOR SURE about Rand, and one female channeler. More channelers? Extra weight added in. Point is she had knowledge of what she was going up against -- others were saying she had none.
**And she also had no idea of the ter'angreal Nyn and Cad were wearing.**
Did I say anything about the ter'angreal? No.
**I think it's getting a bit off-topic to continue this part of the discussion, but for the record, we do not know how long the "eventually" will take. If it's based upon strength in the OP, it may not take long at all for Rand.**
Yeah, and it's completely possible it's based on Rand's hair color. What's your point? We don't know how long it would take -- but we know it is not immediately. That's the point. Doesn't matter how long it takes, it's not going to be immediately.
**1. Semerhage just killed the entire Seanchan royal family. She DOES NOT fear modern channelers in the slightest. She has nothing but contempt for their meager abilities**
Rand isn't meager in his ability, and Semirhage knows this. She would've known how difficult (easy) it would be to get to the Empress.
**I can easily believe that Semerhage could have pulled it off if it had not been for Cadsuane, it would have been a gamble, but one well worth the risk.**
But again, if it was worth the risk, why didn't she make the odds more favorable?
**1) It would be easy for Semirhage to assume that those first few minutes of the meeting would be the time where Rand and his party would be the most alert--like strange cats meeting, those first moments are the most tense.**
Who cares? She's there for Rand, and has her "hidden weapons." Why wait?
**2) There are plenty of signs that she wans't planning on attacking right away. The first one you've already pointed out--she didn't bring more forces. Second, if she had wanted to attack right away, why would she have left the a'dam in the house? The sul'dam are quite capable of slapping the things on people during moments of surprise (a la Egwene). Third, her shouting to the sul'dam to shield the party is another sign that she wasn't planning to attack immediately. She's far too calculating, and almost certainly had a prearranged signal for the sul'dam to take a predetermined set of actions. A spoken command would have ruined her one big advantage--surprise. And moreover, if she had been planning to hit Rand immediately while he wasn't looking, why did she go in disguise herself?**
All your questions are exactly what I'm asking, Kuma. If she wasn't going to attack, why plan on attacking? Why throw a fireball (if anyting, why that?!)? Why bring the a'dam? Why leave them in the house? Why bring the sul'dam? Why even pose as Tuon, if she's ignorant of Tuon's actions and Seanchan culture?
**Because if she wanted to preserve her disguise to the sul'dam, she would have needed the damane to shield people or do any other overt channeling. Revealing herself as marath'damane would have almost certainly cost Semirhage the control of the sul'dam. In fact, their shock at both her disguise flicker and her fireball may have been the reason that Rand's party didn't take more injury from the damane.**
But Semirhage has her inverted weaves, remember? She can do all these hidden attacks -- so why bother?
And, you're not answering my question. If Semirhage was NOT planning to attack, why bring the sul'dam? Why bring the a'dam? Why bring those useless decorations, if she was not planning to attack?
**Beyond that, if you're going to do battle--even a covert and sneaky one--you'd be insane not to bring all the firepower you can without giving away your intentions.**
EXACTLY!!!! That's exactly what I've been saying, Kuma.
**Ordering shields and fireballing Rand might have just been to keep him busy while she spun a gateway for escape, only she got shielded before she could get away.**
But why was it a close conflict, if it was resolved so soon after the incidents we saw? If it was just, "Shield 'em!" *Fireball*, captured, how's that a close call?
**What I'm basically saying that there's plenty of reason to have the sul'dam and damane there besides just appearances. I'm sure that others can probably think of reasons that I didn't list.**
You haven't done anything but dodge the question.
IF Semirhage was NOT planning on attack, why take damane which are used primarily as weapons?
And as I have said, and you agreed on as well, if she was planning to attack why didn't she bring more forces?
Callandor: 2005-12-02
**Perhaps the a'dam were part of that "deal" plot to spread maximum chaos.**
How?
**Yes Semi is ignorant of Seanchan culture and probably could not have fooled any of the High Blood or any other Blood or Seanchan for that matter. However Semi was going up against some people who probably knew a lot less about Seanchan ways than her. Enough to fool or distract while she captured/killed people.**
She's good enough to command Seanchan forces, and thought herself good enough to do it in the fist place -- yet she's only just good enough to pressumably pass for Rand.
You continually try to take situations both ways. It's getting tiring.
**Think. Her plan was ruined. She would have been able to kill them only by surprise. She lost her surprise. The most important person left is Rand. In a desperate attempt to perhaps break the group by taking out the most important person, she fired off the first thing that came into her head - a fireball.**
How is this thinking?
The Forsaken are banned from killing Rand. Semirhage's entire plan according to you was to capture Rand -- not kill him.
**3) You've been unmasked in front of at least 2 very strong channelers with probably more as well. You can't handle that many without the element of surprise.**
Can't handle that many even with surprise.
**I would say that that is circumstance enought for even Semi to be a bit discomposed. She did the first thing she could and naturally it was a fireball which is usually the first thing Channelers are taught.**
Ah. Of course. She apparently had all these hidden weaves, Compulsion, shields, had the most dangerous of the dangerous all ready to take out Rand's followers -- yet she thinks "Screw that!" and attacks RAND? Are you kidding me?
