1
Tamyrlin: 2003-11-04
Why would Elaida believe it? Why wouldn't they just shield her and lock her up? If they believed her, why wouldn't they have had more precautions for the event; Egwene was successful, after all. They could have been watching the harbor much more closely, if they wanted to stop it from happening. Instead, it happened, and then they take Egwene. While Nicola could have had something to do with it, because she wants some legitimacy, believing that she could return to the WT, and that she would be received with open arms is foolish, not beyond something she would do, but definitely not something that I believe has enough proof to support it. Is there anything else that speaks to her motive? Do we know that she was fully aware of the exact details of the plan? When it would occur, etc? I can't remember.
2
Tamyrlin: 2003-11-04
Why would Elaida believe it? Why wouldn't they just shield her and lock her up? If they believed her, why wouldn't they have had more precautions for the event; Egwene was successful, after all. They could have been watching the harbor much more closely, if they wanted to stop it from happening. Instead, it happened, and then they take Egwene. While Nicola could have had something to do with it, because she wants some legitimacy, believing that she could return to the WT, and that she would be received with open arms is foolish, not beyond something she would do, but definitely not something that I believe has enough proof to support it. Is there anything else that speaks to her motive? Do we know that she was fully aware of the exact details of the plan? When it would occur, etc? I can't remember.
3
Deane Aryman: 2003-11-04
I support this theory. Nicola has been up to something ever since Egwene showed who was in charge. But the thing is, I do not think it was Egwene Nicola wanted gone, remember that it was Bode Cauthon who was suppose to go instead. But one can say that Nicola is a darkfriend working with the other Blacks in the camp or in the Tower.
4
Aragorn: 2003-11-04
Although I think it is possible Nicola is a darkfriend, I don't think she was the leak to the WT. This is why. I think Sheirem was definately involved in her runaway, by the way she acted when she told EG about the incident. ie. trying to deflect the punishment of her "cousins". Personally, I think that Sheriem, with her direct or indirect contact with the possible BA or DF knew Nicola's life was in danger and sent her away to save her. I also think that the SAS (whom I forget her name) that was really upset with the novices who helped her escape, is BA
5
Rand-althor: 2003-11-04
I agree with Tamyrlin, and have 1 thing to add, why on earth would they let her in? Opening a gate to let ANYONE in during a seige, is practically begging to be overun, so it makes no sense that they would do it.
6
: 2003-11-04
I don't necessarily beleive she went directly to elaida she could have easily gone to the sisters elaida is hiding in one of the bridge town(from elaida's attemted kidnapping of rand).
I believe they probably believed her either because areina brought some examples of cuendillar the class was making or nicola demonstrated the process, knowing how to do it herself if quite slowly(bk 10 h.c. pg 429).
Also an example of her trying to get more acclaim if only she could just get more lesons.Maybe they didn't quite beleive her but went there to just make sure. That could be why they didn't take more precautions. Or because they thought the process would go much slower becuse of how slowly Nicola would have demonstrated it saying she could finish they bowl ,small, before her next class meaning she had been there for some time and still hadn't finished a small bowl(bk 10 h.c. pg 439 bottom paragraph). And they wouldn't have been able to reproduce it very fast either because it is definitly a skill that requires a rare strength in earth for women also it definitly is a skill one must practice to be good at (same source as above bottom paragraph). They didn't expect egwene or how fast it could be done by her pretty much instantaniously 'flashed to white' (bk 10 h.c. pg 677 4th paragraph). As for her knowing about the plan and being foolish enough to go to the WT. She has a long history of doing and being both.She attempted to blackmail the Amyrline Seat for more lessons bacause she found out about Elayne and Nyneve pretending to be Aes Sedai and assumed Egwene did the same thing(bk 7 p.b. pg 221-225).
