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by a dragonburned fool: 2004-06-29 | 6 out of 10 (2 votes)

Previous Categories: Lord Rodel Ituralde's Plans

There is lot spoken about Ituralde's plans earlier, but some specific details that can be concluded with good degree of proof are left without being mentioned yet IIRC, and here I want to set it out. But the main purpose of this theory is not the mere description of Ituralde's possible plans, but rather the possible implications of his actions on the relations between Seanchan and Rand, and also the possible threat on Two Rivers and Andor.

Ituralde's PoV gives really a lot of details about his considerations on the future campaign. The most important two things we have are 1. his last sentence about the furious seanchan generals who could not guess where he's leading them, and the second plan if these furious generals guess (this another plan is what is more interesting here); 2. his thoughts when he is asked could somebody anyway defeat Seanchans with their damanes.

Let begin with #2. The question about the greatest advantages of the Seanchan is rosen, and Ituralde thinks about the damanes. He thinks about a second one of the greatest advantages of the Seanchans - the raken scouting. So: two main problems for any campaign against Seanchans. But, so thinks further Ituralde, a general adapts to difficulties. Now comes the most interesting part: Ituralde thinks about some specific means to neutralize the two greatest advantages of Seanchan. He mentions darkness and storms, that make both damane and rakens not so effective. And he mentions also some Domani weather specialists, that make advantage of Domani before Seanchan.

So Ituralde's PoV seems to say it in plain text, how he plans to fight damanes and rakens: Ituralde has weather specialists and would use the advantages of storms and maybe darkness. In other words, he intends to use low visibility. Rakens are so dangerous because of what they see, and damane can inflict damage when they see where to channel. Quite simple. We don't have details what are these Domani weather specialists exactly. But, first, they are more then one, because Ituralde said "an" weather-teller, not "the" weather-teller. And they can obviously tell when and where there would be a storm, maybe also where and when there would be a mist. That looks like the ability to "listen to the wind" known to Two Rivers wisdoms, and it maybe is a passive ability not needing active channeling, that can be detected by damane, or at least a very small amount of OP for to be detected. Maybe they are another kind of ability, local to Arad Doman and held secret from AS like the Sniffers in Shienar. Whatever it is, Ituralde has a trump against the Seanchan advantages.

For to use effectively a fight in conditions of low visibility, some things more are required. You must know the battlefield very well, while the enemy must know it poorly, you must have good hideouts and bases, while the enemy must be far away from his supply and bases. If the terrain is a dense forest in the mountains, that would be very well too.

Now the other details from Ituralde's PoV come into the picture. First, Ituralde ordered to all the troopst faithful to the King (almost all the nobles who are not Dragonsworn) to hide in the mountains. If Ituralde would make a trap, he will need his forces in the place of the trap, and he will need also preparations of the place before he comes: supply, hideouts, etc. So most likely the location of the trap is around the place where these troops are hiding. So Ituralde intends to lead the Seanchans in the mountains.

The best mountains Arad Doman has, are the Mountains of Mist. Mountains of "MIST": the name speaks about itself alone: it's a place known because of it's mists. IIRC it's said that there are allways mists there. And that was said about the east side of the mountains, while the Domani side is the side closer to the ocean, where a mountain would gather more mists and clouds. Mists are exactly what Ituralde needs.

Let look at the map. The point at the Arad Doman theritory at the Moutains of Mist that is the most south, is the city of Katar. If Ituralde wants to bring the the Seanchan to his land in the Mountains of Mist (and he wants that), and if he wants not letting them deep in Arad Doman territory (and he wants it not), he will bring them to the region of Katar.

Katar is an interesting place. It is a very rich city, maybe the second at rich and importance in Arad Doman. It is a centre of iron industry: there are rich iron mines around. the rulers of Katar allways attempts to get away from Domani power and strive for authonomy, as the glossary says, they often need to be reminded that they are part of Arad Doman. Ituralde won a victory over the rulers of Katar very soon, after Falme. Katar is a very old city with rich history, it was the capital of one of the Ten Nations - Safer (so it has Ogier garden and Waygate). Katar is one of the very few cities that are on the map without being capitals, and almost all other cities of that kind on the map have very well-visible role in the storyline. It is also significant that Katar became an entry in the glossary to CoT. The two last things could indicate that Katar will become part of the story soon.

