art by Darrell K. Sweet

Theoryland Resources

WoT Interview Search

Search the most comprehensive database of interviews and book signings from Robert Jordan, Brandon Sanderson and the rest of Team Jordan.

Wheel of Time News

An Hour With Harriet

2012-04-30: I had the great pleasure of speaking with Harriet McDougal Rigney about her life. She's an amazing talent and person and it will take you less than an hour to agree.

The Bell Tolls

2012-04-24: Some thoughts I had during JordanCon4 and the upcoming conclusion of "The Wheel of Time."

Theoryland Community

Members: 7653

Logged In (0):

Newest Members:johnroserking, petermorris, johnadanbvv, AndrewHB, jofwu, Salemcat1, Dhakatimesnews, amazingz, Sasooner, Hasib123,

Theoryland Tweets

Theories

Home | Index | Archives | Help

he Shaido with Sevanna will be completely destroyed soon

by Deadsy: 2003-10-13 | Not yet rated

Previous Categories: Faile and Perrin's Rescue

The Seanchan want to get rid of the Shaido, the people in the countries they're annoying want them gone, and Perrin isn't okay with just freeing Faile:

“A puzzle to solve, Faile to free, and the Shaido to destroy. That was all that mattered in the world.”

“He would not pay these Shaido for making Faile suffer. She would be afraid, and they had to pay for that, not profit from it.” (COT 8)

I think he will probably use some sneaky way to free her, and then attack the Shaido. He's horribly outnumbered right now, but I think every military group within 400 miles will become involved in this.

Location for Perrin, Shaido, and Seanchan: Perrin crossed the river Eldar into Altara, and followed the Aiel east on foot for some days (COT 5). Elyas finds the Aiel in ridge country nearly forty miles away to the northeast. (COT 8). And one of the Aiel mentions mountains to the east. If you look at the normal map in the books there are small mountains in North Altara. Perrin hasn't mentioned cross the main road going across North Altara or the main road that Mat is on.

How/why I think the groups will be involved:

The Whitecloaks: Asunawa wants to move east right into the same area: “Not so far if we move east, across Altara, my son, across the north of Altara. The Seanchan cannot have moved far from Ebou Dar yet.” (Cot Prologue). We don't know yet what they decided, but Whitecloaks have been rumored close to Perrin's group. Asunawa wants to move east because there is an army in Murandy. He doesn't even know who it is and wants to go there. They'll probably run right into the conflict and fight anyone they can see because they won't be able to decide who is more darkfriend.

The Band of the Red Hand: “I have . . . felt . . . something, for weeks now. Others in the Band have, too.

Not urgent, but always there. As if he needed me. As if I should look south, anyway. It can be peculiar, following a ta'veren.” (POD 18). I think they'll start moving toward Mat, or already have. I also think when they get closer they'll be able to tell if he suddenly veers off a few miles west.

Brotherless: They're mad at the Shaido for abandoning Ji'e'toh, and the Shaido don't like them. “None of the Shaido really trusted them, and the Brotherless themselves often seemed like men holding their noses, accepting what they considered a lesser wrong rather than embrace a greater, but no longer truly sure that it was lesser.” (COT 9). I think Faile will help Rolan toward the decision to rally them against the Shaido or at least leave.

Masema: His men will probably help against the Shaido. “‘Killing Aiel savages is doing the Light's work.' His eyes flickered toward the Wise Ones, and his smile was even colder than before. ‘I would appreciate the help, Perrin lied.' That rabble would be useless against Aiel. Still, they numbered in the thousands. And they had held off armies, if not armies of Aiel. A piece of that puzzle in his head shifted.” (WH 6)

Mat: Valan isn't going to worry about getting caught anymore now that he has the letter from Tuon. I think Mat, Thom, Juilin, the redarms, the AS and warders, the sul'dam, Egeanin, Domon, Selucia, Tuon, and Setalle will go on horseback now. In Lord of Chaos Perrin thought 35 miles in a day was good for a larger group than Mat's would be, and Mat hasn't seen snow yet, so he'd be able to move fast at the start. I think when they get close they will hear rumors of the Manetheren banner and want to know what it's about, and be drawn to Perrin. Perrin has thought of how fast news travels of it “‘I heard that you let the Red Eagle stay.' Perrin very nearly jumped. Even for just around the hill, news had traveled fast.” “Berelain would have to know the truth, yet if too many knew, that truth would spread from the next village they passed, the next farm.” (POD 9) This was when they were moving. Now they will be stopped for awhile.