**1) Come on! She was just walking up to them when her weave broke. She was at least going to wait to attack until they were distracted making discussions.**
AGAIN! If she was going to attack, why didn't she bring more forces?
You're using way too many contradictions in your logic here, and stretching capabilities way beyond measure.
Zarul Argia: 2005-12-02
I pretty much agree with Lord of the Dawn, however, I don't think Semirhage had negotiations in deck of cards. In my opinion she was looking to either kill Rand or harness him with the male a'dam. But the fact that she had planned for the possibilty of capture definetly does enter the picture. As cautious as Semirhage is I would be surprised if she hadn't at least rudimentally planned for ever scenario she could think up. Her only mistake was under estimating the number of Rand's company and the equipment they had, because, lets face it, without Cadsuane's Ter'angreal Semirhage may well have succeeded in finishing Rand.
clarkkd: 2005-12-03
Have to go with NOT FAKE and Semirhage was going to strike during negeotiating (spelling yuck).
All Semirhage had to do was get a hold of Rand and hold him hostage, it would not have mattered who Rand brought with him.
Kuma: 2005-12-05
**Who cares? She's there for Rand, and has her "hidden weapons." Why wait?**
Plenty of reasons--not the least of which is that her main advantage is SURPRISE. If you know someone is going to be eyeing you like a hawk upon meeting you and you want to catch them when they're off-guard, then immediate attack is counterproductive to your own goals (ie. very stupid).
**All your questions are exactly what I'm asking, Kuma. If she wasn't going to attack, why plan on attacking?**
Let me make one thing abundantly clear, Callandor, because it bears on much of the rest of your commentary: I think that Semirhage WAS planning on attacking, just not IMMEDIATELY. If you can't grasp that distinction, then we're going to have a very hard time continuing this discussion. I was asking all of those questions under the qualifier of “if she had wanted to attack right away,†and am presenting them as evidence that she DIDN'T want to attack right away. She didn't bring more forces because that would have ruined her disguise and lessened her chances of capturing Rand. She didn't bring the a'dam to the field because she wasn't going to use them right away. She used a verbal command to the sul'dam because her plan (to deceive, lull, then attack and surprise-capture) had been disrupted. She posed as Tuon because she had to get close enough to hit the entourage with inverted weaves and to have control of the damane for overt channeling. And clearly, (although it's fairly irrelevant to my point), Semirhage can't be completely ignorant of Seanchan behavior, else she'd never have been able to convince the sul'dam to accompany her. Really—how would Rand and his party know the mannerisms of the Empress's heir? But I digress...
**But Semirhage has her inverted weaves, remember? She can do all these hidden attacks -- so why bother?**
Because there has to be some explanation for the sul'dam as to why the channelers in Rand's party aren't channeling at them. However Semirhage decided to neutralize all of the channelers in Rand's party, during that ugly moment of surprise, the damane are going to be spinning shields for anyone they can until the a'dam can be retrieved and snapped in place. No matter what she did, Semirhage could not explain away the disruption of Rand's party for that length of time without the damane making shields (for Rand if nobody else) without ruining her disguise as Tuon—or at least letting them in on the fact that she could channel, costing her control of the sul'dam.
**EXACTLY!!!! That's exactly what I've been saying, Kuma.**
We might have been saying similar words, Callandor, but there's a fine distinction that makes all the difference in the world. I was saying in answer to your “just decoration†comment that by taking the sul'dam/damane, Semirhage WAS taking all the firepower that she could WITHOUT GIVING AWAY HER INTENTIONS. I was NOT suggesting that she should have brought more if she was planning to fight—I'm saying that she DID take all she could in order to fight while using her surprise with maximum efficacy.
**But why was it a close conflict, if it was resolved so soon after the incidents we saw? If it was just, "Shield 'em!" *Fireball*, captured, how's that a close call?**
It was a close conflict because if Cadsuane's ter'angreal hadn't exposed her, Semirhage's plan to get close and surprise Rand's crew stood very good chances of going off without a hitch, leaving the whole lot of them dead or on leashes, save Min, who wouldn't need one. Surely you don't believe that Nynaeve's feelings about it being a near-miss were limited to just the power-battle? She was just as surprised as everyone else that Tuon was really Semirhage and surely she would have been taking into consideration just how close some nefarious plan had come to catching them all off-guard.
As for, "Shield 'em!" *Fireball*, captured—not only was that all qualified with a “might†and a statement that we don't know what happened due to POV problems, it's not even the reason the conflict was a close call.
**You haven't done anything but dodge the question.
IF Semirhage was NOT planning on attack, why take damane which are used primarily as weapons?**
Dodge? I've done nothing of the sort, sir, and won't take such an accusation sitting down. How's this for straightforward? Semirhage set terms that she knew Rand would agree to in order for the meeting to take place, including retainers for both leaders. She needed to look like Tuon for Rand and his party (complete with accompanying sul'dam as per the terms of the meeting) in order to get close. She needed their presence to draw the attention of Rand's channelers in order to make her covert attack effectively. She needed their help if she intended to capture Rand and some of the members of his party. She needed their strength to fight or serve as a smokescreen for her escape if things went bad. The fact that they're primarily used as weapons is a negligible and irrelevant point—they made up the accompanying retinue, they can channel and draw focus away from her own attack, they can spin shields, they could serve as weapons or cover as needed. Period, end of story. Clearly, she meant to fight—JUST NOT IN OPEN CONFRONTATION.
