he Pattern of Sitters That Are Too Young
by Elder Haman: 2003-02-03 | 8.33 out of 10 (6 votes)
Before CoT I thought that perhaps the Tower AS were leaving spots open for the returning Sitters who had left. (ie young Sitters, easy to push out). CoT has confirmed this idea- and expanded it.
What we know of the pre-split Sitters:
Blue Sitters: only w/ Rebels
Red Sitters: only in Tower
Gray: two in Tower, one with Rebels
Yellow: two in Tower, one with Rebels
White: two in Tower, one with Rebels
Green: two in Tower, one with Rebels
Brown: one in Tower, two w/ Rebels
In the Tower: Five too young/doesn't fit Sitters- one in Gray, Yellow, White, Green, and Brown.
Of the six pre-split Sitters with the Rebels only one stood for war: Janya- of the Brown Ajah! The other five promote negotiation, (w/o first clearing it with Egwene or the Hall)!
Conclusion: The AJAH HEADS of the Gray, Yellow, Green, White and Brown, have been plotting to re-unite the Tower and save it from the foolish Blues and Reds. The Ajah heads have not shared their plans with the new Sitters- and maybe not any of the Tower Sitters. The five pre-split Sitters w/ the Rebels are working for the Tower Ajah Heads! Maybe from the very beginning. The Ajah Heads are saving them spots in a re-united Tower Hall- Janya is not part of this conspiracy, and thus no spot has been saved for her. The Ajah Heads w/ the Rebels may also be plotting w/ the Tower Ajah Heads!
Supporting Evidence:
1)Egwene comments on the importance of Ajahs- even to the point of Ajah first, Aes Sedai second.
2) Plots of the Black Ajah: I will post under the title "Delena's Goal"
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1
Tamyrlin: 2003-02-04
I think you may be on the right track. How do you think they planned to go about putting the Tower back together? Were they responsible for Egwene being caught? I was thinking along the lines that they were setting up scapegoats.
2
Elder Haman: 2003-02-04
Further Evidence:
The Tower Sitters who went to Eladia and insisted on negotiations with the rebels did not want to be there: The Green Sitters in particular said they had been ordered (by the Captain-General) to insist on negotiations.
I don't know if the Ajah have a grand scheme to overcome the split- they may just be hoping they can end the dispute w/o bloodshed.
A thought- what if that's why the pre-split Sitters stood for Egwene? Maybe they thought a novice as amyrlin was more expendable, or could be shoved aside and made a novice again once the Tower was reunited under Eladia.
They didn't count on Egwene being as succesful as she has been- or that Eladia would pursue such dreadful policies (under Alvarin's duress of course). This is going to be interesting...
3
Anubis: 2003-02-09
I think that this is being done to undermine leadership. one leader making bad and good choices but acting quickly is a much better crisis leader then a congress or hall. if the tower is unable to act then they will be worthless.
4
Nateosis: 2003-02-11
My gut tells me it is similar to a "shadow" government like some countries have. . .in the event of a catastrophy, the real leaders go into hiding, and some ppl make things work behind the scenes. . .perhaps the REAL sitters just dont want to expose themselves?
All hail the White Ajah!! lol
5
Elder Haman: 2003-02-13
I think the "real rulers" as you put it, are the Ajah Heads. Collectivly, I think they are even more powerful than the Amrylin.
6
Anubis: 2003-03-01
you are missing the point. an effective shadow government, as long as they werent dark friends, would be an effective tool against the dark one and his desire to make chaos. the point about the sisters being too young is that they are unexperianced and full of ideals and because of that, are unable to make unanimous decisions and work together.
7
Janstince: 2003-03-10
I'm not so sure about that. They seem to work together just fine in the rebel camp. When they stand for war against Elaida, and when they agree to bring about discussions with the Tower, and when they use that to insinuate that talks should begin with the Black Tower. However, my question is this: if the Ajah heads in the Tower have enough power to choose who is the ajah head in the rebel camp, or vise versa, or if there is no head in the rebel camp, and they still report to the Ajah head and she has enough power to choose a sitter over all objections, why wouldn't they just order their members to come home? The shadow government would only work if they had that kind of power to call on.
8
Weird Harold: 2003-03-12
"Posted by: Elder Haman
Before CoT I thought that perhaps the Tower AS were leaving spots open for the returning Sitters who had left.... CoT has confirmed this idea- and expanded it..."
I think that CoT actually exposed the "Young Sitter" problem as merely an aspect of a wider change in the Pattern, which I think of as the "Never Trust Anyone Over Thirty" theory.
Beslin, about Mat's age, has succeeded Tylin on the throne of Altara.
Tuon, nearly 20, will take command of the Return (at minimum)
The Heads of Houses Dyelin brings to support Elayne are all just barely adults, if that.
