hat's that strange poem at the end of CoT for?
by Illuminati: 2004-04-01 | 4 out of 10 (2 votes)
Did anyone else than me notice how the end "poem" of CoT didn't quite fit in on any happening in the book, as is usual for end "poems" from the other books? Or did it perhaps fit in just fine, just that Jordan surprised us with showing the epic event in a diffrent style? What do I mean? I'll try to explain below just as I'll try to explain the "poem".
First off some quotes from foretellings and dreams forshadowing the future of the tower conflict, to get us all going and to show the direction of this thread. Explanations are taken from the WoT FAQ.
Egwene's dreams:
[TDR: 25, Questions, 233-234]
"She had dreamed of Seanchan, too, of women in dresses with lightning bolts woven on their breasts, collaring a long line of women who wore Great Serpent rings, forcing them to call lightning against the White Tower. That had started her awake in a cold sweat, but that had to be just a nightmare, too. And the dream about Whitecloaks binding her father's hands."
The first part seems to indicate that the Seanchan will capture a number of AS and/or Accepted and use them to attack the Tower. Though the Seanchan have caught a few AS thus far, the dream seems to imply something on a larger scale, perhaps in the prophesied upcoming battle with the Seanchan and the White Tower (see below). The second part, with the WCs, has been fulfilled: Master Al'Vere was powerless to act against the WCs in the 2R until Perrin came along.
My note: This is early in the series, and not much of indication at all about what is going to happen, but it shows that RJ already had plans set in motion for an upcoming powerstruggle between Seanchan and Aes Sedai.
[COT: 20, In the Night, 492-495]
"She was struggling up a narrow, rocky path along the face of a towering cliff. Clouds surrounded her, hiding the ground below and the crest above, yet she knew that both were very far away. [...] Abruptly, the ledge dropped away from under her with the crack of crumbling stone, and she caught frantically at the cliff, fingers scrabbling to find a hold. [...] Suddenly a woman appeared, clambering down the sheer side of the cliff out of the clouds, making her way as deftly as if she were walking down stairs. There was a sword strapped to her back. Her face wavered, never settling clearly, but the sword seemed as solid as the stone. The woman reached Egwene's level and held out one hand. "We can reach the top together," she said in a familiar drawling accent."
As Egwene herself notes, obviously related to her dream about a Seanchan being among the women "with her" in TDR, and also possibly related to her dream about the female golden hawk in ACOS. So far, the only significant Seanchan female character we've seen who is normally armed is Egeanin. However, Tuon does mention in passing in her POV in WH that she is trained in "suitable weapons", which for all we know may include swordsmanship. Perhaps she would carry a sword if she were going about unveiled as the DotNM instead of merely the "High Lady Tuon" [Rich Boyé]. John Hamby adds that Arthur Hawkwing had a sword named Justice [Guide: 12, The Reign of the High King, 109]; it's reasonable to suppose that the sword is part of the Seanchan Imperial regalia.
It's interesting that the dream seems to suggest that it is the sword that's important, rather than the woman, but it's not clear what that signifies. Possibly, the swordswoman is symbolic of the Seanchan empire/army as a whole (which is led by a woman) coming to Egwene's rescue, rather than being a specific character. It is likely that the Seanchan are going to be involved in Tar Valon happenings real soon now:
My note: This shows Egwene getting help by a seanchan or maybe just by Seanchan as a whole. This will hold relevence later when we connect the dots. ;)
"[Egwene climbs up on top of a spire.] A small white plinth stood centered in that circle, supporting an oil-lamp made of clear glass. The flame on that lamp burned bright and steady, without flickering. It was white too. Suddenly a pair of birds flashed out of the mist, two ravens black as night. Streaking across the spire-top, they struck the lamp and flew on without so much as a pause. The lamp spun and wobbled, dancing around atop the plinth, flinging off droplets of oil. Some of those drops caught fire in midair and vanished. Others fell around the short column, each supporting a tiny, flickering white flame. And the lamp continued to wobble on the edge of falling."
No need to guess on this one - Egwene knows exactly what it means: the Seanchan will attack the White Tower, an attack that will "shake the Aes Sedai to their core and threaten the Tower itself". To further reinforce this, just before she is captured Egwene sees what she first thinks is a Draghkar but then dismisses as a bat flying across the moon [COT: 30, What the Oath Rod Can Do, 677]. Sounds like a Seanchan scout flying a to'raken to me.
My note: This shows that Seanchan will attack, and it will not be a small raid.
Min's viewings:
[TFOH: 26, Sallie Daera, 317]
CARLINYA: "a raven floating beside her dark hair; more a drawing of the bird than the bird itself. She thought it was a tattoo..."
Carlinya is one of Sheriam's faction with the rebel AS. The raven tattoo indicates that a person is "property" of the Seanchan empress.
My note: This shows that Seanchan either already have influence over some of the tower or will have in the future. Since these a right beside the tower and seem to be busy there for a while we can draw some conclusions.
Now these are the foreshadowings I've found about what my theory will lead to. The Seanchan are coming for Tar Valon, and they are coming in force.
But what forces do they have that can defeat the tower, something many have tried but none have succeded with? Seanchan are seldom careless, so they will have considered this before their attack. So what is their tactics? Well, have anyone seen that flying army lately that took amador which allowed Morgase to flee in like book 6-8? This army have not even been mentioned since then. Now, the problem with taking Tar Valon is the walls, but what if you could just fly an army over the walls, none has tried that tactic before, because none have had flying creatures like the Toraken before. So, we have a large flying army not mentioned for several books and we have a vision about Seanchan attacking Tar Valon not long before Egwene got captured.
Now we know that Seanchan has the means and the army to take Tar Valon, are there any indication that they are there? "To further reinforce this, just before she is captured Egwene sees what she first thinks is a Draghkar but then dismisses as a bat flying across the moon [COT: 30, What the Oath Rod Can Do, 677]. Sounds like a Seanchan scout flying a to'raken to me." Pretty much answers that question eh?
Now, what does this have to do with the poem I have mentioned? So far nothing new in this theory, just old stuff that people have puzzled out before. Well, here goes.
The poem is an direct indication that the attack has started. The battle for Tar Valon has started. And Egwene's capture was the starting shot and the reason for this poem. The book did actually end in an epic event. Here's the poem as a whole then line for line explaining how it fits in.