She found out about Lan's bond being passed to myrelle without his assent and used it to attain more lessons through blackmail(bk 7 p.b. pg 297 bottom three paragraphs). After all this both areina and Nicola have apparently continued to attempt to learn things they shouldn't they have been repeatidly been whipped for attempting to ease drop on sisters (bk 10 h.c. pg 431 bottom paragraph to end of paragraph on next page) and they probably succeded on some occasions or else they wouldn't continue to do so. And they could have and probably did find out about egwene's plan and went to the WT and the white tower did make an attempt to stop it but underestimated the plan and cought egewene unexpectadly after she carried it out so quickly.
7
Callandor: 2003-11-04
**I agree with Tamyrlin, and have 1 thing to add, why on earth would they let her in? Opening a gate to let ANYONE in during a seige, is practically begging to be overun, so it makes no sense that they would do it.**
They let in Tarna and Katerine. So they don't just keep everyone out.
8
Fade: 2003-11-04
Has anyone ever considered the possibility that Nicola will be the beginning of a new line of Forsaken? i mean she fits all of the criteria: angry at the ruling authority, huge potential, driven, trying to attain things in devious ways, etc.
I think that Nicola has run off to become a new dreadlord, or even an aide to a Forsaken. if she has become Messanna's aide, then she could quite possibly be responsible for egweens kidnapping.
9
Elder Haman: 2003-11-08
This is a good theory. A couple points:
1: There are two ways Nicola could escape into the WT:
A: by boat
B: by traveling- (she was spying to try and figure out how to do it) This would be disaster for the rebels.
2: Assume you are correct Tamrylin, and Eladia doesn't believe her- maybe the Balck Ajah did- or at least aren't arrogant enough to dismiss it out of hand, and smart enough to set an ambush on the possibility it's the truth.
10
Deadsy: 2003-11-10
I think it was probably someone in the hall, but wouldn't the fact that they didn't stop Egwene help this theory? Out of anyone who could've given the plan away, Nicola would be the most likely not to know the exact details. She might've just known that the rebels were going to do something at each harbor. So if it was her, that would be a good explanation on why Egwene was successful. Another is just that she was too fast.
11
scion2: 2003-11-17
The only question that remains unanswered by this theory is why Egwene's plot wasn't stopped. The only people who would win anything from having Egwene kidnapped but having her plan succeed are Darkfriends. That means that the one responsible for Egwene's kidnapping is definitely a Darkone. I nominate the lady (Whose name escapes me) who wields saidin.
12
wolfbrother369: 2003-11-19
It does explain that. For one thing she didn't suceed wholely, she was only able to do it to one harbor not both. Also why she was able to suceed at one end is explained by one of responses to this theory the one that for some reason doesn't have my name atached to it.
1. She was to fast at the process.
2. Maybe they didn't whole-heartedly beleive Nicola or she didn't know the exact date, so they didn't prepare well enough.
13
Daishan: 2003-11-19
It seems to me that Elaida is not the source of the interception for two reasons:
1. She is not really in control and will probably not even have seen Nicola since the latter would've had to go through Alviarin, and Alviarin would (a.) not take the risk and would thus prepare a capture, and (b.) not tell Elaida (part of her "keep her in the dark" philosophy)
2. Even if Elaida has met Nicola she is much to arrogant to even consider the possibility that the story is true. After all, Nicola is only a novice, and a rebel novice at that, and it seems to me Elaida will have very specific feelings about attempted blackmail.
That to me suggests that the Blacks are the ones behind the capture, not "Elaida's side". That also ties in with Egwene's experiences during her Accepted-ceremony (waking up surrounded by Blacks trying to turn her and all).
What exactly the Blacks mean to do with her is not yet clear, I'd say. They could try to turn her and then install her as Amyrlin, although then the question remains why they didn't just do that with Elaida. They could also use her to negotiate the Rebels into surrender of course, but it seems rather unlikely that will happen. The Rebels for the most part will be glad to be rid of her. At least, the leaders of the Rebel Hall will be (Romanda, Lelaine).