Elayne is going to take the thrones of Andor and Cairhien by the time she's 21.
All over the WoT, people under Thirty are rising to Thrones and other positions of importance.
Finally, the Young Sitters are all under 100 -- with the effect of slowing, that puts them at, or under, a biological age of Thirty.
There are some exceptions to the "Under Thirty" grouping -- Darlin Sisneros, for example, is described as "in his middle years" and is fated to be the King of Tear and die in bed (according to Min's viewing.) This is just one of those "exceptions that prove the rule," so to speak. The general trend throughout Randland is towards younger, less rigid, people in positions of command and authority. The Young Sitters problem is only one aspect of this wider trend.
9
Anubis: 2003-04-12
Well maybe the old guard is the bad thing. rhomanda and lelaine are certianly not a good thing for the hall, they disagree on everytihing it is possible to disagree on. so maybe the aja heads choosing younger more flexible sitters is them trying to fix things.
10
ranman38: 2003-07-23
I have to say the young sitter thing is just a turn of the wheel. Those who support Elayne are also very young. Tuon is young, lots of young novices, etc. It is a red herring that has everone thinking it is more than it is.
11
Rhodric: 2003-07-27
if it is simply the turning of the wheel, then there is still a purpose.
the wheel is weaving the pattern so that all the leaders in most regions are young. i think this is because of the time in history; the time of the Dragon Reborn. the DR brings great change, and a world led by a younger generation will be more willing to accept these great changes.
but yes i don't think it's some master scheme by the BA or other Ajah's.
12
Elder Haman: 2003-10-17
Someone asked why the Ajah heads don't just order everyone to come back to the tower? Well first of all the Ajah heads are not dictators- they have specific powers- appointing sitters, ect. So some might not obey them. Second, none of the Blue would come back, and the other Ajah heads believe they need them. SO they are trying to make peace. But I think they made a mistake- I think they (through the Tower Sitters among the rebels) influenced the selection of younger Sitters who could be shoveed aside after a reunion, but- opps, they outnumber the Tower Sitters! Not to mention Romallle (sp? the Yellow Sitter) showed up, and shes anti-Eliada. Now the young Sitters have the bit in their teeth and are ruining the plan for a peaceful reconciliation.
13
Deadsy: 2003-10-17
Romanda. I agree with your other post that most of the former Tower sitters are spies (for ajah heads, not Elaida), or just there to try to corral everyone back to the tower as best they can w/o a war & including the blues
14
Rhodric: 2003-10-20
wow i totally disagree with my last post here. that was months ago! i'm a changed man!
Elder Haman, i 100% agree with this theory, and it supports my Shevan as Mesaana theory. i think i will still write up my Young Sitter theory, which is basically an extension of yours. i mean, mine will have quotes, lol.
Janya is probably black, and actually 'rebelled' (IMO due to Mesaana's orders to she could kill and become Shevan).
15
Elder Haman: 2004-03-30
I've been thinking about Tamyrlin's question if this Pattern is related to Egwene's capture.
Personally I believe it's clear that Egwene's captors were expecting a novice, not the Amyrlin Seat. Therefor it could not have been a betrayal aimed at Egwene personally, but rather aimed either at A) Sabotaging the plan to block the harbours, or B) allow the capture of a novice who has learned new skills (weaves) that the Towers Sisters could use. I feel A) is the more likely reason.
Now we have three suspects:
1)The Black Ajah
2)The Old Tower Sitters amoung the Rebels
3)Nicola: with the caveat that Nicola could be an instument of either of the first two- or acting alone.
The Black Ajah: Their goal is clear: Prevent peaceable reunification. Therefore under Motive A), the Black Ajah would only betray Egwene if they believe that blocking the harbours would lead to Elaidia's capitulation- which I find unlikely. Under motive B) The Black Ajah want he Tower Aes Sedai to learn new weaves so that they are a better match for the Rebels? Maybe, but it sounds weak.
The Old Tower Sitters Amoung the Rebels: Their goal is also clear: Reunify the Tower peaceably- probably under Eladia. Under Motive A) They would have strong reasons to oppose the blocking of the Tower Docks, but also would find it difficult to oppose it openly- thus could very likely betray an expendable young novice who would also serve as a scapgoat to blame for the failure (you should have known better than to send a novice to do a Sister's work). Under Motive B) they would more likely betray Leane, who actually knows alot more of the new weaves- also Motive B is very weak for this.
Nicola: Her goal is also clear: Become a powerful Aes Sedai by whatever means neccesary- therefore she might offer either A or B as a bribe to the Tower Aes Sedai for lessons (that being he modus operandi), but she'll soon find that Elaidia is a far harsher mistress than Egwene. The main diffuculty with Nicola is that she lacks opportunity to have this knowledge.