[COT: End Prophecy]
We rode on the winds of the rising storm,
We ran to the sounds of the thunder.
We danced among the lightning bolts,
and tore the world asunder.
(Anonymous fragment of a poem believed written near the end of the previous Age, known by some as the Third Age. Sometimes attributed to the Dragon Reborn.)
"We rode on the winds of the rising storm,"
Now maybe there is a natural storm coming as the attack is unfolding, but I'm more guessing the damane forms a storm (remember many damane are sea people) to hide the Toraken fleet from view and maintain the surprise momentum as long as possible. This would be a brilliant tactic and Seanchan has shown to be capable of brilliant tactics before. If I could remember the weather changes at the end of the book, if the sky still was clear when Egwene was captured that would help to set how eminent the attack is, but I don't have the book atm so I can't.
"We ran to the sounds of the thunder."
Egwene's ship was sunk by thunder. We know there were scouts in the sky for this Seanchan army at the time. Probably this happened to the second ship to. If you command the Seanchan army, are close and you know your scouts are over the enemy city and the sky suddenly erupts in lightning twice in short order and your damane tell you it's not natural what would you do? Order the attack as fast as possible to get as much out of the surprise momentum as possible? I would. This is how Egwene's capture set it all in motion, the fate of the Tower.
"We danced among the lightning bolts,"
I guess those scouts could say that, but when the seanchan main fleet start decending towards the ground they will have to dance amoung the lightning, there will be a whole lot more thunder from both sides when Aes Sedai realise what is going on and how desperate the situation got all of a sudden.
"and tore the world asunder."
An attack on Aes Sedai in this manor even if unsuccessfull will shake the foundation of the whole continent. Tar Valon has been seen as a beacon of safty in the lands, not touched by time or outer circumstances, none has even been close to taking the tower. This battle will tear all that away. There will be no safty, if an enemy is that close to taking the tower in one single attack what can stop them? And the sisters will be thinking about how they are to survive if they decide to attack again. This is an epic event.
"(Anonymous fragment of a poem believed written near the end of the previous Age, known by some as the Third Age. Sometimes attributed to the Dragon Reborn.)"
I've met patrol on this one from people claiming this states that the dragon wrote this poem. But what I see is typical RJ style writing about how the origin is lost but the messege is clear. This has been pointed out several times during the series and hence the dragon remark should not be taken so seriously. I believe som anonymous member of the Seanchan invading fleet wrote it but since it was powerful it was credited the dragon. It does quite simply not sound like something rand would do, writing poems about his or other events around him. We have atleast not seen that in him yet. :)
Okey, so maybe this is right, this is what RJ was trying to say, but why now? Why launch the attack on the tower now (from the authors perspective) and not later? Everything seems so unfinished and unorganized... Well, this is exactly why. Seanchan invasion would unite the Aes Sedai like nothing else, the scale of the attack would show both sides that they have to quit their bickering and get their act together or they'll be crushed by the the other powerfull forces in the world who are on the march. An attack on the tower now would effectively unite the tower overnight, give a solid reason to stay united, hamper the "purging" of black sisters so these can stay around some more (and do more damage later).
Besides all this, things need to speed up. Rand is going to face the amyrlin, "propheciesed" (blagh, damned spelling!), and before this the tower needs to be whole, and time is running out if he want to finish in 13 books. Rand will most likely make a none agression pact with Seanchan until shadow is defeated first fullfulling the "The great battle done, but the world not done with battle" prophecy, but after that it's kneel before amyrlin time and then the tower needs to be whole. And Rand has already been in contact with Seanchan so time is running out.
Tar Valon is under attack!
That's it folkes, my grand theory. :)
Illuminati
Overanalyzing everything.
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1
Tamyrlin: 2004-05-22
Thank the lord, someone has done their research. Okay, I would say, from what you have suggested, that the Seanchan will attack the actual Tower itself, skipping Egwene's rather substantial army. They will conquer the Tower Aes Sedai, who are rather smug at the moment, dealing with their own internal struggles. Since the Sitters seem to have struck a deal, they Tower Aes Sedai would not expect the attack. However, then I am left trying to figure out the first quote, which kind of supports the idea that the Seanchan will attack Egwene's group of Aes Sedai and take some of them captive, who are then forced to attack the White Tower from the outside, which is well supported by Min's viewing. So, while I would like the Tower to be directly attacked by the Seanchan, and then have Egwene's army come in and save the day, it would appear that Egwene has been taken, and her group is about to be attacked by the Seanchan. My guess is some will escape, but many will be taken prisoner.
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Alcair Dareis: 2004-05-22
Wow. That is way more than I think I would be able to discern from four lines. But for my tidbit. ((Warning, I don't have the books on me, as my library closed down for the summer and I have yet to hit the local one.))
I think I am more inclined to agree that what Tamyrlin is suggesting would be closer to correct. They are basically right ready to put TV under seige, and Egwene decides to head out to the Tower, though I forget why she is going..at least the exact reason.
So the dream of her climbing hard, it's been hell for her to get where she is, but now everything is crumbling because of her decision to try and go over there. Now, thinking on a few fantasy books I've read, the bad guy, looking at the big picture, might lend the good guy a hand, but turn it on them later. Whether or not the swordswoman is representative of one person or the entire Seanchan, it doesn't matter. They are planning their attack on TV, doing all the scouting and whatnot...And some lightning streaks down that sure isn't natural.
I may not have substantial evidence, but I think they are pulling her off the briskets to use her as bait in some manner. I mean...Elaida is never out of the Tower unless she's looking from the balcony she's got, and so to them, Egwene IS the Amyrlin. So they kidnap her, who knows when a leader will come in handy to have?
Then again, when reading it for the first time, I thought it was someone from the WT doing it all...which could make sense, considering that strong flux of Black Ajah.
Anyhoo, I'm winding down. I think that for the most part, Illuminati is hitting pretty close to the target. And Tamyrlin brought that aim a bit finer. So her dream may have seemed like a rescue, but it was really just that way to make it easy for using her later on...if that makes sense.
3
Brendan Reborn: 2004-05-22
Finally! A theory that fits my standards! I have been waiting for a subject like this. ( i have posted a theory or two about the same subject, but have not seen them up...) I have a few more things to add.
1) The collaring a long line of Aes Sedai is most likely the Seanchan finding out of the rebels and using them as well to defeat TV.