To summarize, Callandor: the plan that I've theorized for Semirhage (deceive, lull/distract, covert attack and capture) fits all the known facts, hinges ENTIRELY on guile and surprise rather than brute force, and all of her actions (placement of a'dam, bringing the damane, disguising herself as Tuon, etc) are accounted for toward those ends. Finally, if you've got evidence against that plan—from the books—then by all means point us to it, but please don't give us another round of misunderstanding my comments and repeating the same questions that I’ve already answered twice now.
My apologies, all, if my commentary seems a bit hot, but my civility wears a bit thin when *I* get attacked rather than my theory.
::sniffs, smoothes skirts, gives an infinitesimal nod and then pours self a drink::
FraKcture: 2005-12-05
"Yeah, and it's completely possible it's based on Rand's hair color. What's your point? We don't know how long it would take -- but we know it is not immediately. That's the point. Doesn't matter how long it takes, it's not going to be immediately. "
My point was that this line of the conversation did not seem to have any bearing on the topic at hand. But you're right, it's not immediately. But then it could have been 2 minutes. So I agree, what's your point?
"**Beyond that, if you're going to do battle--even a covert and sneaky one--you'd be insane not to bring all the firepower you can without giving away your intentions.**
EXACTLY!!!! That's exactly what I've been saying, Kuma."
Unless, of course, if by bringing too many forces you prevent the meeting from happening. Rand had already agreed upon what forces "Tuon" could bring. If the aiel scouts come back saying that they have brought too many, the meeting doesn't take place. And if Semirhage's goal is to convince Rand that he has formed a truce with the Seanchan, she doesn't want him backing out at the last minute.
"IF Semirhage was NOT planning on attack, why take damane which are used primarily as weapons? "
Well the obvious answer is that she didn't want to bring too few forces and arouse suspicions that way either. She wanted things to look just right for what the honor guard that the daughter of the nine moons should look like. If Rand isn't convinced that he's dealing with the DOTNM, then the truce falls on its face that way as well. Rand's first impression upon seeing "Tuon" was relief. He's already taken the first step towards letting down his guard. In other words, the image of "Tuon's" group that Semirhage presented was pretty much perfect.
Khazhul: 2005-12-07
**IF Semirhage was NOT planning on attack, why take damane which are used primarily as weapons?**
I've been thinking about this and I have something to put forward about this point. Since this is the Return and Homecoming, the Seanchan new that there were many Marath'Damane so not only are these Damane used primarily as weapons they are also trained in capturing the unleashed. I am making an assumption here but I would guess that the Seanchan would bring thier best Sul'dam and Damane for this task considering how monumental it is.
The A'dam were found just inside the door. If you take what happened to the three AS who are with Mat and how Tuon and Selucia took them all out and collared them with ease inside their wagon, I would say that inside the house would have been an advantage to the Sul'dam and Damane for collaring the AS and Rand. Hell, Tuon and Selucia took out three AS and neither of them can channell.
haertchen: 2005-12-07
I notice that Callandor still hasn't responded to my questions about what, exactly, Semirhage has been up to since Tuon went AWL. I think this is important because it would be useful to know just how much power a truth-speaker really has when her member of the Blood is missing. Of course, such a discussion doesn't go Callandor's direction, generally, so we can't nitpick at that, can we?
JakOShadows: 2005-12-07
Yes, I agree with the last few posts here. The way it was worked was just the right number to lure Rand in and surprise him. And Callandor, if she had brought 20 or so channelers, then Rand would have planned on that many channelers. Then when Semirhage tried to surprise him, even if she had a greater number, it would be a full fledged battle, not a small trap. Her goal is not to win by brute force, but to do what is the most logical choice based on the situation. Which would be to have a small, but "capable" group that could capture him. And Nynaeve's quote is evidence that the group was capable of capturing them. She just didn't plan on the ter'angreal, and why should she? So it was not bad planning, her strategy was foiled, that's all. For it to work, she had to take the risk of not having overwhelming numbers. And you also have to remember that the forsaken don't trust anyone(neither does Rand very much, but it is more trust than the forsaken have). So he is willing to teach his channelers to travel, where as Semirhage is not likely to do that. So that was her only other option to hide an army close by.
The Librarian: 2005-12-11
I'd say most of you are forgetting the damane Semirhage had with her. Some of you talk like the battle would be Semirhage alone against all Rands people. Considering Nynaeves comment about the close call and remembering how strong Alivia is we can deduce that
A)There are extremely strong damane
B)The damane Semirhage had with her were very strong.
The damane propably weren't as strong as Alivia, but I think Semirhage brought the strongest she could find. They might have even won in a fair battle, but now it was Rand's party that had the element of suprise.
