I probably missed something in Winter's Heart or Path of Daggers (because of time restraints I barely read them, and what I did read was mostly Rand) which is referring to a separate army but I only remember there being one army in and around Caemlyn. Didn't the Borderland Queens and Lords bring an army/escort/embassy to the Dragon Reborn?


If that is not the case, since I'm already here I'll continue this theory anyway.


To start I'd like to go through the armies that we know of and exclude them:


1)the Band of the Red Hand, this is unlikely as a)Talmanes lacks the motive to attack and b)he told Egwene he was going to stay in Murandy to unify the nobles.


2)Bashere's army. This is also improbable as they were quite busy down in Illian and again lack a motive.


3)The White Lions. They seemed to have disbanded after Rahvin died and have either become mercenaries to other armies (Lady Caraline's) or rogue bandits, like in Arylin.


4)Darlin's army. Once again there is little incentive for the High Lord to come up to Andor when he seems to be on speaking terms with Rand and has enough on his plate with Tear and now Caraline and Cairhien.


5)The national armies. Cairhien - from what I recall doesn't have much of one. The nobles had personal armies. Tear's was under Rand's thumb and was in Illian. Ghealdon's army was busy with the Prophet and their kidnapped Queen. Any other nations are too far off to make Andor a probable or profitable target.


6)The Whitecloaks. They would be a likely suspect except for the fact that they were invaded by Seanchan. However, I'm not sure but I think that in CoS, Valda sent a contingent into Andor. Could it be this army? Surely they would have heard of the Seanchan invasion and returned, but if they were sure of defeat they might have thought that Andor, with no queen, was easier to take than a Seanchan held Amadicia. However, since we have little evidence to support this besides their being in Andor, i think we can cross them off.


7)The Andoran Noble's Army. This army was headed by Pelivar? and _______. Both nobles eager to see Dyelin, NOT Elayne, on the throne. Though they would have adequate time to return to Caemlyn, I doubt that after Arylin in CoS, they would take strong military action that Dyelin would clearly be opposed to. We can take them off our list.


8)The Two Rivers army. This was previously mentioned. Their motivation was supposed to be that Perrin was "kidnapped" for seceding from Andor. I think that there are two problems with this theory. First, this is only a small-scale army. I doubt that a force meant to defend a single village can manage an attack on Caemlyn. Even if they could, most of them are already with Perrin in Ghealdon because Kiruna and Bera brought them there. Second, they really have no reason to assume that Perrin is kidnapped. Didn't Perrin write a letter to Dannil in LoC, informing him? and since Perrin left before Elayne came to Andor. You can't really make the connection (from their PoV) that Elayne kidnapped Perrin. The leader of Andor at the time of Perrin's leaving was Rand. Most of them know Rand from boyhood and wouldn't suspect him of that, much less attack him.


This leaves us with only Darkfriends and Forsaken. By now we know the locations of most Forsaken: Osan'gar is in the Black Tower, Aran'gar with Egwene. Mesaana in the White Tower, Graendal in Arad Doman (or maybe Taraborn). Moridin is probly at Shayol Gul and Cyndane and Moghedien wouldn't act independantly of him. Demandred is still a mystery. I deny that he's Taim, but that's another post. Sammael said that Demandred had better stay out of his way, events in the South had his name on them. The only South that would bother Sammael is Tear and Illian (though far-fetched) it isn't impossible that Demandred is building an army there. These are also South of Andor i.e. in position to threaten Andor. Remember that Demandred is the only Forsaken to be repeatedly singled out as a great general. (according to BoW, maybe better than Lews Therin). Robert Jordan doesn't drop hints like this for no reason. Demandred's skills will come into play. What really makes it possible that this is Demandred's army is that in LoC, he was in the Caemlyn throne room in T'A'R. He had no way of knowing that Elayne would be there and couldn't be spying on her. He was in Caemlyn for his own reasons. Demandred has shown no other real activity so far and this would be the perfect oppurtunity for him to truly challenge Rand.


Though this theory is way, way out there, by the process of elimination, Demandred seems to be the only option.