2) Mat, as we well know, is going to invent some type of explosive. Semi is with him, and due to her superiority over the seanchan, she can take the information to the fake DOTNM and BOOM. The seanchan have cannons, guns, whatever. (Note: Mat, according to one dream, will save Egwene, don't have exact quote though)
3) Rand will be collared, and will most likely be used to defeat TV as well. His asha'man will try to save him. (both sides will fight in front of TV) His aiel will definately fight for him, as well as all his armies.
4) Perrin will see it in a wolf dream, and bring his huge wolf army to get him back.
5) Shaido aiel might use their ter'angreal traveling boxes to "accindetally" wind up there. Perrin will also follow.
There's alot missing there, but according to the facts and opinions I've stated...this looks alot like Tarmon Gaidon in my mind. Make what you will of it.
4
charliec: 2004-05-23
Nice theory, I'm impressed...
A couple of points:
Brendan- The Shaido's 'travelling boxes' aren't real ter'angreal, they were Sammael's little trick, he opened all those gateways.
Illuminati- If the Seanchan were about to move in a surprise attack against TV then the LAST thing they'd do is conjure up a storm, the Aes Sedai would sense such large power usage, and be warned of villainy afoot.
Suggestion- If Egeanin is the Seanchan who will help Egwene (which seems quite likely), then it'd no doubt be partly because of what she knows about sul'dam, damane, and Aes Sedai... and such knowledge coming out might easily provide enough turmoil to ruin the Seanchan attack and explain why the tower is only left reeling, not destroyed.
5
Jes: 2004-05-23
To Brendan Reborn: the Shaido Aiel don't have ter'angreal traveling boxes. That was just a trick by Sammael -- he sent them out through weaves he tied off that dissipated after a short time.
6
Bela: 2004-05-23
Isn't Egeanin with Mat right now? That would fulfill both prophecies, the one about a Seanchan saving Egwene and the one about Mat saving Egwene. (assuming of course the Seanchan is Egeanin)
7
minalth: 2004-05-23
The shaido could easily end up there, the boxes could 'only just have been recharged due to bla bla bla...' the WOs dont know jack about ter'angreal and they would have to accept anything. new weaves would be made and suddenly all of the shaido are outside the WT and perrin goes crazy and runs there gathering his wolf army, the DO's forces go in via the unguarded waygates and force their way through the garded ones, with heavy losses from mashadar (if i got the name right, while since i read the books). it could be the last battle, and it could easily take another 2 books to complete...
fun fun fun!
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minalth: 2004-05-23
perrin goes crazy 'cos the shaido take faile with them btw :)
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Dorindha: 2004-05-23
Nitpick: ships don't get sunk by thunder - and what ship was sunk anyway?
10
Deadsy: 2004-05-23
It's unlikely, IMO, that the Seanchan will use the rebels to attack the Tower. Egwene saw this in a Dream and she saw "women with great serpeant rings." There simply is not enough time in the story to break any of the Aes Sedai or Accepted. To force them to attack their own home would require their wills to be broken.
11
Anubis: 2004-05-24
i always took this poem to refer to the asha man. it fits them rather well in my opinion, but i didnt analize it nearly as much.
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Anubis: 2004-05-24
sorry, perhaps i should elaborate a little.
when the aes sedai talks about encountering an asha man recruiting party, she says that the recuiters asked townfolks if they wished to learn to ride the thunder or somthing like that. it was clear to a channeler that they meant learn to channel but the terminology was similar enough to the poem that my mind made the connection. Also the poem is attributed to the dragon reborn. The dragon reborn, if this attribution is correct, would not refer to the aes sedai
13
hassman: 2004-05-25
Couldn't this have already happened? There was a storm already present when Mat released the Windfinders and the bolts certainly flew.
As to Egwene's dream, there are already long lines of AS in chains. The Seanchan have conquered half the world and more than a few AS.
I think that the attack on the WT has enough foreshadowing to be a foregone conclusion, but the victor is up in the air. Among other obvious comments, that fact that there are two rival armies in siege, with both sides ready for Travel gates should preclude a "surprise" attack of any kind.
Also, one of the visions of Mat is Mat bowling for mens lives. He will control gunpowder, not give the secret away.
14
Darren: 2004-05-25
I hate to fall once again into the role of curmudgeon, but I have to agree with Anubis. While much of your analysis (on Egwene's dreams and their link to the Seanchan and the tower) seems very interesting, but you don't really tie it into the poem much (if at all.)
"and tore the world asunder" equals a failed attack on Tar Valon? Don't take that "the world" as simple poetic licence. Remember that there is to be a new breaking, with the coming of the Dragon. It may be very literal.
And Anubis is right; that recruiter definitely talks about riding the thunder and calling the lightning the lightning or some such. I took the poem to be exactly the same thing... A comment on the Asha'man by an Asha'man (not necessarily Rand.)
It fits with the rest of the book perfectly, to me, and foreshadows nicely (I hope I hope I hope) the next and spectacularly violent installment.
15
Brendan Reborn: 2004-05-25
Thanks for clarifying guys, about the Shaido's way of traveling....My idea is still freakin awesome right?!!!!It is.
16
TheNetweaver: 2004-05-26
I agree that an attack on TV seems inevitable. However, I don't think that it occurs at the end of COT, nor do I think that the poem refers to the attack. Why would the Seanchan launch an attack all the way to Tar Valon at this point? They've already been defeated by Rand in the Ebou Dar/Illian area. It seems completely illogical to jump over that front and open up a new battle with a new enemy. Yes, an agreement between Rand and the Seanchan seems imminent, but it's not a foregone conclusion.
Everyone seems partial to the pessimistic view that Rand will be collared. The Seanchan will then move in on the White Tower. Consider this, instead: Perrin has recently made a bargain with a force of Seanchan to fight the Shaido; Mat will create a close bond to Tuon; Rand is anxious to make peace with the Corenne; finally, the Seanchan understand that the Dragon is indispensable because of the Last Battle. In addition, some of the discussions amongst the Salidar AS in COT suggest that they would be willing to strike a treaty with the Black Tower (Sorry that I don't have quotes--no books. I could probably be more convincing if I had them). For now, I'm taking the more optimistic view that Rand can make peace between both the Seanchan and the rebel White Tower.