Karede: I think he'll catch up to Mat when they're almost to where Perrin is. I think Tuon will decide not let them kill Mat, and they'll have heard of the 15,000 Seanchan. If Tuon wants to get to Ebou Dar fast, she might as well just go with Mat and order the DW Guards to follow because there will be to'raken there that can move 200 miles in a day. If they are close to Perrin, that would be faster than going back on Karede's horses. In fact, even if they don't hear of Perrin's army at all, they'll hear of the Seanchan for sure and even if Tuon decides to make Mat da'covale, they would probably still go closer to the Seanchan army to taken a to'raken. Then they will hear of Perrin's army and Mat will find some way to help out. (If Tuon finds out about the letter Perrin has from Suroth, and finds out it was originally given to Masema and his Dragonsworn, she will not be best pleased with her. But that is beside the point of this theory)

Total numbers in the armies:

56,000 Shaido (excluding Brotherless)

About 500 female channelers

62,200 in “Other armies” (including Brotherless)

30+ f. channelers

2 male channelers

[48,200 “Other” (excluding Brotherless)]

[70,000 Shaido (including Brotherless)]

70,000 non gai'shain Shaido (COT 9):

including about 14,000 Brotherless (POD 11, LOC 55)

About 500 Wise Ones & Apprentices (COT 8)

2,100 Perrin:

900 Winged Guards (POD 8)

900 or so Ghealdanians (POD 10)

less than 300 Two Rivers bowmen (WH 8)

about 25 Maidens, 6 Wise Ones, 3 Aes Sedai, 3 Warders, 2 Asha'man, Gual, Aram, & Elyas

12,000 Masema (COT 5)

15,000 Seanchan (COT 27):

at least 12 damane and some freaky animals

120 Karede (COT 4):

100 Death Watch Guard and 20 Ogier

6 damane

Mat: 3 Aes Sedai, 7 Redarms, Thom, & Juilin, (Aludra?)

9,000 Whitecloaks

10,000 Band of the Red Hand

So, still.. it's gonna be.. difficult. Here's some other stupid stuff. Edge just means if 5 of group A can kill 10 of group B, they have the edge.

Small Edge for Shaido: “He had fewer than two thousand lancers, and they would have been overmatched against an equal number of Aiel” (COT 8)

Big Edge for Other: “Fewer than three hundred Two Rivers men, who could wreak havoc with their bows” (COT 8)

Big Edge for Shaido: “That many Shaido would shred Masema's murderous rabble like a cat slaughtering a nest of mice” (COT 8) But if Masema gets killed then good.

Small Edge for Other: Seanchan have scary monsters.

Small Edge for Other: Band of the Red Hand with Mat's luck

Big Edge for Other: AS and Rand's Wise Ones because they know how to link.

Big Edge for Other: Asha'man. The 2 could probably kill lots of WO. Maybe they could become gai'shain and assassinate some before the real battle.

Huge Edge for Shaido: There are way too many WO. I don't see how they will be defeated unless they run because they're pissed that Sevanna got them into this mess by staying where they are.

Equal: Damane and Shaido Wise Ones. Both sides are strong and neither can link

Big Edge for Shaido: Whitecloaks. Gaul took out 7 or 8 by himself.

Huge Edge for Other: Mat and Karede are great generals.

Perhaps a tiny Edge for Other: Wetlander Gai'shain. Maybe a few of them will want to take revenge? At the least they'll try escaping and cause more chaos.

Small Edge for Other: DWGuard Ogier

Edge for Other: Shaido don't expect an attack and Sevanna underestimates the Seanchan and their “lizards”
You cannot rate theories without first logging in. Please log in.