In any case, it will not have ended well for Nicola. I think she'll find both Alviarin and Elaida aren't as tolerant of blackmail attempts as Egwene has proven to be ;)
14
wolfbrother369: 2003-11-19
Ahh yes but you forget a couple of things.
1. Alviarin is no longer the keeper
2. The tower is greatly divided anyone of the ajah leaders could have intercepted her.
3. I don't think Elaida would be stupid enough to ignore it outright if Nicola could demonstrate the making of cuendillar.
4. The acepted ceremony experince was distorted by the accepted ter'angreal.
She was not in the white tower. There was no great purge. She was not asked to gentle Rand. So this can't be a very reliable dream. If you even want to call it that much.
5. A more reliable dream is when she dreamed her head was on a choping block and someone would have to save her (Gawyn in my opinion). Ceremoniously choping her head of doesn't sound BA it sound WT.
15
Deadsy: 2003-11-19
I'm not counting Alviarin or the black ajah out, but Alviarin isn't in a position to keep Elaida out of anything anymore. Tarna's her keeper. Elaida is more in control now, over the sisters who aren't planning something anyway.
16
Murrin: 2003-11-20
Actually, Alviarin is no longer in any position to help/hinder Nicola reaching Elaida. Tarna Feir is Keeper of the Chronicles now.
17
mako0424: 2004-07-05
I dont think my Nicola could have done this.
I luv her, she is one of the more interesting newer channeling females, including Sharina and Alivia, we have a whole new crop of uber-channelers.
In my opinion, i think Nicola bonded Areina, and i think she did desert to go to white Tower, but on the way to tell Elaida about Rebel Tower and maybe no neccessarily plans about the Harbors, i think she was intercepted by Black Ajah.
I think Black Ajah found out about cuendillar making or something, and with delaana Halima and Sheriam all ready to do Egwene in, the Blac ajah had a heads up, but they didnt know when, where, or who would be doing the deed, thus they were surpriased it was Egwene. And Egwene knew there was a traitor but i think the BA will act in accordance with the White Tower, and try and have her beheaded. Gawyn and Egeanin will save her, and the Seanchan will simultaneously attack and everything else will break out into an avalanche of fun.
I cant wait, but i think Nicola is generally innocent, and has now been knocked down a notch, and will appreciate Egwene and everyone elses kindness after Elaida and Whiet Tower treat like a crappy novice.
18
Elder Haman: 2004-07-07
This subject came up over in the theory "The pattern of the Young Sitters", here is my conclusion, but you might need to read the original theory to understand why it makes sense:
Personally I believe it's clear that Egwene's captors were expecting a novice, not the Amyrlin Seat. Therefor it could not have been a betrayal aimed at Egwene personally, but rather aimed either at A) Sabotaging the plan to block the harbours, or B) allow the capture of a novice who has learned new skills (weaves) that the Towers Sisters could use. I feel A) is the more likely reason.
Now we have three suspects:
1)The Black Ajah
2)The Old Tower Sitters amoung the Rebels
3)Nicola: with the caveat that Nicola could be an instument of either of the first two- or acting alone.
The Black Ajah: Their goal is clear: Prevent peaceable reunification. Therefore under Motive A), the Black Ajah would only betray Egwene if they believe that blocking the harbours would lead to Elaidia's capitulation- which I find unlikely. Under motive B) The Black Ajah want he Tower Aes Sedai to learn new weaves so that they are a better match for the Rebels? Maybe, but it sounds weak.
The Old Tower Sitters Amoung the Rebels: Their goal is also clear: Reunify the Tower peaceably- probably under Eladia. Under Motive A) They would have strong reasons to oppose the blocking of the Tower Docks, but also would find it difficult to oppose it openly- thus could very likely betray an expendable young novice who would also serve as a scapgoat to blame for the failure (you should have known better than to send a novice to do a Sister's work). Under Motive B) they would more likely betray Leane, who actually knows alot more of the new weaves- also Motive B is very weak for this.