The two central issues, from my perspective, are Perrin's battle with the Shaido and Taim's role in the Black Tower. If an alliance is forged between Perrin's army and the Seanchan, events may be speeded immensely. If the Black Tower erupts into a rebellion, the plot will be bogged down tremendously. Whatever occurs, it seems like the pace of the series MUST increase in the next book.
17
Turandil: 2004-05-26
I would have to disagree with Tamyrlin. Wouldn't it be real foolish to strike the rebel Aes Sedai first?
A strong group of Aes Sedai with tens of thousands of soldiers just around the corner, ready to suround and kill the Seanchan if attacking the Aes Sedai. I think its more tactical to attack from the top of the white tower and move down, that way you wont have to fight to many opponents at once, wich is to prefere, specially when the seanchan airarmies are limited. The Seanchan wouldnt survive frontal assault, cause they are so much fewer. And Aes Sedai cant really put up to much resistance cause they cant attack unless their lives or that of their warders or sisters are treatened. Taking care of the WT would be best, and then holding the Tower guards at bay at the walls of the white tower while making the Aes Sedai damane, and maybe using them to attack the rebel Aes Sedai outside the walls...
18
charliec: 2004-05-27
but Turandil, if they come in from the top then they've got no avenue for retreat, which is a MONSTER tactical problem...
I agree that for the Seanchan to attack TV now seems quite quick in the light of their recent defeats, but then they have shown themselves already to be capable of moving remarkably fast... rivalling Rand's own "lightning conquest". Their defeats were also (IIRC) only on one front, and they still hold large areas to use as bases for further assaults- Tarabon and Amadicia...
The White tower is a huge jump from these in terms of distance, but in terms of their goals, and it's tactical value if conquered it may be worth the leap.
Incidentally, are there any thoughts on what's happened to the whitecloaks since the seanchan assault on Amadicia? they share some characteristics...
19
Callandor: 2004-05-28
**but Turandil, if they come in from the top then they've got no avenue for retreat, which is a MONSTER tactical problem...**
Not really. They gain a lot. Fewer people in the upper levels, many of the rooms are abandoned, and they have only one true front to cover. Plus, no one expects it, no one guards it, and a strike team at night is almost perfectly set up for stealth operations in the Tower.
**The White tower is a huge jump from these in terms of distance, but in terms of their goals, and it's tactical value if conquered it may be worth the leap.**
If they are in Nothern Altara, which we know they are since Suroth visited there, and they have raken and to'raken bases there, the distance is quite small in the raken and to'raken abilities of traveling. Small forces on these raken and to'raken, both in numerous numbers (100 or 200, possibly 300), with roughly 3-5 riders each, gives quite a strike force to land on the top of the Tower and work down. With sul'dam and damane, and a bunch of a'dam.... It really seems quite well set up.
Not to mention the map of Tar Valon which was seen with the Air General ;)
20
Anubis: 2004-05-29
heh, not to mention that elidias appartments are near the top... so the first person the strike force encounters is the amryllin. that would be a crushing blow to the aes sedais morale as well as a very happy moment for me.
21
Darren: 2004-05-30
**Plus, no one expects it, no one guards it
and your evidence for this statement is?
22
Callandor: 2004-05-31
**and your evidence for this statement is?**
1. There are about 200 Aes Sedai in the Tower (CoT).
2. Most of the people are on the lower levels, due to lack of people in there.
**TITLE: A Crown of Swords
PROLOGUE: Lightnings
Alviarin finally left Elaida's apartments, as cool and collected as ever on the surface. Inside she felt wrung out like a damp cloth. She managed to keep her legs steady down the long curving flights of stairs, marble even in the very heights. Liveried servants bowed and curtsied as they scurried about their tasks, seeing only the Keeper in all her Aes Sedai serenity. As she went lower, sisters began to appear, many wearing their shawls, fringed in the colors of their Ajahs, as if to emphasize by formality that they were full sisters.**
Not going to quote the rest, since it doesn't emphasize my point.
**TITLE: Crossroads of Twilight
CHAPTER 21: A Mark
Mesaana had told her of another marvel of the Age of Legends that she wished very much to see, a thing called a "lift." The flying machines sounded much grander, of course, but it was far easier to envision a mechanical contrivance that whisked you from floor to floor. She was not really certain that buildings several times as high as the White Tower could really have existed, either--in the whole world, not even the Stone of Tear rivaled the Tower's height--but just knowing about "lifts" made climbing up the spiraling hallways and sweeping flights of stairs seem laborious.
She did pause at the Amyrlin's study, only three levels up, but as expected, both rooms were empty, the bare writing tables polished till they shone. The rooms themselves seemed bare, with no wall hangings, no ornaments, nothing at all but the tables and chairs and unlit stand lamps. Elaida rarely came down from her apartments near the Tower's peak anymore. That had seemed acceptable at one time, since it isolated the woman even more from the rest of the Tower. Few sisters made the climb willingly. Today, though, by the time Alviarin had climbed close to eighty spans, she was seriously considering making Elaida move back down.**
The Tower is divided vertically in most respects. You have the roof, which used to be a garden (RJ interview) that is no longer maintained (note: that means you can get up there, and by logic, can get down), then you have Elaida's rooms which are either a floor below the roof or a few more, and then a lot of empty floors, specifically because of lack of occupants, then the main levels which Aes Sedai, Accepeted, and Novices live in. Servants do go up and down, but that is nothing over all for a strike team to deal with. We're talking about at least, least, 200 Seanchan trained soliders in a coup, with a maximum around 1500-2000.
That is a lot against few defenders. If they were to control the upper floors, and give some kind of signal to any kind of reinforcements.... Easily can take control of 80% of the Tower with few losses, and lots of gains.
23
Anubis: 2004-06-02
the closest thing that we have seen to a through the roof assult is the aiel taking the stone. to be fair that was not a through the roof, more like an over the huge wall. needless to say it was a bit of a suprise. do you honestly think an attack, on the most secure location in the world (oh where have we seen that before) through a completely unexpected route (oh again where?) with an small but elite force (getting hints of deja vous) could not take that location?
24
Anubis: 2004-06-08
oh for real world examples... thats how elite millitary groups opperate. special forces, seals etc. they appear where it is "impossible" for them to be. the seanchan are just doing the same general thing.