Katar is rebelous and half-independent, and Ituralde's primary task is to make Arad Doman whole again. A Seanchan threat to Katar would bind Katar closer to Arad Doman. Katar is rebelous - Ituralde wouldn't spare Katar so much, as other parts of Arad Doman, it's half-foreign land. Katar is rich - so Ituralde's troops can have good rearlines and good supply, and they can build expensive hiden fortifications. Ituralde knows the region of Katar very well and his information is recent - his recent victory there. Katar has lot of mines - the Domani can use underground hideouts, they can dig tunnels for to come from under the earth suddenly upon Seanchans and to go away where Seanchans don't expect they can. South of Katar we see on the map a forested region, that's name suggests that this forest is especially dense, mirky and fearful. So high mountain as Mountain of Mists would definitely offer some terrain very convenient for traps and ambushes. So the region a little bit in south of Katar is very convenient for Ituralde's plan.

Seanchans moved into Almoth plains and begin to send rakens to Arad Doman. But there are Aiels in the plains that makes their positions there not stabile. And the lack of conflict between seanchans and Domani now means that Seanchans are yet far from the Domani border. Ituralde intends, after his strike in Tarabon, to run through the whole Almoth plain with the Seanchan army after his heels. Such a long chase would bring the Seanchans far from their bases, would make them tired when the fresh Domani forces come in the game, and will force them to begin the chase without making all the proper preparations for such a campaign. So when Seanchans come to Katar, they will have problems with supply, while Domani will have good supply. For a fight in that high mountains in the winter it's an important thing.

Ituralde is thinking, that maybe Seanchan commanders would be angry enough to not realize where he is leaading them. There is an opinion, that he intends to lead them in a stedding. It is not excluded as a possibility, but the stedding version has some issues and no support. The issues are that such a plan will need abandoned steddings, while the known steddings in the Mountains of Mist are IIRC populated. And having in mind all the low visibility factors of the terrain, and Ituralde's explicite intention to use that factors, a stedding could even be not needed against the damanes. And a stedding will work only against damane but not against rakens, while Ituralde sees both that factors as the main trumps of the Seanchans.

I think that Ituralde wants to lead the Seanchan just into an ambush. In that case it's allways important that an enemy doesn't realize where you lead him. And the enemy being very angry helps a lot.

But Ituralde thinks also about the possibility that the Seanchans notice his trap, or survive it. And Ituralde has "another plan". Now it's time to discuss that "another plan".

What could it be? Another trap? There's no much sense in it, because when your persecutor copes with one trap it would be much much more difficult to lead him into another. The persecutor would be not so angry, and even if angry, he will be much more carefull about possible traps. Ituralde is sure that the second plan will work, so it's more sure then the first. If it was a trap, why Ituralde don't apply it first? So I don't think that the second plan is another trap.

Ituralde wants to secure Arad Doman agains Seanchan and let the other world do it as the world can. Ituralde is thinking specifically about the Dragon, and decides that the most important now is the integrity of Arad Doman. So he can try to redirect the Seanchans away from Aard Doman if his first trap fails.

For to redirect them away he must find something to engage them. West from Arad Doman there's nothing to engage them instead of Arad Doman itself. He cannot bring them into Saldea and the Blight without letting them go through the whole Arad Doman first, that's even worse then letting them go with their plan against Arad Doman. So the only possibility left is to lead them in east direction through the Mountains of Mist.

East from the Mountains of Mist there is something to engage Seanchans. Ituralde knows that Rand is in Caemlyn (his last information IIRC) and gathers there male channelers. There are Domani Asha'mans, so Taim's reacruitment groups have lot of chance to make their work in Arad Doman. In Arad Doman where there are lot of good organized Dragonsworn (not the bandits like in Altara and Murandi), Taim's recruiters could even speak about the Black Tower openly, so that Ituralde could know that the Black Tower is powerful. Ituralde definitely sounds not sceptical about the chances of the Black Tower to be an important force. So Caemlyn direction seems to be Ituralde's second plan.