Callandor, are you kidding? Are you having a great laugh at all of us for believing that you really don't understand that if somebody says "She is always calm" only means that she has never seen her be uncalm? For I don't think such a good debater as you could not be smart enough to comprehend that.
Lord of the Dawn: 2005-12-11
*** She's good enough to command Seanchan forces, and thought herself good enough to do it in the fist place -- yet she's only just good enough to pressumably pass for Rand.
You continually try to take situations both ways. It's getting tiring. ***
Seanchan forces The High Blood is totally different. They would also know Tuon quite well and would see any differences. Rand doesn't know that much about Seanchan manners and whatnot. So she could fake Rand and co. for as long as it took to find an opening and attack.
*** How is this thinking?
The Forsaken are banned from killing Rand. Semirhage's entire plan according to you was to capture Rand -- not kill him. ***
Her plan was already ruined. She did the first thing she could think of and Rand was right in front of her. Sort of like a reflex.
*** Can't handle that many even with surprise. ***
I fail to see how she could not handle that many. If you can explain to me how Rand and co. could have dealed with Semi suddenly killing almost the whole group without warning with the sul'dam also attacking (pre-arranged signal) and Rand would be knocked out and Semi gets the a'dam and collars him, then I will believe you. It seems to me to be perfectly possible.
*** Ah. Of course. She apparently had all these hidden weaves, Compulsion, shields, had the most dangerous of the dangerous all ready to take out Rand's followers -- yet she thinks "Screw that!" and attacks RAND? Are you kidding me? ***
Have you read what I've already wrote? Look at the situation that she was in - check in my previous post and I don't think she would be able to weave tons of complex weaves in that situation.
*** AGAIN! If she was going to attack, why didn't she bring more forces?
You're using way too many contradictions in your logic here, and stretching capabilities way beyond measure. ***
Because she wouldn't need more forces Simple as that.
Lord of the Dawn: 2005-12-11
*** Yeah, she had the collars -- back in the house and not in her posession at the time. ***
If she had everyone knocked out it would be a simple matter of channeling with the OP to bring them in. Maybe a couple seconds
*** Rand was holding saidin at the time of course, but it speaks volumes about how much capability you think Semirhage alone could have a holding Rand alone -- and then everyone else. ***
If she knocked him out or in some other way incapacitated him, maybe a link with the other sul'dam (but more likely knocked him out) than she would have a lot of time to get the a'dam.
*** And, you're not answering my question. If Semirhage was NOT planning to attack, why bring the sul'dam? Why bring the a'dam? Why bring those useless decorations, if she was not planning to attack? ***
Well I think it would be just a little suspicious the DoNM going to the meeting on her own... And she might have had the a'dam there so that she could make part of the bargain with Rand that he needs to collar anyone in his group that can channel, to help spread the chaos and to deter Rand from ever uniting Randland with Seanchan.
Anubis: 2005-12-11
**I can easily believe that Semerhage could have pulled it off if it had not been for Cadsuane, it would have been a gamble, but one well worth the risk.**
**But again, if it was worth the risk, why didn't she make the odds more favorable?**
How? She cant exactly say we can go to negotiations but I get 13 dammae and you get 2 escorts. She didnt exactly get to choose the moment of attack, Cadsuane did, and she didnt have any angreal or sa angreal to work with.
haertchen: 2005-12-12
Yes, I see it now. It's all beginning to make sense. If we assume Semirhage had all sorts of nasty weaves set up in advance, reversed and inverted, etc., she could have done all sorts of nasty things to the Asha'man and Rand. We know it's possible to kill with the one power. Maybe it's possible to knock someone out directly with the OP. Then all the damane would have to deal with would be the women, and they could shield those even if they were significantly stronger than the damane.
Of course, if Semirhage had such weaves set up, Cadsuane's ter'angreal would have destroyed them. This would then be a massive coup for Rand's side. Which makes perfect sense in context, and explains Semirhage's look of rage as well.
I think we've got decent explanations for all the apparent anomolies that have been picked at. Cool.
Stilicho: 2005-12-15
Go. Join. The. Faction. Now. Seriously. Some of the posters who believe this theory haven't joined yet. Stand up and be counted.
tworiverswoman: 2005-12-18
Just as speculation, had the MOM not been disrupted, would it not have been reasonable to have the entire party go into the house after "Meet and Greet" for purposes of negotiation? I'm not clear on WHERE in the house the A'dam were waiting, but perhaps in the natural hustle and bustle of getting everyone indoors and "comfortable", there would have been a better opportunity to (*SNAP* "Yer Collared, Chuckie!") trap Rand, et al.
Semi kept the numbers small, with Rand limited to 5 who could channel, plus himself, to offset the 6 sul'dam. Of course, that actually made 7 channellers on her side, but Rand wasn't to know that. I agree entirely with whoever posted that they (the sul'dam) were intended to distract Rand and company from the REAL danger, Semi herself. Everyone would be watching them like hawks, but the image of Tuon might almost be designed to create a dismissive attitude. (No one that tiny can POSSIBLY be dangerous!)