Nicola: Her goal is also clear: Become a powerful Aes Sedai by whatever means neccesary- therefore she might offer either A or B as a bribe to the Tower Aes Sedai for lessons (that being he modus operandi), but she'll soon find that Elaidia is a far harsher mistress than Egwene. The main diffuculty with Nicola is that she lacks opportunity to have this knowledge.
Both the Tower Rebel Sitters and The Black Ajah (via Delena) had access to the plan of blocking the gate with sufficent time to send a warning to the Tower.
My conclusion: Egwene was betrayed by the 5 Tower Sitters among the Rebels. The question is, did the Tower Ajah Heads warn Eladia? Or did they arrange the capture themselves? If they did arrange the capture themselves, will they immeadiatly turn Egwene over to Eladia? Or will they keep her hidden as a trump card? When Aes Sedai play the Great Game amoung themselves I am reminded of a quote from another series "a feint within a feint within a feint."
19
Callandor: 2004-07-07
**I think Black Ajah found out about cuendillar making or something, and with delaana Halima and Sheriam all ready to do Egwene in, the Blac ajah had a heads up, but they didnt know when, where, or who would be doing the deed, thus they were surpriased it was Egwene.**
... Do Egwene in? Halima is there to control Egwene; she could've killed her many, many, times over.
**And Egwene knew there was a traitor but i think the BA will act in accordance with the White Tower, and try and have her beheaded.**
Then why the surprise over being betrayed? How come she didn't know who did betray her, if she knew there was a traitor?
**Under Motive B) they would more likely betray Leane, who actually knows alot more of the new weaves- also Motive B is very weak for this.**
Egwene does know a lot of the weaves. Specifically, hidding ability to channel, invisibility, Traveling, cuendillar, and more for sure.
20
a dragonburned fool: 2004-07-08
I don't agree, Elder Haman. Why the old Sitters of Salidar would want to prevent the blocking of the Harbor or giving new advantage to the Tower? Their negotiations manifested, that Elaida feels too secure, so they have no reasons to make her feel more secure. They will know Elaida will never agree with the peaceful unufucation until she is feeling strong. IMO the old Sitters wanted not to march against Tar Valon, because that would make Elaida's posiiton stronger in the TV Hall.
The success of the blocking of the Harbor would mean possibility of re-unification without blood: exactly what the old Sitters want.
Btw, there is a motive C.) for Tower AS to want to capture a novice: the scandal for the rebels to have sent a novice in a dangerous mission that failed. I already posted that as a theory in the same category under the title "Halima's Blunder"
21
Elder Haman: 2004-07-09
Except that the problem is trying to get the rebels to stop rebeling. Something they are not likely to do if they are winning.
22
brother of Battles: 2005-08-24
****SPOILER ALERT****
Well this theory has been put to rest. By know most if not all of us know it was Nicola who was responsible for leaking Egwene's plans to Elaida. The reason Egwene still acomplished her goal was because Elaida probably didn't believe Nicola but still put people on a loose watch for the "just in case" clause. Don't mean to ruin this for anyone if they haven't read the Prologue yet.
23
Callandor: 2005-08-25
**Don't mean to ruin this for anyone if they haven't read the Prologue yet.**
That is why you do not post spoilers, unless it's on a Knife of Dreams theory section. People don't want spoilers even tempting them generally.
~Spoilers~
~~~Further spoilers, but you were warned ahead~~~~
And it is not known that Nicola spilled the beans. In fact, if anything, the proglogue completely clears her since we find out that Egwene, when she told the Hall about the plan, did in fact close the scession (IE: only the Sitters, Keeper, and Amyrlin were present to hear). Also, Nicola was already gone from the Camp before the plan was released. The only options left for her are:
1. She blackmailed someone else for it.
2. She had a Foretelling about it, and Areina and her novice "family" told her what it was about.
Otherwise, she simply left for the Tower for the reason she gave: she wanted to learn faster.