In Two Rivers there are many refugees from Arad Doman and Almoth, who came through the Mountains. So there is a mountain pass that ends in Two Rivers. It's not an easy to be passed path, but it can work for miserable refugees, so it can work also for Ituralde's plans. Before that the trade between Arad Doman and the east would prefer the river way via Saldea. Maybe there is also a pass between Katar and Baerlon, but I'll expect that this path would go first somewhat north into Arad Doman, and Ituralde would definitely prefer an way that don't come in Aard Doman.

I have the feeling that the Seanchan would survive Ituralde's trap and will force him to use his second plan. In other words, a Seanchan invasion in Two Rivers is to be expected.

Ituralde would also make his best to cause war between Seanchan and Rand. Having in mind Rand's current peace negotiations with Seanchan, that can make the situation very complicated.

Another important thing that would impact the relations between Rand and Seanchan is the usage of Dragonsworn in Ituralde's plan. The Taraboner Dragonsworn that will be used to make Seanchans especially angry, have no special reasons to hide the fact that they are Dragonsworn after they begin to make troubles. Seanchans will have the impression of well organized campain od forces faithful to the Dragon Reborn against the Empire. The Seanchan would not believe, that Rand has no control over these Dragonsworn. The Domani Dragonsworn in the trap would make the situation even worse.

So Ituralde's campaign would not remain a local part of the story, but will have very important consequences for the main storyline.
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Comments

1

Tamyrlin: 2004-09-21

(Frenzy for Tamyrlin)
Ituralde has people he calls Weather Wise. People akin to Wisdoms who can predict the weather, i'd say, NOT people who can manipulate the weather. Something that significant the White Tower would find out. After all, they know about Sniffing, just not enough to do anything about it.
So the only advantage Ituralde's forces would have would be to time their efforts with predicted bad weather. Not exactly a good way to go.
Ituralde's idea of painting his own Taraboners to blend in with the Seanchan is mroe astute. Guerilla warfare to strike at an enemy in a better position than you.
But Katar--that's a definite possibility. Goading the Seanchan into attacking your fortified location, then pouncing on them. The biggest problem with this is Ituralde would be betting that the Seanchan don't send enough forces to beat the trap in Katar. That's a very shaky bet, considering how 'easy' the Seanchan have taken Tarabon, among other nations.
But sending the Seanchan towards the Black Tower... that would be clever. The Seanchan would be ground to sausage, and if they manage to take out a few male channelers, all the better.

2

Callandor: 2004-09-21

Two things first off.

1. Get quotes, adf.

2. It's damane in the plural form ;)

Problems with bad weather, is that it's bad for both sides. Ituralde has a great plan, and a super secret back up, and him being a great captain, and promising success.... it's got to be a heck of a good one.

The stedding plan is still my favorite, although it might not work too well, since there are more stedding in Seanchan than in Randland (thanks to RJ clarification), so they most likely know of them and their dangers (however, they don't know their locations in Randland, so it can still work well).

Weird Harold can give good advice to this, much better then me.

3

ilgross: 2004-09-22

The Katar idea is a very good one, except I don't think that one of the great captains would rely solely on the weather has hes ally.'

I definetly think the seddings will be used, but I think an invasion of the Two Rivers would be unlikly

4

IkilledAsmodean: 2004-09-22

Callandor, I must point something out here. According to the theory, it wouldn't simply be bad weather. As you said, that works both ways.

It'd be bad weather, far from reliable supply, against an enemy who has the high, fortified ground. Even should the Seanchan send thousands upon thousands, a favorable positioning and supply level, alon wiht a great captain and his creativity, could easily hold a 3 or 4 to 1 assault, and prolly a bit more, with some luck.

And then, let's take it a step further, using the geography and the general aggresiveness we've seen in Seanchan attacks. Let's say our friend Rodel retreats through the Mountains, as suggested, and then stops just the other side. Whatever Seanchan forces he pulled up there, are essentially gone.

