When Rand is visiting the School of Cairhien with all the inventors, he notices that there are no military projects at all except Idrien's ballista. There is a good reason for it: all the inventors come with their old books and have their initial ideas from there, all the inventions are actually re-inventions. And because all the high-tec is something from the AoL and in AoL there was no military technics, it's clear that only residues of memories about peaceful gadgets are to find. But I think there's something more in such loss of ideas for military inventions. I see mark of will to avoid military inventions.

I can not believe that nobody in the long full of furious wars history of the 3Age had some "insight" about military use of fireworks. It's obvious for every idiot, that they can harm men, and that's not dififcult to see they can do it in very high degree. There was a plenty of situations when the military men were ready to use everything to win and fireworks are more likely to be used than the help of AS, for instance. Why nobody got an Illuminator in his torture-room for persuading him to develope a new weapon? Why an Illuminator himself not doing it for saving his country from Trollocs or something like that? I cannot find any reason for it except that there is will to prevent such military use, an will deeper than ordinary seeking for monopoly. And there are forces, wich want very much such things as firearms never being invented.

The WT is of course interested in firearms never being invented. Traditionaly for many reasons they don't like powerful weapons not in their control; they want being supposed as extraordinally strong and invincible and everything that could threaten that image is to be radicaly and very decisively and very discretly removed; they are mad in destroying everything that could look like AS-action that not their own and using firearms in battle could be eventually supposed by some people for using OP-devices i battle, therefore for the WT sake...; if there are firearms, AS will be needed not in the degree they are needed now in difficult situations; AS educational traditions imply the ideal of the peaceful society and every high destructive knowlege will be allways regarded as great evil and if it's nesessary to use it, only the AS theirself can do it and only secretly... Short to say AS will without doubt make all their efforts to avoid the exisetnce of everything resembling a firearm. And if an AS finds out somebody intends to use firework in warfare, she will regard it as her duty to stop such attempts once for ever and doing everything for preventing another attempts of that type. And such attempts most posssibly took place.

And if AS didn't find it out, every clever one could imagine, what AS would say and do and that's reason for making the firearms idea prohibited before an AS comes.

If you want not only hiding some idea, but preventing it's reinvention, you have to create good reasons against thinking in that direction, something like connecting some important points of the dangerous idea with unclear but really GREAT another danger and creating an organisation dedicated to remember that another danger. The memebrs of that organisation must never suspect the real danger but be very engaged in serving their secret guard function in the fighting the another danger. That means the organisation has to be high secret in their inner rules and not very important in their official appearance and have the opportunity to hold the monopoly of something needed for the firearms. That's the way that any eventual new inventor not doing his work alone but first he will cross his way with the organisation and they will stop him.

My hypothese is that the Guild is created as such organization.

Why is the secret-loving Guild from Tanchico so extreme secret-loving? Every Guild in WoT World likes secrets but the Illuminators are some levels above them all in this hobby, they are more secret-loving even as the WT! They are known for quick killing everybody seeking for their secrets and similar things too close to claiming for some privileges only lords have (and even privileges only rulers have) in Westlands. Why the local lords don't stop the crazy autonomy of some bloody craftsmen (lords in WoT never have something against showing craftsmen where their place and they always have the possibility for it)? Illuminators seem never participating in politics and they are only used, not taking part in the Great Game. Why the King and the Panarch are so tolerant to them. Actually they are not so useful as showmen, they are even not usible for spy service (only idiots like Omerna could think they are, as Pedron Nial states). No other official organisation has so drastic rules for keeping secrets. And what for? Only for the monopoly on fireworks? In all cases I thing there is (at least was in the beginning) some greater force behind them to guarantee their privileges.

I don't say AS are behind the Guild now. I don't say they are the first directors of it. I think if they created the Guild they have done it in the way the Guild itself never can suspect their help. And I'm sure, if there is WT link in the Guild, that it is secret not for every AS too. We know, that AS like hiding secrets from themselves, and that's the way to deal with an idea wich is to be forgotten. Actually AS don't know now nothing about that hypothetical Gild-creatin operation. But they know some related things, some residues of memories about it, without knowing it's real significance.

Now, the Guild knows the most important things to create firearms, they allways have known it, because they must have the minimum knowledge about the prohibited for effectively prohibite it. Of course they don't know enough for real firearm, ther's needed an inventor for some details needed for practical producing weapons. And their tradition built strong barriers in their minds against any military use, some of them in the form of very strong arguments, some of them in the form of irrational collective feelings. What happens when Aludra is out of the Guild and the Seanchan took Tanchico? Not that the barriers falled, Aludra is in her way faithful to the guild. But the situation changes in the way that another unsupposed chance may occur and there's no Guild more to stop it in teh proper way. Aludra wants to save the Guild, but the Guild regardes her as a traitor. For her returning into the Guild as their Mistress she has to demonstrate her importance for the Guild to survive and for their Secret too. When she's communicating with the salt merchants and similar in CoT (obviously buying great ammounts of the gunpowder ingradients) that can not been hiden from the survived Illuminators (organisation of their type will have ways to be informed about such things), and she knows it. She will contact with the Illuminators with her conditions. We don't know all about what conditions. But I have some thoughts abouts Mat's role in her plans.

If my hypothese is right, the Illuminators can have some unclear idea about some great secret force, that is in some way in in their conspiracy. Any changes doing with their secret is impossible without the support of that unknown another force. My 2-d hypothese is that Aludra thinks that Mat is someway willing or nonwilling agent of that another force. (Maybe that thoughts leaded her to behaveat strange reserved way to Tom, who seems like and is actualy high-ranked conspirator. Another conspirator will allways recognize him - like the case with Mor the Seeker. When Aludra speaks not with Tom, she tells him "I'm playing our secret game"). When Mat tells her about his new-weapons ideas, she can think that another force maybe wants some changes too. But she must be sure. What make conspirators when wanting to be sure they are speaking with the right man? They ask for password. The best password if there's no convention about, is some question concerning the common secret. And we have Aludra's riddle.

Now if the supposed another force are the AS, some of them will know something useful for thew riddle. If they realy don't know what their fragments of knowledge means, and knowing with our ta'veren there are two formal sitters and one AS with some connections with Tarabon affairs, and all they are depending on Mat, they could give Mat the clue he needs to solve the riddle. And Aludra will think WT is for reinventing firearms. So Mat will get new weapons and Aludra will manage the Guild to become monopolist in firearms industry. That's the prediction based on my hypotheses.