25
jaellon: 2004-06-10
To me, attacking from the top of the tower has the greatest likelihood for success for the Seanchan. There is absolutely no chance for a rear assault, and once you take the tower, you can quickly move in reinforcements to take the rest of the city.
Taking the top 80% of the tower will likely be a simple matter. The lower 20% will be another matter, I think. These are some of the issues the Seanchan will have to consider before launching their assault.
1) Getting a few troops in might go unnoticed. Egwene only noticed the lone scout by chance, and apparently nobody else did. Landing a few hundred likely won't. A city under siege, by an army led by Aes Sedai, is going to be keeping a very keen watch...everywhere (unless they're wool-headed stone-blind fools). At the first sign of a Wing of To'raken flying in, the cry will be raised. There goes much of the element of surprise.
Splitting them into small forces will reduce the chance of any given squadron being seen, but there will be a lot more chances to be seen. And once the first one is spotted, a) tower guards will be dispatched to the top of the tower, and 2) the rest will have an infinitely harder time getting in unnoticed.
2) Unless Lord Captain Seanchan has the architecture plans as well as the map of Tar Valon, the Seanchan are going to have to depend entirely on what they learn about the style of the tower layout on their way down. If they can sneak in, that may be enough. But they can't know that in advance. We do know that there are a fair number of servant passages hidden behind tapestries and such that an invading force won't know about until they are right on top of them.
3) Even if they avoid detection on the way down, capture Elaida, and secure most of the tower, they will eventually have to strike in force. Somebody's sure to pull the fire alarm at that point. Before they get too much farther, they will have a good many Warders, Guards, and Aes Sedai to deal with.
If I were commanding the Seanchan...well, we would probably get a sound butt-kicking. But here is what I would do to take Tar Valon:
1) Wait for the siege to begin. Wait for it to get well under way. If you've played strategy games (Risk comes to mind), you know the best time to attack someone is when he's in the middle of a battle with someone else, is weakened, but has the upper hand. Both of their attention is on each other, and the underdog won't have the strength right away to come to his rescue.
2) Use Illuminati's idea of generating a storm to disguise my air support. Charliec, you make a good objection that this would surely alert the Aes Sedai. May I propose that the storm be created 50-100 miles away from Tar Valon, and then sent in? That distance is too far away for any Aes Sedai to feel, but once it is created and set in motion, it should keep going by itself, moving quickly. This is conjecture, but I base it on the fact that the Windfinder aboard the ship that carried Nynaeve and Elayne to Tarabon had only to set the wind once, and it kept blowing by itself.
3) Land as many troops as I can muster in one go, and set them to securing the top of the tower without raising an alarm. Hide out for a few hours if possible while further reinforcements arrive. If the alarm sounds, though, push to take the whole tower as quickly as possible, whether I have all the troops I want or not.
4) Capture as many sisters as possible and hold them hostage. Not only will that drop the enemy's morale, it will make them think carefully about how to attack. Yes, it's an ignoble way to fight, but it will surely be effective.
5) Barricade it while I wait for enough reinforcements to be flown in. Set some damane a few stories up to repel any attackers, troops and damane to hold the entrances, and troops to meticulously search the tower to make sure it's secure. The city forces now have to divide their attention between me and the siege. With luck, they won't have the strength to divide their forces, nor the ability to react fast enough.
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charliec: 2004-06-13
Compare to the poem at the end of CoS...
Master of Lightnings, rider on the storm,
wearer of a crown of swords, spinner-out of fate.
Who thinks he turns the Wheel of Time,
may learn the truth too late.
From the Prophecies of the Dragon, referring to Rand, the rider on the storm and master of the lightnings. I would have to say then that it looks more like the poem refers to Rands Asha'man.
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Zader: 2004-06-23
This maybe out of left field but could this prophesize the attack on the Black Tower and not the White Tower. Perhaps by Ashaman bonded to Aes Sedai against Ashaman loyal to Taim
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Callandor: 2004-06-23
**This maybe out of left field but could this prophesize the attack on the Black Tower and not the White Tower.**
We had a discussion on the Boards earlier this year about pros and cons of attacking the Black Tower vs. the White. We came up with few pros, and a heck of a lot of cons.
Biggest one being numbers and stratagy. The Seanchan can fight female channelers quite well; so good in fact that rebellions within Seanchan are crushed.
However with Asha'man, it's totally different. Furyk Karede was made banner-general for having MINIMAL success with the Asha'man campaign. Minimal. It's much much harder to fight female channelers against male channelers, then female female channelers.
Another factor, besides simple stratagy, is the number difference. In the White Tower, there are around 200 Aes Sedai. That's it. They have their Warders, and around 50,000, I think, of the guard. Really, all that matters, is the Tower. With 200 Aes Sedai, a lot of it is vacant. A top-down strike, starting from the roof, is a brilliant plan and stands a tremendous chance of sucess vs. losses.
Against the Black Tower, you have around 600 or so trained weapons all encamped in a, I believe, 6 mile radius with a built wall made from the One Power.
200 vs. 600. Numbers play a great deal. Factored with the difficulty of male channeler fighting, Black Tower capture would be a great thing for the Seanchan, but tremendous losses would happen.
A third, and key, factor in why the White Tower is the entire reason. The Seanchan are going to attack the White Tower because they demonstrated their "weapon". In reality, it was the collapsing of Elayne's gateway, but the Seanchan believe the White Tower to be a great threat to them now, and seek to take them out.
Combined with reason, numbers, and less difficulty, relatively, of battle, and a strong and good plan of attack, the White Tower is a prime target for the Seanchan.
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: 2004-06-24
Callandor. Sorry I missed the earlier posts and I may be repeating theories. Some points to consider.
Elaida had a foretelling the BT will be rent in blood and fire, and sisters will walk its ground. Part of the foretelling may already be. Sisters are already walking its ground. The main point is the BT will be rent in blood. I won't argue numbers because to a certain extent they are irrelavent. All your points on WT against BT seem valid to me. I dont believe it will come to that. Taim discourages Asha'man bonding AS, but gives special lessons to his chosen ones. I think the battle will be between Asha'man loyal to Taim and Asha'man loyal to Rand + Logain. In COT Logain makes mention of this when he Bashere and Rand are talking prior to Rand sending Logain, Bashere and Loail to bargain a Truce. "It is time to turn your eyes to the Black Tower before Taim splits it worse than the White Tower.