Her reactions of shock and surprise were too genuine, her later "calmness" (and pfft to you, Callandor... pedant) probably a mask to let her seem strong and in control.
Not a fake.
lurk: 2005-12-19
Just to add something in favor of this theory. Semi is a very strong forsaken. When Aviendha fled from Rand by opening a gateway, Rand blocks it while it is closing. Asmo commenst to it by thinking it not possible. Only demandred and possible Semi could do it. I reckon this requires a strong channeler with a lot of dexterity. Meaning Semi is one tough forsaken. She could have handeled Rand if he lost his guard somehow. And I agree with the damane being the main diversion for Rand's party. Especially if they are strong. The female channelers in Rands party would notice this right away (judging their strength) and be extra wary of them, making them less wary of semi in disguise.
Seemed like a decent plan, not very safew but decent. Just what you would expect from a forsaken that does not have the tactical skills of say Sammael or Demandred.
evilbeaver: 2005-12-19
This is a direct quote from Robert Jordan's blog
"For kcf, one of Cadsuane's ornaments is a ter'angreal that can interfere with weaves. That is how she was able to disrupt Semirhage's use of Illusion."
It would be giving Semirhage WAY too much credit to assume that she knew her illusion was going to be disrupted. Obviously she had other plans, right? That plus some inverted weaves already prepared, I believe this is one of those situations where Robert Jordan really was just giving the good guys a 1up for being clever.
I do not mean to be disrespectful in any way, in fact, usually Callandor is the person I find myself agreeing with in most posts, but I feel like this is one of those "Olver is Gaidal Cain" situations, where despite evidence from the books & Robert Jordan, the theory still lives.
alouette: 2005-12-30
Not fake. Given that the Forsaken (with the notable exception of Demandred - and maybe Moridin or Sammael on a good day) seem to have solid two-digit IQ's, it seems likely Semirhage just screwed up and put her foot in it.
I agree that Cadsuane seems to be able to disrupt illuson weaves with a ter'angreal. Semirhage did choose a mind numbingly weak attack method (even for a relatively weak Forsaken), however, so I suspect she didn't come to kill Rand, but to get him under control with the doohickeys she got from the Seanchan.
Trahelion: 2006-01-06
I agree that Semirhage did not go into the meeting intending to be caught. However, she is a very devious and powerful woman. Most likely, and perhaps indefinatley she already has a plan to try and bring about the downfall of Rand from the inside. But, I think she underestimates the..forceful ways of Cadsuane and that she will undoubtedly go through very much pain recieved at the hands of Cadsuane.
haertchen: 2006-01-07
"However, she is a very devious and powerful woman. Most likely, and perhaps indefinatley she already has a plan to try and bring about the downfall of Rand from the inside."
Oh yes. I've no doubt that she thought *very* fast when she was captured, and decided on the best way to psyche her way out of there. After all, that's one of her known specialties.
lurk: 2006-01-07
Another point to add to this discussion. The forsaken probably don't know that the modern channelers knwo houw to mask their channeling ability. (they learned this from moghedien and I seriously doubt she would make this common knowledge among the forsaken, her capture was shaming enough as it was)
So it is very plausible that semi would underestimate rand's party if she was not able to judge their strength. Even if she knew there was at least one strong channeler besides rand she would feel the strength of the women with rand, and notice weaker channelers (she would not anticipate the masking ability).
And weaker channelers can shield srtonger channelers if they have practice, Berowin of the Kin could shield Nynaeve and she was much much weaker in the power. She honed her ability. Semi could shield rand I have no doubt about that. and the suldam/damane could deal with the rest of rands party. semi only needs rand she would care nothing about what happens to the suldam/damane or the people in rands party. She would simply travel away with rand in her pocket.
Jalwin Moerad: 2006-02-27
I agree that Semirhage's capture was not fake, but I think you are all missing the crucial bit of evidence. From Lord of Chaos (Semirhages POV):
"The Chosen were no more than pieces on the board; they might be Counselors and spires, but they were wtill pieces....If the Great Lord meant to make al'Thor Nae'blis, she herself would kneel to him - and wait for a slip to deliver him into herhands. Immortality meant infinite time to wait. There would alsays be other patients to amuse her in the meantime. What troubled her was Shaidar Haran. SHE HAD NEVER BEEN MORE THAN AN INDIFFERENT THERAN PLAYER, but Shaidar Haran was a new piece on the board, one of unknown strength and purpose. AND ONE DARING WAY TO CAPTURE YOUR OPONENT'S HIGH COUNSELOR AND TURN IT TO YOUR SIDE WAS TO SACRITICE YOUR SPIRES IN A FALSE ATTACK. She would kneel if need be, for as long as need be, but she would not be sacrificed." Threads Woven of Shadow
If anyone else mentioned this, I apologize for repeating it, but I think this is Robert Jordan's tricky way of foreshadowing. Who do we know who prides himself on his stones-playing abilities (and its precursers)? Moridin. And Moridin is also Nae'blis, and we know that as Ishamael his primary goal was to convert Rand.