And then, allow me to amend some of the ideas of the original theory. Let's say a portion of his strength hides in Katar. A goodly portion, notwithstanding those form Katar itself. Should he pull whatever is elft of the Seanchen into the moiuntians, and then stop them, the hidden and held forces could cut off the rearguard, and trap the Seanchan completey in the mountains, where the mist covers any chance of real assistance they could get.

As for his second plan...it seems to me as though he'd need Rand for whatever it is, judging by his general thinking of where Rand is, and such.

5

Great Lord of the Dark: 2004-09-22

Dragonburned Fool, this is one of the best thought-out theories you've ever made, and the best regarding Ituralde's plans I've read yet.

I think it's unlikely that the Seanchan can be led much farther West than the Two rivers, and even that is pushing it.

After reading your theory, I'd buy that Katar is where he wants to lead the Seanchan, and that while they are there, he and the undercover Taraboners will strike at Tarabon, cutting off the Seanchan in Katar from their supplies/base, causing a revolt among the Seanchan Taraboners, and pushing the Seanchan from the countryside. If Seanchan resources are being diverted to a tar valon invasion, then Ituralde's control can be more secure. I don't see how they could get Tanchico back though. With an urban setting, and a large port, Ituralde can't get it back.

6

a dragonburned fool: 2004-09-22

Pity that I haven't said it explicit enough in the theory - I don't think that the Domani Weather Wise can manipulate the weather. From what we have about them in the books it's lear that they can predict the weather, and that they can predict it very good, but manipulating weather was not indicated in the books, and it would be not allowed by the Tower. What I'm stating is, that in the given case, the ability to predict weather is a substantial advantage alone and gives to the Ituralde's troops the possibility to cope with the Seanchan.

The Mountains of Mist are called so for a reason. The part of them south of Katar is a part of the mountains with a pass to the east, close to that very great lake, we see on maps in BWB and it is on the west slope of the Mountains, i.e. on the side of the Mountain that's closer to the ocean. Also the time of the year is equal to early spring, i.e. time when more dynamics of weather is to be expected. So, I think in that time and in that place there would be plenty of mists, storms, rains and other bad weather, so much that Ituralde could even rely on it.

It's true that bad weather is bad for both sides, but the decisive is what the bad weather will mean for the two major military advantages of the Seanchan - the damane and the rakens. Actually without the advantages of the damane and the raken the Seanchans would be relatively equal to the domani forces and the domani could use their advantages of knowing the land, of having well supplied bases (while the Seanchan will have not) and of surprise, I think they could also outnumber a bit the seanchan army coming after them.

Raken are dependent of the weather for to be useful to see what is to be seen. Damane have to see where to channel for to be used. If they don't see they also can channel, but the most effective usage of damane is to smash the opponent's troop while they close to the seanchan, but when the enemies fight face to face there is no much usage of damane. From the books I have the impression that the mass battle damane uses weaves with the effect of an artillery ammunition, not the precise weaves that can kill only one of two men fighting on swords. Damane usually use explosion, fireballs, lightnings - all of them useful against an enemy who is not meshed with your own soldiers in the chaos of a hand-to-hand battle. Mists and storms (especially in the night) can make it possible for the domani to close the Seanchan without the damane to can interfere efficiently, and once they close, it will be late for the damane to be efficient.

I'll expect that Ituralde will hide most of the time in his bases under the earht (can be prepared, because the miners of Katar) and attack only when and where the worst visibility will be. IMHO that would be enough of advantage.

7

Stilicho: 2004-09-22

Good two points: use of an abandoned stedding to help neutralize damane and use of foul weather to neutralize Raken. While the foul weather would also hinder Domani forces, the effect on them would be much less if they were prepared for it in advance and knew approximately when the required conditions would be present. Prpoerly trained and equipped troops PREFER to attack enemies in adverse conditions because of the advantages such tactics give them over an inadequately prepared enemy. As for drawing the Seanchan into the trap, the use of Domani troops: 1) disguised as troops loyal to the Seanchan; or 2) Domani troops who swear the oaths only to turn on the Seanchan is sure to infuriate the Seanchan commander and contribute to his desire to make an example of the Domani forces. Thus, a headlong pursuit into a trap becomes more likely. If the Seanchan commander becomes suspicious, there is always the backup plan. However, I haven't seen anything convincing (yet) regarding the details of the backup plan. Some possible scenarios include: 1) Seanchan refuse bait entirely, so Domani continue to use diguises and/or false oaths to disrupt and demoralize Seanchan operations (if you can't trust your supposed allies...); or 2) Seanchan initially take the bait and pursue long enough to get their forces out of position for the Domani to launch a counterstrike somewhere behind the pursuing Seanchan army. Anyone seen anything that would hint at Domani backup plan?