Comments

1

Tamyrlin: 2003-10-14

Well done. I am too lazy to check on your numbers, but I agree that Perrin will attack and that a massive battle with ensue, will many of the sides fighting against possible allies, a free for all. Perrin will be intent on freeing Faile. She will want to free the others. There will be hundreds of small battles raging; it could prove to be a precursor battle for the one that is coming with Rand and the rest of the armies that are massing. We could have a large battle at the Black Tower, at the White Tower, and here, before the Final Battle. So, do you think Perrin will be the one to make the first move against the Shaido, or will someone else and he will take advantage of it?

2

Callandor: 2003-10-14

Like the numbers and the tactics; and totally agree that the Shaido will be the ones to be totally destroyed.

3

jofra: 2003-10-14

A great theory, Deadsy. I, too, think all those groups will be there. Just one more idea about dealing with the 450-500 Shaido WOs. Thereva and a great many others are thoroughly POd with Sevanna, and want to keep moving, get rid of the wetlanders, etc. In my opinion, the WOs will get rid of Sevanna, and get a move on. I believe the battle will not be so great as you picture, but certainly, all those armies will be there. With Tuon and Mat there, those Seanchan will be bound to the DR.

4

Cor Shan: 2003-10-14

You forgot about the Cha Faile with Perrin; I think around 300 or something.

Wolves too (Perrin might not want to, but he is a little [too] nuts over Faile)for caution.

5

Rhodric: 2003-10-14

Deadsy, you mentioned Karede catching up with Mat... is it possible that the Seanchan that Tallanvor has met up with are Karede, some deathwatch guards and those damane loyal to Tuon? if so it means Karede doesn't have to meet up with mat to join the 'Other' forces since he already is joining an alliance with Perrin?

well that's what i've often thought about who Tallanvor told Perrin about at the end of COT, and if that's the case, then IMO it strengthens your theory.

I agree. the shaido will be annihilated (mostly). the one problem (not with your theory, but that the characters have to overcome) is the matter of 500 Shaido wise ones. HUGE edge. hmmm.

6

Mairashda: 2003-10-15

speaking of shaido wise ones... what will happen to the ones that aren't killed? damane? watching a sul'dam (trying to) break a wise one might be an interesting thing to watch... or to read about and find out.

7

Korell: 2003-10-15

Wow i have to applaud you on your research of the matter i think this is an outstanding theory here is just an idea of what i would do if i was in Perrins position

I would send the 2 Ashaman in desguise into the camp via gateway near the WO portion of the camp and assasinate them in the night i think they could take out many of them the shiado dont know perrin knows where they are heck they probly arnt really all that aware that he is chansing them so feircly

one thing i do have to say is that i think that Masema will turn on Perrin in this battle and attack his forces however i think Perrin will strike Masema down

8

Dragon: 2003-10-15

I agree that Perrin will free Faile and destroy the Shaido in the end.

But there are two points in your theory which I think are not right.

First, I don't believe that Karede will catch Mat's party when they are almost at Perrin's army.

Kared started to search Tuon 4 days after Mat departed Ebou Dar with Luca's show.

Karede must be very close now and even if Mat's party would leave Luca very fast on horses, the Deathwatch Guards will probably catch them now (maybe they get informations from Luca or find the dead Aes Sedai.)

Then they will capture Mat, free Tuon and hurry back to Ebou Dar.

The second point is the involvement of the Whitecloaks.

You say the WC will run right into the conflict and fight anyone.

Why would they do that if they are absolutely outnumbered? Makes not much sense.

But they could become involved into the conflict nevertheless.

We know from Valda's POV in CoT that the leader of the Whitecloaks want to meet someone in the near.

Surely not the Seanchan after the last battle with them.

Also we know that Perrin and Masema didn't meet them (besides, they are Darkfriends for the WC of course).

So maybe the WC met the Shaido and will be involved in the conflict on their side to destroy Perrin, Dragonsworn & Seanchan.

9

Rand alThor15: 2003-10-16

What i think is that Perrin will free Faile discreetly and morgane and Lily (not sure if that's her name)...Morgane will tell Perrin who she really is : morgane (lol), her son's will hear about and how the WC treated her, Galad will get pissed off and lead the WC to join Perrin's forces and Gawyn will lead the younglings (they're around 2 or 3000 if i remember correctly) and join Perrin as well...true the WC will get beat up bad by the bad aiels, but let us not forget that the younglings were to be future warders and some of them actually beat warders older and more experienced than them, so i say they'll kick some ass which will do more then compensate for the loss of the WC.

thank you...hehe

10

rubbernilly: 2003-10-16

Gawyn can't ride to the rescue of his mother:

1) He would have to hear about it, and he is miles away from her. By the time it reached him, unless it came from Egwene, Elayne, or Galad, he would consider it a vile, painful rumor.