I think that the capture was real; Moridin sacrificed Semirhage to Rand in order to strengthen his own position, just as in Tcheran. I'm not sure how this helps him, but I think the evidence supports this interpretation, and we know that Moridin is supposedly playing both sides.
haertchen: 2006-02-28
Jalwin Moerad:
*Very* interesting find indeed. Are you suggesting that Moridin somehow set up Semirhage to fail? That she was an (unwitting) sacrifice piece, and the real attack will come later?
I would have to say that if this quote is indeed forshadowing, then the capture was not fake in that Semirhage had no intention of failing. Moridin may have known her weaknesses and had a better feel for Rand's strengths, and thus expected it. (And if it worked, so much the better.)
Well, it's a possibility. I'm not sure though. I mean, the capture could have worked if Rand had been just a little bit less lucky and Cadsuane a little less resourceful.
dweeb: 2006-02-28
Gotta know ... has anyone thought that the purpose of the fireball WAS the effect it had/is having on Rand's sight? Insofar as he had to reach out towards it, it couldn't have been aimed directly at him. It would have taken out a lot more than just a hand...
Jalwin Moerad: 2006-02-28
I am suggesting that Moridin set up Semirhage. He is the Nae'blis and has made it clear that he doesn't want anyone to act except as he orders. Semirhage would make a perfect sacrifice: she's not likely to disobey and flee, like Moghedien or Demandred. By the way, the fact that she had male adam could show that she was obeying Moridin's orders-he didn't want anyone to kill Rand, and the adam is really the only way for a woman to overpower a man (even a woman as strong as Semirhage!) without killing him.
How did Moridin set her up? I'm not sure, but I can think of a couple of ways. Perhaps Moridin promised to ambush him at this meeting if she would arrange it? Or, as a tie in to the Moridin/Taim connection, perhaps Moridin promised that some of the Asha'man would be darkfriends? I don't know, but I think that quote is direct foreshadowing by RJ. I think it would help if we knew more about the game of stones. Has RJ ever said how it works, exactly?
Ishamael666: 2006-02-28
It was aimed at Rand, but he couldn't seize saidin because of LTT grasping for the Source, and he couldn't jump aside because Min was standing behind him.
JakOShadows: 2006-02-28
Those are some interesting thoughts you guys bring up there. Moridin could possibly have set Semirhage, but why would he have done that? There are a lot more dangerous threats out there than her. Think about, Demandred will kill Rand if he sees him, Aran'gar is far to cocky and is more liable to be weakness than Semmy, so why purposely set her up? If anything, aside from Moridin, she is the one that works the most with in the guidelines. And plus, with the LB so close, you think Moridin would just try to keep his competitors in check, not get the captured and have no way to make use of them. But it is completely possible, and maybe he was just going on the belief that it would be a lesson in humility. So it is possible, but I just don't see the benefits for him exactly. If you can think of something better, I'm all ears.
JakOShadows: 2006-02-28
Sorry about the double post, I just forgot what my other comment was going to be. On the fireball, do we know if there is a way to stop a fireball. Does it work like throwing a baseball(meaning it can't be stopped after it's left your hand), or is there a way it can be modified to stop a certain distance from a person? And then there is the same question as last post, to what purpose. Yeah, he might end up going blind and losing a hand, but that was mostly luck that it ended up hitting his hand and affecting his eyesight. All that struck as something that could not have been predicted. So we have to think about whether there was another motive to use a weaker weave. There is the point that Moridin doesn't want him killed, but it would be just as easy to club him over the head if Semirhage wanted to knock him out. So it doesn't seem like the logical approach to me.
lurk: 2006-03-02
Interesting part about sacrificing your spires.
It does support my thought that Semi was planning on sacrificing her suldam/damane just to get the prize.
And something else to add to the discussion that semi knows that Rand has some strong channelers. The seanchan have some pretty strong channelers too (Alivia for example) but we just don´t know if the damane with semi were strong. They could be, they belonged to the personal stash of Tuon. If I were a ruler to be I would make sure to have very strong damane at my disposal.
Lord General: 2006-07-10
This is my first post excuse my noobness.
I just wanted to point a few things out real quick. One is that there is an assumption that you must be incredibly powerful to use the Cheodal Kal. In fact, Verin in I believe, The Great Hunt, comments on how Moirane could use the femal Cheodan Kal. Unless ya'll think that she is "incredibly" powerful then there is a flaw here. All that we really know is that it requires a certain amount of strength... not how much is in fact required. Also, Callandor I think it was mentioned that we don't know if sul'dam can link with multiple channelers. In fact we see this happen in KoD. Tuon takes two Aes Sedai damane at once. So I have to support this theory.
JakOShadows: 2006-07-10
Lord General:
While Moiraine is not one of the most powerful, she was one of the most powerful before Nyn and everyone else showed up. So she is by no means weak either. And I also think it is a matter of being able to control the weaves, and since she has used an angreal, I think she has enough experience.
Callandor: 2006-07-11
**Also, Callandor I think it was mentioned that we don't know if sul'dam can link with multiple channelers. In fact we see this happen in KoD. Tuon takes two Aes Sedai damane at once. So I have to support this theory.**
Yes, she took two Aes Sedai at once, but that does not mean they were linked together. There was a link used to use the Bowl of the Winds. Capturing two damane might or might not be the same as this, or that might just be the extent of it.