If he does you'll find the larger part is loyal to him, not you. They know him. Most have never seen you." The points I like here are several. If Taim splits the BT he will have the larger better trained part of the Tower. To counter balance that Rand will have Asha'man + AS bonded who can link creating very strong circles. I know Taim's side may be able to do this as well, but I believe Taim's faction would require men to lead the cicle while Rand's faction the women will lead the cicle. Rand's faction still hold Callandor and the Male Choedan Kal. Should be enough power there to rent the BT
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silverwolf: 2004-06-28
Callandor: Zader was referring to the possibility of Rand's Asha'man attacking the BT to take out Taim, not about a possible Seanchan attack on the BT. That said, I agree that the poem is much more likely to be about Rand retaking the BT than about the prophesied Seanchan/WT battle. It simply is more characteristic of men channeling than of women.
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timetorollthedice: 2004-06-30
Tactically speaking, it would be great for the Seanchan to attach the tower from above because of all those empty levels. However, they don't know that those levels are empty, do they?
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Callandor: 2004-07-01
Yes, it is almost a sure thing that the Black Tower will be split by a civil war between Logain's faction, and Taim's. However, you did say an attack on the Black Tower, and then from within it. I misread what you were saying ;).
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timetorollthedice: 2004-07-01
I finished reading COT this morning for the second time. Reading it in context, I disagree with this post. At the end of COT, Rand and Bashere talk briefly as Bashere has apparently just returned from meeting with the Seanchan. Bashere says the Seanchan need to meet him in person.
Rand: "With this High Lady Suroth?"
Bashere: "Apparently, a member of their royal family has arrived. Suroth wants you to meet someone called The Daughter of the Nine Moons".
By this time, the Dot9m is weeks out of Ebou Dar. Suroth has a false Dot9m and is going to seek to collar Rand. My guess is that she will and then the Asha'man will free him midst thunder & lightning.
The placement of the poem after this sequence does a lot more to link it to Rand than to the Salidar Aes Sedai.
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Illuminati: 2004-07-09
Heh, waited for this one to be uploaded for a week or so and when it wasn't I thought it lost in cyberspace. Guess it wasn't. :) Here is the answer to a number of your concerns.
To Chaerlic:
First, Aes Sedai didn't seem to know about the Sea Peoples abilities and that kindof works against you. Secondly a storm is a natural phenomena, you can conjure it up at a distance and just let it ride in and use it for cover so that none can sense any magic going on. ;)
To most:
You have missunderstood. I'm saying the attack is now, that poem was the hint that the attack went down now or within the next few days atleast. Next time we will see from the tower in the series it will be under attack and in that turmoil Egwene will get away fullfilling the seanchan help part. ;)
Dorindha:
It was struck by lightning. Sending Egwene overboard, if it sunk or not I don't know, the effect is the same.
To most again: Seanchan won't use or care about the fraction in the tower. They see most Aes Sedai gather at the same place with their defenses down (focusing on eachother). It's a golden oportunity to swoop in and take them all down. Ultimatly this will also unite the tower since they'll realize (finally) that there are more important things out there than their petty differences.
Hassman:
Both armies have their focus on eachother and on the ground. None of them have seen flying creatures like the Toraken and don't even know flying creatures like that could exist. Both armies are also not expecting full out battle, so the preparations for one might not be so full out as you suggest. Eitherway, the surprise in this attack holds very well and it is the best plan the Seanchan could muster to attack the tower, and the best time.
Darren:
Most end poems have been tightly connected to the actual end of the book. This one is seemingly not, and there doesn't even seem to be much of an end. That is what I'm trying to show here, that we all take this for being about Ashaman and many to be written by the Dragon, but it doesn't fit in the Dragons character to write things like these and it doesn't fit in the authors to end the book with a poems about something completely different than the end. You might be right, but if the tower is or has been attacked the next time we read about it (hopefully in the next book), I'll be sitting in my chair with a BIG smile. ;)
TheNetWeaver, Jaellon:
It isn't a far strech if you look at the map, and we have a huge flying army of Seanchan who took Amador a good time back and we have a mountain range conviniently withing range of Tar Valon where they could hide while gathering information. It is a carfully planned attack that's been in the making for quite a while now and everyone seems to have forgotten the flying army and think there will be a marching army coming. Not likely, Aes Sedai would spot and crush such an army not to mention all failed attempts in history to draw conclusions from. Surprise and compromize the walls is the way to go. :) Also, you do not send in small forces doing this, you send in the whole chabang in major offence to force the issue. Sure, a couple of toraken might be shot down on the way, but say 90% arrive at their destinations... that is more than Elaida's side alone can handle I think, It will force cooperation and there will be no time to quarrel with a couple of 1000 soldiers and maybe 100 damane secure in the tower (neither side wants to loose the tower and that takes presidence over any internal matter).
Put short, the first attack is the strike in force. No covert operations except the scouts. This is how Seanchan have done at every point up until now, they send in a few scouts and then strike in force overwhelming the enemy.
I don't think they care for the amyrlin or not, if they capture here it will be by chanse. To Seanchan it doesn't matter since they are all gonna get captured anyways.
Jaellon pretty much describe the way I think it's planned however they'll most likely be seen the first go, storm or no so they'll send every last toraken they have on that go to get as many in as possible. The storm will prevent detection before the walls, but when they swoop down on the tower itself it would be pure luck if none saw the swarm.
All:
I imagine toraken having capabilities for about 20 soldiers. I might be wrong about this but that's how I pictured them... raken might have just a few, but toraken is alot larger. Having say 100 toraken and 20 on each, and atleast 1 damane on each would be a quite impressive army and that's about the amount I think it will be. I would also out of tactical view stack asmany damane as possible in this army to counter the vast amount of Aes Sedai. And we havn't quite seen any gatherings of damane lately, so somewhere there have to be quite a few of them. ;)
Black vs white?:
The white tower holds much more strategic value and is a whole lot easier to take (believe it or not). As such the Seanchan would be stupid not to attack white first, and the seanchan has shown to be everything but stupid.
Thunder and Ashaman:
We have read countless times that Ashaman use earth and fire (males strongest elements) while female use wind and water. This poem is all about power being flung about with wind and water. SO connecting it to the Ashaman is weird for me, the only thing that hold is the reqruit stuff. And ofcorse Rand, he's been using pretty much any element and power in the book and doesn't seem to have a weak spot. :)
Next, when in battle Ashaman typically use explosions and eruptions of the earth (explosions of fire). Waves of fire and stuff like this, while we have seen that Seanchan and Aes Sedai (and wise ones) are found of using lightning (air). All this have exceptions ofcorse, but I'm talking about generally now, another point against ashaman connection.