2) Gawyn is needed at the WT to help Egwene.

Besides, tying up *that* many loose ends is not RJ's style.

11

jofra: 2003-10-17

To reply to a post above:

The Younglings number about 300, not 2 or 3 thousand.

Besides, they are now involved nipping at Gareth Brynes flanks, on the orders of Elaida.

12

Deadsy: 2003-10-17

Rhodric: I think Karede could be that far by now, but I dunno if he'd get caught up in a war before he found Tuon. It would be interesting if it's him though.

Dragon: Karede was the iffiest part of the theory. It's possible he already passed Mat up thinking he'd hurry. Either that or he's slowly weaving back and forth to try to find them. For the WC, I thought they'd just run into it and join because they do a lot of rash things.

13

Anubis: 2003-10-17

personally i think that the brotherless are going to be the ones who determine the battle. i think that the brotherless are going to rise up against the shaido, but stick to abandoning j e toh. the ones that survive will be the remnant of a remnant that survives the last battle.

14

Vander: 2003-10-27

as for Shaido WOs, there are a lot of them, but how much can some of them channel? channeling ability doesnt count for as much among the wise ones, as we can see from Sorilea. likely theres a good many who wont be a lot of good in the battle becuase they cant channel much, not many of them granted, but some.

15

CJH68: 2003-11-02

My only concern with this theory is the involvement of the Whitecloaks -I do not think they are going to fight 'anyone'.

I suggest firstly that the Whitecloaks will only fight when it suits their own objectives. They have shown in the past that they are perfectly happy to idly stand by rather than joining a fight as witnessed in the Two Rivers Trolloc War.

Now that they've been rooted out of their stronghold by the Seanchan, a counter attack against them would seem the most likely course they would take. Thus, an alliance with the Seanchan would be extremely unlikely!

Equally as unlikely would be an alliance with Perrin, given their history and with the blood of Whitecloaks on Perrin's hands.

The only significant force they could be likely to ally with to overturn the Seanchan would be the Shaido and this seems to be their more likely choice.

So if the Whitecloak joined this battle, it would most certainly be on the side of the Shaido.

16

Balwer: 2004-04-15

In a way, the numbers don't even matter. We have, at most, three books until the Last Battle. In that time, Robert Jordan has to clear up the Shaido, the Seanchan, the Forsaken (or maybe in just leave them until the last battle), the Black Tower, the rebellion in the White Tower, the Andoran succession, Cadsuane helping him, the Borderland armies, Mat and Tuon, Padan Fain, Slayer, Moiraine, and probably a few others that I'm missing. Some of these may be taken care of at the Last Battle, but if RJ doesn't start trimming his plot down soon he's just gonna keep going at the same plodding pace as CoT and take another ten books to get to the Last Battle, which alone will take up another two books.

17

Zader: 2004-07-19

Any good tactics in battle require using your strengths against your opponent's weaknesses. I believe Perrin will have to rescue Faile with the current force he has at the moment plus the Seanchan force. The trump card for Perrin will be the lake five miles distant. Perrin's strength will be in knowing how to use the water of the lake. The water of the lake is bought in by aqueduct and this would indicate to me the lake is higher than the Town. The Seanchan force will be used to draw the Shaido in to a trap. Nobody wants to fight hand to hand around a Town, especially when you are out numbered. The Shaido will be drawn in to chasing the Seanchan force. The side of the lake will be blasted with the OP creating a giant hole, letting water run through a channel, creating a raging torrent of water. The Shaido, not being accustomed to so much water will not know what hit them. At this time the Seanchan force will be on high ground and will turn and attack any of the front group of Aiel not wiped out by the water. The Prophet's force will be used to attack any of the rearguard Aiel not wiped out by the water. The reason I believe this will succeed is because of Sevanna. I don't believe she learns from her mistakes, she will again use all her spears and hold none in reserve, just like Dumai Wells.