Both the Tower Rebel Sitters and The Black Ajah (via Delena) had access to the plan of blocking the gate with sufficent time to send a warning to the Tower.
My conclusion: Egwene was betrayed by the 5 Tower Sitters among the Rebels. The question is, did the Tower Ajah Heads warn Eladia? Or did they arrange the capture themselves? If they did arrange the capture themselves, will they immeadiatly turn Egwene over to Eladia? Or will they keep her hidden as a trump card? When Aes Sedai play the Great Game amoung themselves I am reminded of a quote from another series "a feint within a feint within a feint."
16
Nae-blis: 2004-03-31
I agree, this makes good sense, by putting forward young sitters, the Ajah heads could be preparing for a backlash of penances if either Elaida or Egwene finally control the Tower. This would save both the Ajah's blushes, and also the Head's. But how could they contact the Ajah heads in the rebel Hall without someone finding out. Could this be connected to the sending of sisters from the rebels to
'spread lies about the reds'. This seems a bit of a risk for not a huge gain, could the other point of this to be encouraging Ajah heads to converse between the rebels and the Tower
Any thoughts?
17
kikyo: 2004-03-31
I agree Elder Haman. I think the Ajah heads have been laying plans to reunite the Tower and shuffle everyone back to their "rightful" positions, by picking sitters that are not quite right, who they feel will be easily shoved aside when the time comes.
They plan to accomplish their goal through the negotiations that are taking place. However, I think that Egwene did not cooperate exactly as they she would. I don't think they would expect her to confine the terms she would accept so narrowly.
They probably thought that what with "puppet" Amyrlin Egwene and "figurehead" Amyrlin Elaida, they could go ahead and ignore what the Amyrlins wanted, come to some sort of agreement about uniting the Tower on their own that involved punishment for both Egwene AND Elaida for things they did wrong and the selection of an entirely new Amyrlin.
18
kikyo: 2004-03-31
I agree Elder Haman. I think the Ajah heads have been laying plans to reunite the Tower and shuffle everyone back to their "rightful" positions, by picking sitters that are not quite right, who they feel will be easily shoved aside when the time comes.
They plan to accomplish their goal through the negotiations that are taking place. However, I think that Egwene did not cooperate exactly as they she would. I don't think they would expect her to confine the terms she would accept so narrowly.
They probably thought that what with "puppet" Amyrlin Egwene and "figurehead" Amyrlin Elaida, they could go ahead and ignore what the Amyrlins wanted, come to some sort of agreement about uniting the Tower on their own that involved punishment for both Egwene AND Elaida for things they did wrong and the selection of an entirely new Amyrlin.
19
dragonsceptor: 2004-03-31
Elder Haman,
You are missing one of the groups who may have been responsible for Egwene's capture, Elaida and her supporters.
Elaida has the motive (save her skin) and the opportunity (now that Alvairin is out of the picture) to personally order some disruption tactics. This is further supported by Gawyn's runin with the Tower AS. I think that Elaida is behind it. She had already deduced that the SAS must have learned how to travel as well. I just don't think she was expecting Egwene and considers that a bonus.
20
Elder Haman: 2004-04-01
I think the Tower Ajah Heads have good control over the Tower Ajah, (excluding Red and Blue), but have lost control over the Rebel Ajah. For example, we know that the Rebel Green Ajah head is not reporting to the Tower Green Ajah head- so we can not dedecue the others positions.
I think the only influence the Tower Ajah Heads have in the Rebel camp are the 5 Old Tower Sitters, who are now Sitters in the rebel Hall (one from each Ajah). I think the main difficulty is that the Young Rebel Sitters are not making good patsies but are showing a lot more backbone than expected- due to Rhomanda, Suian and Egwene. Yes I say Rhomanda because she's the only senior (in both power and age) non-Blue Aes Sedai who has tied her colors to the mast. Without her, and without Suian and Egwene's munipulations, the Rebels would very likely have whittled away to the Blue's and their Warders just as Eladia (and likely the Tower Ajah Heads) expected.
This is why preventing the closing of the Harbours was so important to the Old Tower Sitters, they are losing the initative- especially due to the declaration of War- and are deperate to prevent the Rebels from believing they can win.
21
Elder Haman: 2004-04-02
Well obviously, Eladia could be behind the capture of Egwene- but that is not the question. The question is: Who told Eladia that the Rebels were going to attack the harbour chains. How did she know to have someone waiting there? Because the were obviously waiting in ambush for a known attack. So someone betrayed Egwene and The Black Ajah, The Old Tower Rebel Sitters, and Nicola are the only reasonable suspects. Unless you want to assume Eladia had a foretelling.
22
Frenzy: 2006-04-13
KoD pretty-much cements this theory. I'd lay it out, but this is in the pre-KoD section, and i'll await Tamyrlin's say-so before I spoil things.