I think this poem was written by a Seanchan commander with a tilt toward poetry. It is in my mind a perfect description of how it would feel like to be on the attacking force, especially when they swoop down on a toraken in the mids of the fighting that will be going on if they launch this kind of assault. Aes Sedai will throw lightning in masses to take down the toraken before they reach the tower.
As for the tore the world asunder part, however this battle goes, it will tear the world asunder. It will once and for all strip the Aes Sedai of their feeling of invoulnerability in the tower and it will also show to the world that in supposedly impossible task of taking the white tower in combat is very much possible to for this foe. If the attack fails (which it does in Egwene's dream) it will also tear the Seanchan considerably (and to them that is the world). This loss will hurt alot more then their resent considering what is at stake (the ability to show the world that they are stronger than Aes sedai and their whole air naval army).
I think it's a beautiful poem and I'm just showing you guys the posability that Mr. Jordan decided to describe the epic event a little diffrently this time. There's also alot of people saying that nothing happened in the book (because of no major event at the end), but if I'm right something did happen and it was a major event. :)
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DragonsShield: 2004-07-20
i would never have come up with that and i agree that the tower is probably already under attack by Seanchan. It always sounded to me that the Poem was written by an Asha'man about the last battle or maybe Dumai's Well
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Aiel Finn: 2005-01-14
If Ewgene is being held by AS in the tower, she is probably in the bottom basement cells. If the Sanchean attack, Elida will probably be killed (pet theory, prediction) Then there is only one Amrylin who comes out from under forkroot, and rallys the AS to beat the Sanchean back. Then Rand or Mat makes a truce, the truth about Sul'Dam comes out and the WT remains, whole behind Ewgene.
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Jiana: 2005-01-19
Wow, you have laid it all out so neatly it seems almost impossible for it NOT to be that way! I rather thought that Elaida would escape the Seanchan but be cast out of her position as a usurper, and thereby take the route of Colavaere (suicide) rather than bow to Egwene. Egwene probably is in the subterranean rooms of the Tower, which sparked a thought that perhaps Pevara & Seaine's group has her, rather than anyone else. That would actually be a good thing, wouldn't it? At least better than some of the others in the Tower. As for the Seanchan attack itself, remember that a lot of the women with the Salidar army are quite strong in the Power, very quick studies, and not bound by any Oaths. This would make it easier for them to strike back at the Seanchan.
"Also, one of the visions of Mat is Mat bowling for mens lives. He will control gunpowder, not give the secret away."
What if he has to gamble for the secret? Either to keep it or to learn it. Just a thought. Good theory, Illuminati.
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WCDWarder: 2005-01-21
Illuminati, this is an amazingly well-thought-out theory. But I tend to disagree with your interpretation, and those offered by others. Let's examine the poem:
[COT: End Prophecy]
We rode on the winds of the rising storm,
We ran to the sounds of the thunder.
We danced among the lightning bolts,
and tore the world asunder.
After analyzing it myself, I don't understand why it has to have anything to do with the White Tower. There simply is no evidence that it is. Instead, I suspect it could be an Aiel poem recounting the time leading up to Tarmon Gaidon.
The penultimate line states "[w]e danced among the lightning bolts." If this is speaking of the last battle, who do we know that considers such a fight a "dance?" The Aiel, of course.
The second line states "we ran to the sound of thunder." Again, the runners of Randland are the Aiel. And I would be quite surprised (and disappointed) if the last battle did not include plenty of the thunder and lightning referenced in the middle of the poem.
The first line reads "[w]e rode on the winds of the rising storm." Why does this have to be taken literally? The rising storm is the buildup in the books leading to TG. And there can be little argument that the Aiel as a whole have been riding the winds of that particular rising storm from the beginning.
Finally, the final line speaks of tearing the world asunder. We know there will be a 2nd breaking, tearing the world asunder. Is it too far-fetched to believe that an Aiel would speak of his allies and himself as the collective "we" whose last battle lead to the 2nd breaking?
Finally, I believe the Aiel's oral tradition lends itself to poems such as this. Indeed, it could be an excerpt of one of the Aiel's battle songs.
Also keep in mind that RJ often expects us to draw the most obvious conclusion. When he writes a poem that refers to battle as a dance, the most obvious conclusion to me is that it was authored by an Aiel. This would also explain why the author is unknown -- the Aiel simply do not reduce their histories to writing.
Finally, the incongruity of an Aiel poem at the end of CoT does not bother me one bit. CoT is probably the most difficult read in the series, and to be frank, not on par with the others oraganizationally speaking. Even RJ is on record stating that he wished he had written it in a different format than the temporally conincidental starting point for the storylines.
So, IMHO, I believe that these well-thought-out theories, while very good, overlook the obvious answer, and the one I believe to be true.
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Wompat: 2005-08-07
also WCDWarder, in TGH ch 28, a new thread in the pattern, when the Aiel who asks Verin and the Shienarens about he who comes with the dawn, he is interrogated by Verin. When he thought he couldn't adequately answer her questions he said, "Bring your lightnings Aes Sedai. I will dance with them."(pg.411)
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snakes-n-foxes: 2005-08-07
Great Theory.
As to the question of whether the Seanchan will attack the Salidar AS or the WT AS, I think it will come down to this :
As a commander, would you attack a mobolised army, with the likelihood of the WT AS coming to their aid...Do you attack the Salidar AS, in the open field, where such an attach would allow them to use the Power as a weapon , due to their lives being put in danger...
Or would you attack the seat of Power (TV), with that power currently divided in half – where you could fly in under the cover of darkness, take and hold the gates with damane, then work inwards. If you flew in Damane to hold the gates, they could use the power as a weapon to easily hold off troops outside the gates, likely rendering the Salidar AS powerless to help, due to the 3 oaths. You are then free to divide and conquer (fight half at a time – the TV AS first, then the Salidar AS).
The other major strategic benefit of doing it this way, is you suddenly render the Salidar AS truly homeless, and leave them exposed to attack from three fronts (TV, all other angles, and the air)
Given this line of thought, I think the Seanchan will attack TV.
