Vileness theory (quotes are from the hardcovers, except for New Spring. Book:Chapter:Page) (Updated through aCoS, still working on incorporating info from the last 3 books. There isn't much, from what I've seen.)


Events from 15-20 years ago that can point to what the Vileness is:


~ Tamra Ospeny, Amyrlin Seat during the Aiel War, mysteriously dies.


~ Sierin Vayu, Tamra's successor, mysteriously dies.


~ Men and boys with a reputation of being ‘lucky' are mysteriously dying.


~ Morgase Trakand takes the Lion Throne in Andor.


~ The Grey Ajah was busy trying to make the ‘Grand Coalition' a permanent deal.


~ The Red Sitters: Toveine, Tsutama and Lirene, are de-chaired and sent into exile.


Cadsuane asks Merana and Annoura if they were involved with that Vileness [aCoS: 19:338] right after the Aiel War. So what is the Vileness?


This whole mess started with Gitara Moroso. She told Tigraine to go to the Aiel Waste, thus starting the Succession in Andor. I'm not quite sure how long the succession took, but it probably wasn't quick. Elaida glommed onto Morgase because of her Foretelling. So Elaida was probably away from the Tower during the period in question. I'm not sure how that fits into Toveine's 'slipped through the cracks' comment, yet. [PoD:26:513]


Gitara's Foretelling of the Dragon's Rebirth in the presence of Siuan, Moiraine and Tamra was another big starting point. Tamra swore the Accepted to secrecy, and sent them on a mission to find Rand. In New Spring, we see that Tamra also put several other sisters on the case, including Aisha, Valera, Ludice; Kerene Nagashi and Meilyn Arganya that Siuan & Moiraine knew of. [L3:NS: 61] All of these Sisters were killed, presumably by the Black Ajah. It's not known if Cadsuane was one of the sisters on the case or not.


There were several almost fronts that the Tower set up to explain the large number of sisters moving about the countryside. I'm not sure if this was accidentally or on purpose, but the actions of the Grey Ajah were one. The Grey Ajah was busy running around trying to make the Grand Coalition a permanent thing after the Aiel retreated. I doubt that could be considered Vile, but it would be a useful shield to protect the Searching sisters.


The shield that Moiraine was using was looking for widowed parents of infants born around the time of the Battle of the Shining Walls, to offer aid.


Another shield were rumors that there was a man channeling wandering around in the Borderlands [L:NS:642 from the FAQ, I haven't found it in the paperback yet]. This might explain why Cadsuane was loose in the Borderlands, since she's drawn to male channelers. Assuming she wasn't part of the Searching sisters. Also assuming she is not Black Ajah.


The Reds were out in force looking for men who could channel. But since this operation was pretty much secret it shouldn't be considered a shield.


We know from Alviarin's p.o.v. that she, Jarna Malari and the Black Ajah were involved with the murder of Tamra Ospeny. [aCoS:P:42] Tamra was “squeezed like a bunch of grapes—obtaining little juice.” It's highly likely that during her interrogation Tamra let slip that the Dragon had been reborn. But since the Black Ajah were focusing on lucky men and boys, they didn't know that the Dragon was an infant.


The Red Ajah were actively hunting down men who could channel, and gentling them on the spot. The Chronicles mention 16 male channelers found in the last twenty years. Elaida says 24. [aCoS:P:22] The eight not mentioned were probably victims of the Red's summary justice. There's a very strong chance that Thom Merrilin's nephew, Owyn, was one of those 8. Moiraine promised Thom a way to avenge Owyn. Siuan promised Logain a way to pull down the Red Ajah. They knew what was going on back then, since they were in the thick of it. Toveine Gazal was part of the Red's actions, and likely it's leader. “What had been done twenty years ago was necessary, and the Light burn all those who muttered that the Black Ajah must have been involved. It had been necessary and right, but Toveine Gazal had been driven from her chair in the Hall, and forced to howl for mercy under the birch, with the assembled sisters watching, and even the novices and Accepted witnessing that Sitters, too, lay beneath the law, though they were not told what law.” [Pod:26:513]


While wandering through aCoS, I got to the part where Seaine hooks up with Perava to start their Darkfriend hunt. [aCoS:32:517] :


Her friend waved her off. "You have no need to convince me, Seaine. I have been sure that the Black Ajah exists for...." Strangely, Perava became hesitant, peering into her teacup like a fortune-teller at a fair. "What do you know of events right after the Aiel War?"


"Two Amyrlins dying suddenly in the space of five years," Seaine said carefully. She assumed the other woman meant events in the Tower. Truth to tell, until being raised a Sitter nearly fifteen years ago, just a year after Perava, she had not given much attention to anything outside the Tower. And not that much inside, really. "A great many sisters died in those years, as I recall. Do you mean to say that the...the Black Ajah had a hand in that?" There; she had said it, and the name had not burned her tongue.


