My theory is that the clarity of the Foretelling is directly related to the length of time between the Foretelling taking place, and the incident that was Foretold occurring. There is also some evidence to suggest that clarity of Foretelling is related to whether the individual with the Talent can remember their Foretellings or not.

The main sources of Foretellings in the Wheel of Time are the Karaethon Cycle and Elaida, with other Foretellings coming from Nicola and Gitara.

The Karaethon Cycle predicted events a long time in the future (3000 years and more), and it is extremely hard to understand.

Evidence:

TDR ch6 ~“Even scholars who have studied them for their entire lives do not know how to interpret them all”~ pg93

Tor Website Q&A ~ The Prophecies were the collected Foretellings that occurred before, during and after the War of Power~

Gitara's Foretelling of Rand's birth took place very close to the time of his birth (a day, no more), and it was easily understood.

Evidence:

NS ch2 ~“He is born again!” Gitara cried. “I feel him! The Dragon takes his first breath on the slope of Dragonmount! He is coming! He is coming! Light help us! Light help the world! He lies in the snow and cries like the thunder! He burns like the sun!”~ pg 34

Elaida's Foretelling from ACoS was relatively clear, and concerned events in the not too distant future (probably less than a year, although it is not yet possible to say for certain).

Evidence:

ACoS, prologue ~The White Tower will be whole again, except for remnants cast out and scorned, whole and stronger than ever. Rand al'Thor will face the Amyrlin Seat and know her anger. The Black Tower will be rent in blood and fire, and sisters will walk its grounds~

Elaida's Foretelling in TEotW was clear, and concerned events over approximately the next three years.

Evidence:

TEotW, ch40~ “This I Foretell," Elaida replied, "and swear under the Light that I can say no clearer. From this day Andor marches toward pain and division. The Shadow has yet to darken to its blackest, and I cannot see if the Light will come after. Where the world has wept one tear, it will weep thousands.”~

This is slightly clearer than might be expected, but Elaida attempting to make her Foretelling clearer can perhaps account for this.

In the prologue to ACoS, Elaida made a foretelling that was badly understood

Evidence:

AcoS prologue ~ long ago she had Foretold that the Royal House of Andor held the key to winning the Last Battle~

As a result of this, she attached herself to Morgase, yet it was Tigraine who was the important member of the House, not Morgase. Some of the confusion can be explained by a lack of knowledge on Elaida's part, but it still seems that some of the confusion must have come directly from some ambivalence in the Foretelling.

Nicola's Foretelling in LoC was about events after the Last Battle (at least a year away), and it was cryptic in some places, but clear in others.

LoC ch14 ~ The lion sword, the dedicated spear, she who sees beyond. Three on the boat, and he who is dead yet lives. The great battle done, but the world not done with battle. The land divided by the return, and the guardians balance the servants. The future teeters on the edge of a blade~ pg362

It is illogical to suppose that Gitara's ability to Foretell would be stronger than that of the Aes Sedai during the Breaking, since all things related to the One Power have declined since that time. This indicates that the strength of Foretelling is not related to clarity.

These things combined suggest that the degree of clarity of a Foretelling is related to the length of time between the Foretelling and it coming true. This explains why the oldest Foretellings are the most cryptic.

Gitara had the Talent very strongly

Evidence:

TGH ch8 ~ when she had the Foretelling, it was strong~ pg128

This could be suggested as a reason why she was so clear, but that supposition does not fit with the evidence from Elaida's Foretellings. By her own admission, Elaida has the Talent weakly, and yet we can see that she is relatively clear.

Evidence:

TSRch1 ~it came seldom and faintly~ pg 26

TEotW ch40 ~ “This I Foretell," Elaida replied, "and swear under the Light that I can say no clearer. From this day Andor marches toward pain and division. The Shadow has yet to darken to its blackest, and I cannot see if the Light will come after. Where the world has wept one tear, it will weep thousands.” She whispers the rest to Rand. “Pain and division come to the whole world, and this man stands in the heart of it”~

It could be argued that she spoke clearly because Morgase commanded it, but there are several pieces of evidence to contradict this, one of which comes directly from Elaida herself. Firstly, from the above quotation,, “I can say no clearer” could either mean that she is actively making her words clear, or that she has no control, no ability to make the words any clearer.

Evidence:

TSR, ch1 ~The Foretelling had come on her at the sight of him~ pg 26

BWB, ch24 ~Foretelling ... cannot be called at will~ pg300

While not conclusive that she did not speak clearly because she was commanded to, they definitely suggest that Elaida has little to no control over her ability.

An analysis of Elaida's Foretelling suggests clarity is not related to Foretelling strength.

However, it does suggest another possibility for why certain Foretellings are clearer than others.

As shown above, Elaida's Foretellings are usually fairly clear. Further, she remembers what she has Foretold.

Evidence:

TSR ch1~The very first thing Elaida had Foretold, while still an Accepted –and had known enough even then to keep to herself~ pg26

Nicola, on the other hand, does not remember what she has Foretold

ACoS ch9 ~The major Talent, Foretelling, emerged so that no one understood what she had Foretold. She herself did not remember a word she said~ pg 193

Although admittedly two people is too few to form a proper theory on this, there are no more examples to go on, and there does seem to be some connection between clarity and memory.

This may also explain why the Karaethon Cycle can be understood at all. Given that Nicola's foretelling, of an event only a few years in the future, is so much more cryptic than Elaida's Foretelling of an event less than a year away, it would seem logical to expect Foretellings three thousand years before their fulfilment to be incomprehensible. If the Aes Sedai making the Karaethon Cycle had the ability to recall their Foretellings, it may help to explain this.

The reason why Foretellings have different degrees of clarity is less clear. One suggestion would be that free will has the ability to jeopardise the accuracy of any Foretold event. This is not to say that the event would not happen

BWB, ch24 ~these events are firmly set into the fabric of the Pattern~ pg300

but rather that the precise details of the event may change. This relates very closely to the nature of predetermination in the Wheel of Time; small details can be altered, the bigger the details are, the less they can be altered.

As to why memory would play a part in the clarity of a Foretelling, there is little evidence to work with in formulating a theory. On pure speculation, it could be argued that the act of the information from the Pattern passing in to the mind of the Foreteller somehow alters the wording. If it does not stay in the mind, it is delivered unprocessed, raw, and lacking refinement, and therefore is lee easily understood, because. If it lodges itself in the mind, it is made easier to comprehend, changing the wording without changing the meaning.

So there it is. My theory on why some Foretellings are clearer than others. The degree of clarity is definitely related to the length of time between the Foretelling and the event, and possibly it is also connected to whether or not the Foreteller remembers the Foretelling.