As for Egwene's dream. She thought it was just a dream, not a dreamers dream. But just say it was a true dream...the WT does not keep strict track of AS wonderings. It's quite possible that there are already a large number of AS now damane that ‘could' be used in the attack on TV (although I wouldn't trust them personally for such).
So how does Egwene become Amyrlin Seat ? Simple. The above strategy would only go ahead if the Seanchan Commanders did not know that the Salidar AS could Travel. The Seanchan attack TV under the cover of darkness, coming from angles that the Salidar AS cannot see...the Salidar AS eventually wise up to what's going on, and save the day, just as the WT is about to fall. The pride of Aes Sedai will not allow Elaida to remain Amyrlin after the biggest catastrophe in WT history, and she will, after much bickering, be replaced by Egwene....who I think was captured by WT AS.
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JakOShadows: 2005-08-07
In the KoD prologue...
Spoiler
...there is also evidence that it is not the tower, because wouldn't the attack start fairly soon after the thunder. It's an interesting thought, but I think it is more tied to the last battle. The CoT seems the most closely tied to that because it pulls all the conflicting elements between the Seanchan and the Rand's armies together. There is just too much the new prologue sets up for there to be attack. It seemed like a good initial idea though.
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lurk: 2005-08-08
It is a lite remark but i just read this thread. Illuminatie about ashaman and lightning. Rand used a lot of lightning in the battle with the shaido at cairhien. So it is not strange to atribute lightning to ashaman. Isn't lightning fire and air? This would mean that male and femal channelers would have equal power in this for fire is a male power end air is a female power
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Yem479: 2006-01-19
Theres a lot of talk about the rebel AS being captured and collared in order to help with the attack on TV, but collared AS are still bound to the 3 oaths and cannot be used as weapons. Just a thought.
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Eek: 2006-01-20
"But what forces do they have that can defeat the tower, something many have tried but none have succeded with? Seanchan are seldom careless, so they will have considered this before their attack. So what is their tactics? Well, have anyone seen that flying army lately that took amador which allowed Morgase to flee in like book 6-8? This army have not even been mentioned since then. Now, the problem with taking Tar Valon is the walls, but what if you could just fly an army over the walls, none has tried that tactic before, because none have had flying creatures like the Toraken before. So, we have a large flying army not mentioned for several books and we have a vision about Seanchan attacking Tar Valon not long before Egwene got captured."
Actually this To'raken army is in Tarabon chasing Ituraldes raiding parties and if his plan goes as planned the larger part of their army will be destroyed.
Besides, there's one thing to capture the land at your border (from Altara to Amadica) than flying across half a continent. And the rakens is often mensioned to be exhausted after a few hours of flight and since the Seanchan can't travel (a raken is probably to large to pass through a gateway anyway, unharmed that is) they will have to fly over Andor or Murandy. Both lands covered with armies aswell as channelers and a lightning bolt in the face should bring down a raken and it's rider.
"(Anonymous fragment of a poem believed written near the end of the previous Age, known by some as the Third Age. Sometimes attributed to the Dragon Reborn.)"
Does this in anyway says that Rand wrote it? It's about him, probably about the Asha'man and the Aes Sedai who will follow him but it's written by someone else than him.
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Callandor: 2006-01-21
**Actually this To'raken army is in Tarabon chasing Ituraldes raiding parties and if his plan goes as planned the larger part of their army will be destroyed.**
The raken have for the most part been moved over to seeking Ituralde -- the to'raken were specifically mentioned as not being used for the mission because they were needed for a mission "that must go forward."
**Both lands covered with armies aswell as channelers and a lightning bolt in the face should bring down a raken and it's rider.**
People rarely look up in Randland, it's been pointed out several times. Plus, large sections of Randland are completely uninhabited. The Seanchan have routes through territory that's contested up to Andor, and at the place in Andor the land isn't nearly as densely populated as say Caemlyn, and there are no known armies there (roughly between Whitebridge and Baerlon). Across Andor (at a narrow point, too) then to the Caralain Grass and the Black Hills which are almost completely deserted.
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Lord of the Dawn: 2006-01-22
Good theory :)
***Theres a lot of talk about the rebel AS being captured and collared in order to help with the attack on TV, but collared AS are still bound to the 3 oaths and cannot be used as weapons. Just a thought. ***
The oaths do not completely rule out the use of the Aes Sedai as weapons. Remember that Aes Sedai can use the OP to trap, knock unconscious, etc. as long as they are not trying to kill them. But even then, they are allowed to use the OP to kill to defend their lives, their warder's life or other sisters' lives.
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Callandor: 2006-01-24
As long as an Aes Sedai feels they're in danger, they can get around the Oaths. For some, it's simply using very strange meanings of "danger" to themselves. Some could be so delusional, a man walking towards them could be seen as a danger and they could use the One Power against him. All perception and intention with the Oaths.
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Mad Tinker: 2006-01-25
Yem479, do you have any proof of that statement? While it makes sense, it would sure make a collared AS much less valueable to the Seanchan.
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Khazhul: 2006-01-25
I believe Pura, Tuon's personal pet of a damane who was an AS, was remarked by Tuon as still being restricted by the three oaths. Maybe it wasn't Tuon but when they were all looking for Tuon, Pura was the most adamant and the sul'dam was remarking about it. Either way it shows that the three oaths still hold and that would make it very hard for the Seanchan to use them against the Tower.
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Callandor: 2006-01-25
Collared Aes Sedai are less valuable weapons, yes, but you have to look at it in their view. Aes Sedai are an effrontery to everything the Seanchan stand for. One of them collared is a tremendously good thing, only down side is that there are still others waiting to be collared. And, damane are used for other things than simply killing/destroying. Guards, capturing, construction, Sky Lights, etc. are done by damane as well. Granted, weapons are easily one of the more important aspects of damane, but even there the Aes Sedai can eventually function in that role -- it's just going to be harder for her since she has to get around the 3 Oaths.
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robertcroome: 2006-06-24
This is a hell of a theory, however something tells me that the young sitters have something to do with this, and its 12 books not 13 unless u count the prequal which is in fact a prequal,and the main reason that egwenes capture sentthe attack in motion is most likly because they think the tower will re-unite soon so they must attack now. Also both AS sides know travelling now as elaidia got told it. Great theroy though.