"I don't know," Perava said softly, shaking her head. "You've done well to wrap yourself deep in philosophy. There were...things...done then, and Sealed to the Flame." She drew a troubled breath.


This positively screams that Perava suspects what I've theorized: that the Black Ajah managed to convince the Red to go fanatic in the summary gentling of male channelers.


Jarna Malari was killed for overstepping herself. She was Keeper to Sierin Vayu, and probably kept up the Grey's mission in the field to keep the Black Ajah in the field searching for the Dragon Reborn. Since the Black sisters were killing off men and boys who were lucky, and the Reds were killing off men who could channel, and Ishamael wanted to turn Lews Therin during the War of Power, it's likely Ishamael killed Jarna for trying to kill the Dragon Reborn.


Sierin Vayu replaced Tamra on the Amyrlin Seat. Sierin was a Grey "With more than a bit of Red in her." She was also killed, but not by the Black. [aCoS:P:42] Sierin probably knew about the Red Ajah's seek and destroy operation, and approved of it. Alviarin mentions that it took two years to put an end to events started by Jarna's death. That's when Sierin was killed. Alviarin also wonders if Elaida was involved in Sierin's murder. Toveine wonders how Elaida slipped through the cracks when the other high ranking Red sisters were birched and exiled. Galina Casban remained unscathed in all of this, which points to Black Ajah involvement at some level. The great council of the Black Ajah had to pay in pain to convince Ishamael that they had no hand in killing Sierin. I wonder if Ishamael had plans for Sierin, or if he was still in discipline mode from killing Jarna for overstepping herself.


Here's another interesting quote [aCoS:19:338]:


...”He has a rage in him fit to burn the world, and he holds it by a hair. Push him too far off balance....Phaw! Al'Thor's not so hard yet as Logain Ablar or Mazrim Taim, but a hundred times as difficult, I fear.” Hearing those three names together clove Merana's tongue to the roof of her mouth.


“You have seen Logain and Taim both?” a staring Annoura said. “Taim, he is following al'Thor, so I hear.” Merana managed to swallow a relieved sigh. Tales of Dumai's Wells had not time to spread yet. They would, though.


"I do have ears to catch rumors, too, Annoura,” Cadsuane said acerbically. “Though I could wish I didn't, for what I hear of that pair. All my work thrown away to be done over. Others' as well, but I did my share.” ... Abruptly her voice hardened, and her gaze. “Were either of you involved in that...vileness...right after the Aiel War?”


From other parts of that quote I left out, mostly because they didn't apply, we know that Cadsuane was with the group that took down Logain and Taim, before Rand appeared. This might be the work that Cadsuane was referring to. I somehow doubt that's it, though. Her and the Other's work could be referring to the Searchers that Tamra had out looking for Rand. It could also be referring to the Black Ajah and their work looking for Rand.


Another, probably coincidental, thing, is that many Aes Sedai who think about Compulsion think about the "Vile" act of compulsion. This might be chasing jak-o-the-wisps, like people hunting down "Winter's Heart" quotes, but who knows.


[WH:13:307] Cadsuane's p.o.v.:


Once she had thought herself on the point of rooting out the Black only to watch her quarry slip through her fingers like smoke, her bitterest failure except possibly for failing to learn what Caraline Damodred's cousin had been up to in the Borderlands until the knowledge was years too late to do any good.


With this we can see that Cadsuane was indeed hunting down the Black Ajah during the time of New Spring. (Caraline Damodred's cousin being Moiraine, of course.) I think Cadsuane knew that the "vileness" was related to the Black Ajah, but it wasn't until years later that she learned that the Vileness was trying to kill the Dragon Reborn, not just male channelers.


So the Vileness is a tangled mess of Black and Red Ajahs, all searching for the Dragon Reborn. I'm almost positive that Galina Casban was involved deeply in this, since she's both, but I haven't found quotes to support this yet.



Additional Information:


point: Tigraine disappeared in 972 NE, which eventually led to the War of Succession in Andor.


point: Morgase gained the Lion Throne in 973 NE:
Dragon Reborn CHAPTER: 47 - To Race the Shadow


"Andor has a queen, lad. Always a queen. If Morgase and Elayne both died - the Light send it not so! - then Morgase's nearest female relative would take the throne. At least there is no question of who that is this time - a cousin, the Lady Dyelin - not like the Succession, after Tigraine vanished. It took a year before Morgase sat on the Lion Throne, then.


point: Elaida glommed onto Morgase as soon as she took the throne: Shadow Rising CHAPTER: 1 - Seeds of Shadow


"The very first thing Elaida had ever Foretold, while still an Accepted-and had known enough even then to keep to herself-was that the Royal line of Andor would be the key to defeating the Dark One in the Last Battle. She had attached herself to Morgase as soon as it was clear Morgase would succeed to the throne"


point: The Aiel War took place between 976-978 NE


Elaida probably avoided the post-Aiel War Vileness by staying in Andor with Morgase.