8

fistandantilus: 2004-09-22

My only question is, why would a competent commander, and what we have seen of the Seanchan commanders they are all highly qualified, strech out their supply lines so far in what most people would see as an obvious trap? The Domani forces running away? We have already seen that trick used in the battle for Caemlyn. I cannot see the Seanchan falling for such a simple ploy. However, Ituralde could be counting on the fact that the seanchan, through their Listeners and raken and other sources, know about the iron and the money in Katar, and will follow him towards the city in hopes of taking it. In which case they would probably send a significanty larger force, as there would be fighting in an urban setting

9

Davian93: 2004-09-23

A note about ambushes from someone who used to have to plan contingencies for them. A great ambush stragedy is to lead the enemy into an obvious ambush and then have them "retreat" or move forward into the real one. Once you get them running organization tends to break down rather quickly.

As for the weather...think about the first phases of the Battle of the Bulge. The Germans did great with the overcast skies...things only went south when the skies cleared and the U.S Army Air Corps got involved again. Overcast and misty weather would be a huge advantage for Ituralde and a massive detriment to the Seanchan.

10

Jumai: 2004-09-23

On the invasion of the two rivers:

In Rand's portal stone other-life flickers, the ones in which he remains in the Two Rivers, the two rivers always learns of the seanchan long after they've crushed all opposition. The world's new masters is what they are called by the time a name starts to crop up, in the ones in which he dies before that, merely rumors of war.

This is not to say that the Seanchan can't go there, this is after all NOT what happened in the other lives by definition. But I think it cuts the possibility down a trifle.

11

Stilicho: 2004-09-24

Fistandantilus:

The answer to your question is that the Domani must do something to cause the Seanchan's emotions to overcome their caution. Judging from the extremely harsh manner in which the Seanchan treat those they deem traitors, suggests something like false oaths might give rise to a hasty Seanchan punitive expedition to make an example lest others try the same trick. Another possibility is the assassination of one of the Blood to create the required desire to punish at all costs. I don't know that either of these ideas is the one contemplated by Ituralde, but I strongly suspect he has some such ruse in mind to draw out an otherwise cautious Seanchan commander.

12

a dragonburned fool: 2004-09-26

Ikilledasmodean,

It's a good idea to cut the Seanchan's way back with the fresh forces. The only thing is, that the Seanchan don't use their damane effectively against these fresh forces. So Ituralde could try to block them in the mountains, but he will attack only when and where the visibility is bad enough. If possible he will take them in ring, and there are good chances for it to be possible.

fistandantilus:

"My only question is, why would a competent commander, and what we have seen of the Seanchan commanders they are all highly qualified, strech out their supply lines so far in what most people would see as an obvious trap? "

Ituralde is thinking about how he's hoping the Seanchans would be angry enough for not noticing where he's leading them into. Even though Seanchan have capable generals who can maybe keep their emotions under control, the challenge Ituralde prepares is so annoying that he will most likely master to make them follow him as he wants. His plan is to slap the Seanchan law in the land they think to be already put in peace. Ituralde will make a situation that Seanchans politicians will definitely order an attack and the generals will have no choice but to obey. And the commanders of the army against them will be angry. Also the trap will come only after very long chase, through the whole Almoth plain, i.e. maybe pair of weeks running away. So for the persecutors it would become a routine to run after the Domani, and when they come to the mountains, even if their commanders see it's dangerous, they will have the choice only between following the Domani despite of the danger or to turn back and go away ingloriously, for that the Seanchan commander will be severely punished by his politicians. Also even despite the defeat at Falme and near Ebou Dar, the Seanchans still can be arrogant enough to think they can beat any channelerless army with their damane, and they will know what kind of force they have running from them through the Almoth plains.