Sampson: 2006-07-11
Semirhage’s Capture was not intended.
First I want to point out my thoughts on the idea of Semirhages ability to bring an army or any number of sul’dam or damane to the scene.
Semirhage could have brought as many men and damane as she wanted. She already had communicated with Suroth(sp). The royal family has been killed and Suroth has eaten the bait for becoming the next empress. So she could have easily gotten Suroth to sign any given order to give her the resources she wanted.
Second, would anybody get captured on purpose?
She didn’t do this on purpose. She truly did think she was going to be able to capture Rand. If she captured the rest of the party, that was just a bonus. Her main objective was capturing Rand.
If she was successful, she would have had enough leverage to possibly become Naiblis. She thought the risk was worth the reward.
Also, if she was successful she wouldn’t want allot of people to know. I would assume that she would have killed Sul’dame & damane and removed any proof of what happened. Or she would have collared all the AS, killed the ashaman, while maintaining the MOM. But she wouldn’t have ever let the Seachan know she had captured the DR. He would have been hers to use and leverage any advantage she could.
Somebody with her abilities, history and mental make up would have planned for at the very minimum the idea that her initial plan may not work. She would have had to have a contingency plan just encase.
She does have some idea of how powerful Rand is, I mean she accepts that Rand is the Dragon Reborn. He has successfully killed a number of the Chosen. Demodred has not conducted any type of frontal assault or tried to fight him directly. This alone would indicate that she isn’t under estimating his abilities.
I would also suggest that Semirhage wouldn’t even have thought of capturing Rand all by herself in the first place. We know she has worked closely with both Demodred and Messana. The only time we know that she has done anything that was not part of “their†planes is when the DO ordered her to send the trolloc’s to Tear.
Third - KISS
What I think happened was really sorta simple. She didn’t under estimate Rand. She under estimated members of Rand’s party. She couldn’t have known that Cadsuane or Nynaeve would (1) recognize and understand that she had masked her ability and inverted her weaves, (2) that they had Ter’angrel that would enable them to undo the mask of mirrors, (3) that Cadsuane & Nynaeve would have masked their ability. The first two variables escalated the time table and her decisions. Once she was unmasked her choices where cut down significantly. So she tried to shield them. The 3rd point - of having Cadsuane & Nynaeve holding the source prevented them from being shielded.
So she had one last choice. Kill or disable Rand, for either of two reasons. (1) By attacking Rand she might have created a diversion where she might have escaped or (2) Kill the DR*.
* There is no way she would want to be prisoner of anybody. If she was going down she was going to take somebody with her. She wouldn’t know how she was going to be treated; she is one of the most feared beings - one would assume she would be executed. She also wouldn’t have used balefire, even the Chosen only use that weave under dire circumstances.*
AnotherForsaken: 2006-07-12
all right everybody, ive finally worked out a very reasonable explanation as to why she did what she did without making her look like an idiot.
first her plan was to capture rand. and im sure the others were to be a bonus.
heres her plan:
she has 6 channelers plus herself for a total of 7.
she should assume, that everyone rand brings will be a channeler, and probably the strongest, which she would assume would be below her level, but no doubt strong.
so that puts her at 7 and rand at 7, not knowing how strong her damane were, she probably assumes that rands side is stronger by a little bit. (of course min cant channel, but semmy would assume she could)
she knows that she cant shield rand if hes holding the power, which she would assume he would be the whole time, not knowing about his sickness.
so now what would she do, well if she gets him inside the house, or as they walk, while hes not looking and she hits him in the back with a nice little fireball, or maybe a mace of air, chop off a leg or something. hes knocked out, or hurt, loses saidin and hes out of it for a few minutes.
mean while, now its semmy and 6 we'll say above average damane, versus 6 above average channelers of rands. id take those odds if i were her, and as a bonus, she could very easily, i think take out at least 1 more as she hits rand, because they would never see it comming. an inverted club of air, from someone they wouldnt even think was channeling? surely she could hit rand and 2 others before they even started fighting back. that puts us at 4 vs. 6 plus semmy, and thats is a sure bet for semmy.
so then when its all done, she goes in the house pops the collars on everybody, and heals them. so what, rand has a broken skull, or an arm or leg missing, easy for her to fix, she's the greatest healer ever.
i think that would be an excellent plan, that would have a very high probability to work.
but then as they walk up, her mask of mirrors flickers, shes shocked, thers no way she would expect that so she whips it back up, and it goes out again, well now shes mad, how dare they, so she ups her plan, throws a fireball at rand probably aimed at low chest area, and shes probably 20 or less from him, he doesnt have time to react so he puts his hand out and off it goes. screams for the damane to shield the others but they were holding the power and have 2 or 3 of the damane shielded before they know it, that puts it at semmy and 4 verses 5. throw in nynaeve whose very near semmy and cadsuanes ter's and weve got a captured semmy. and to explain the quote, if they hadnt been holding the power and gotten those 2 or 3 damane shielded at the start, well itd be 7 vs 5, game over good guys. and..... done.