Jumai:

The situation now is different from the situation in all the if-futures Rand saw in the Portal stone, because of what Rand did after the Portal Stone.

In the if-future Rand saw in the Portal Stone the Seanchan come from west to Andor without being seen in Two Rivers. But in that case the Seanchan had no reason to come in Two Rivers. In that Portal-Stones futures there was no Falme and the Andoran army fought on Wetlanders side against the Seanchan in Arad Doman and the Andoran army retreated through the mountains near Baerlon and the Seanchan come after their heels. There are two passes trough the Mountains of Mist - 1. Arad Doman - Baerlon: it can be even used in current time, and it would be the more convenient way into Andor. 2. Katar - Two Rivers: it was unused until the time after Falme when refugees from Arad Doman and Almoth plain begun to go that way into Two Rivers. The only reason for Ituralde to use that way is to avoid Seanchan coming into Arad Doman (in the case without Rand's victory at Falme the Seanchan would invade Arad Doman much earlier and there would be no chance for Ituralde to use his plan to lead the Seanchans to Andor). The reason for the Seanchans to come to Two Rivers would be to follow Ituralde and to end with this annoying enemy. But once the Seanchan have more time spent against Ituralde, they will think also about the possible connectoin of this events to Rand (beginning with the Taraboner Dragonsworn that will make the Seanchan to think about organized by the Dragon diversion) and maybe they will think something also about Rand's birthplace once they are already there (especially Suroth and Semirhague could think out something).

I don't know what will happen when Ituralde and the Seanchan come in Two Rivers, I don't know when Rand, Mat or Perrin will find out and how they will react. Ituralde's intention would be to move the Seanchan further into the direction of the Black Tower. But I don't think they will have the time to go so far, because the Last Battle must begin meanwhile, and direct negotiations between Rand and Seanchan just begin - all that will change the situation a lot. But the coming of the Domani and Seanchan in Two Rivers will make the situation between Rand and Seanchan much more convoluted and delicate.

13

Jiana: 2004-09-29

This theory, along with two other recent ones ('Duplicate Personality Processing', and 'conserving energy?') have a common thread that I'm sure hasn't been mentioned yet, and all prove one thing conclusively:

Every single one of us are hopelessly addicted to the series and think about it wayyyy too much! :)

14

arcaneix: 2006-03-02

about the weather the lion of the north a king of sweden took about 6k men through a blizzard against 40k russians and routed them around 1200 or 1300 ad the weather works for whomever plans it.

15

Ishamael666: 2006-03-03

I highly doubt that Ituralde'll try and lead the Seanchan into the Two Rivers. KoD says that the Domani reinforcements came out of mountains int he southwest coast of Arad Doman-not the Mountains of Mist. So Ituralde's plan would have been to lead them near Bandar Eban. And what's waiting for him in Arad Doman, incidentally?

A couple hundred Asha'man and a couple clans of Aiel. Ituralde made a comment on how his plans would hold up short of the Dragon Reborn appearing in front of him in CoT, I beleive. Talk about irony.

16

Frenzy: 2006-03-05

Ishamael666 has a good point, the irony is delicious. But what will Ituralde do when he's running home with hell on his heels and finds the Aiel, Asha'man, Aes Sedai and the Dragon Reborn in his house? Will he see them as reinforcements, or will he see them as invaders, and himself caught between 2 enemy armies?

Mat Cauthon got the nascent Band out of a situation like that intact. Is Ituralde up for that?

17

Ishamael666: 2006-03-06

Rand told Dobraine to find the King of Arad Doman or find someone to set up as the Steward of the Lord Dragon, someone acceptable to everyone. Ituralde certainly would fit this position, so the Dragon's forces will be looking for Ituralde, not trying to fight them.

18

Callandor: 2006-03-09

They would be looking for Ituralde. But looking for him and finding an army aren't the same. A simple mishap in communications, and a big bloody mess can come about easily. They can be all well intentioned and trying to make Ituralde a Steward of Arad Doman -- and still inadvertantly kill him and/or much of his forces.

But I personally think that it will be perfectly fine, whether they've already communicated so far or will before a confrontation.