vardene: 2006-08-16
i agree with the theory but i dont see semi being prepared for the events that occured at all. Reasons are many. first, no matter how strong she wouldn't have planned on chanelling in that group, it would certainly lead to exposure and capture or even death. therefore losing the weave of illusion couldn't be in her plans. She could be killed by ashaman damane or LT. same thing goes for the idea of channeling. remember that others without the terangreal couldn't feel the channeling , even the ashaman, so she should have felt pretty safe that she could get rand alone and get the adam on him. Remember she told Tuon "you must not let him know how dangerous you are to him" semiharge's entire plan seems to have been based on that. she knew the DO would look favorably on the capture of rand whatever moridin wished. Tuon's disappearance almost scuttled everything. she probably decided on spreading sedition after she was captured. moghedien did the same. besides once the illusion was lost, what could she do? channeling would prove there was more to her than met the eye for the suldam. they'd try to collar or kill her! she would lose all. i submit therefore she had no plans beforehand for capture and only improvised as best she could. mentioning graendal seems calculated to curry favor and lay false trails (again like moggy!). so long.
JakOShadows: 2006-08-17
vardene:
Yes, she could have used Tuon. But hasn't Tuon been missing for at least two weeks based off the books. In my opinion, that should be enough time to come up with a back up plan. So its not like she had to go with a crappy plan B. If anything, it would be a bit more thought out than that. I give more credit than to bet that confidently on Tuon being back. I think it more likely she did plan on going herself and capturing Rand personally.
jae: 2006-08-18
Another forsaken, just one point that more helps you than anything. Rand was allowed a group of six with him and one of those had to be a woman who could not channel to balance so he was out numbered 7 to 6 before hand, so by you theory if he was taken out first they would then have been out numbered 7 to 5, good odds. Also any plans Semirhage had needed to be carried out before they entered the house as the inside of the house was covered in pools of blood and appeared a slaughter had taken place which may have set off some alarm bells for rand and co :)
ScorpiOve: 2006-08-19
I want to start out with saying that this is my second ever post here, so bare with me.
Now:
About Semirhage's capture...
My belief is that she was thinking of lureing him alone with herself, leaving the Damane/Sul'Dam and the Aes Sedai to glare at each other, and then use compulsion on Rand to get the sad braclets on him. She IS the Forsaken who is the master of messing with peoples minds, after all.
About the fireball, I think there was a consious choice about that too. She knows that some Forsaken have been the victims of Balefire. What I think she does not know is that more people than Rand knows how to use it. So she thinks that:
"Oh no! My cover is blown and he will Balfire me out of existance and than my Dark Master cannot revive me, his greatest servant!"
So she hurls a fireball, not that LTT wouldn't be able to handle it, but to throw him off balance and make him deal with the fire instead of weaving Balefire so she can escape.
I also think that there must have been some Prophetic or Ta'veren influence on this whole thing too. It seems Rand was destined to lose his hand, both as his likeness to the norse god Tyr and wiewings of severed hands in the past.
(Have some more theories about that hand of his, but they are not part of this thread.)
There is also something a bit phoetic about the fact that the hand that held the Sean'chen spear was destroyed by the Forsaken who was involved with the Sean'chen.
In conclusion I would very much like to see Semirhage's face if Rand and the Aes Sedai does the right thing and stills her. What a wonderful disgrace!
Anubis: 2006-08-19
**She IS the Forsaken who is the master of messing with peoples minds, after all.**
That would be Graendal. Semmy disdains compulsion and prefers to use other tools to coerce cooperation.
vardene: 2006-08-21
i dont think semi planned channeling where anyone would notice except her victim. the suldam with her wouldn't be alarmed to see her handle an adam but to feel her channel would put the fox in the barnyard. moreover she asked rand to bring 5 who can channel with him and one who cant. that means she was banking on rand not knowing suldam can channel and of course it should be easy to convince him to discuss more privately with her in her disguise as DotNM as ruler to ruler talks. rand shouldn't have felt threatened being alone with someone who can barely channel, the suldam might object but would obey. it was all hinged on the illusion. but i hope rj brings LTT back(thru semi's healing) for the last book. we've seen nothing of the famous dragon so far, at least not the sane one of the AOL.
AnotherForsaken: 2006-08-22
*** In conclusion I would very much like to see Semirhage's face if Rand and the Aes Sedai does the right thing and stills her. What a wonderful disgrace!
I dont think that would work very well. Assuming she doesnt just have a black sister to heal her from stilling (which is unlikely i think) she could just kill herself and the DO could put her in a new body and she'd be right back into the mess, since stilling has to do with the body.
the proof is that 1) you can heal it, and and 2) RJ said that if a person is burned out or stilled that in their next life they would be able to channel again, so it cant be the soul.
and i think the DO would bring her back because she is a very valuable tool, even if she did fail.
Dragoon: 2007-01-30
just a thought but if Rand is supposed to be based on Tyr does that make Semirhage Fenrir?(since Fenrir bit off Tyr's hand)Also though this might not have anything to do with this does anyone think that Rand seems to have some stuff in common with Surt? (IMO more than he has with Tyr)